Short-term bitcoin:native holders are back above the sell line. Nevertheless, profit taking has stayed light. More on this topic, as well as the levels to watch in this week's Week On-chain. 👇

Bitcoin is still stuck beneath the edge of a thick resistance band. Moving above this level, would indicate a shift in long term market structure. A return lower would result in significant pain for late longs.

The blockchain trilemma: a network can strengthen two of decentralization, security, and scalability, usually at a cost to the third. Read our joint report with @ARKInvest on how Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana compare. 👇 glassno.de/4A8mp3F

Glassnode’s On-chain Model has re-entered the market for the first time since August 2025, when BTC was around $113,000. The current read: • Unrealized Profit Holding: Bullish • Selling Volumes: Bullish • Wealth Concentration: Bullish • On-chain Volumes: Bearish, but trending towards bullish 3 of 4 signals are now firing. The model avoided 29% of the subsequent downturn and has now re-entered around $80,000. Average holding periods are 6–9 months. Let’s see how this plays out over the months ahead.

Altcoins in one chart. 🟢 Market cap is still up 421% since 2019 🔴 The average altcoin is down 94% from its peak Yes the cap has cooled since its late 2024 high, but nowhere near as much as the coins themselves. Old projects die and new ones replace them. There's over 10x more alts now than in 2019.

After large market moves, staying objective and level-headed is difficult. Our latest weekly report walks you through the data: the liquidation cascade, who bought the squeeze, and the supply now sitting overhead.

Strong hands are buying bitcoin:native. Bottoms are formed when profit taking slows and conviction buyers step in. This setup looks similar to what we saw during 2022. The largest increase in BTC held by conviction buyers occurred when BTC dropped to $60k in January.

Polled Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Gemini on one question: What % of Americans will have jobs in the future? Not nearly as bearish as I expected.

Update on Glassnode signals: They continue to outperform. Despite the recent pump: • Top model is Short • All others are Out No chase. No FOMO. On-chain structure still leans defensive. The edge is patience. #Bitcoin #Crypto #OnChain

What caused the market to decline? 1. Whale Distribution: Large holders sold more than 180,000 BTC from late December through the end of January, adding meaningful supply to the market. 2. Derivatives Liquidations: Significant liquidations in derivatives markets injected additional liquidity into an environment already facing excess supply and weak demand ~ adding approx. 39,000 BTC to supply. 3. Options Market Sentiment: Options markets have reflected bearish near-term sentiment since August 2025, with downside positioning accelerating in early December. 4. New Investor Capitulation: The share of BTC held by new wallets declined sharply (from approximately 23% to 17% of total supply) indicating selling by newer participants without sufficient new entrants to absorb supply. 5. ETF Outflows: Roughly 82,000 BTC have exited spot BTC ETFs since November 2025, further contributing to net sell pressure.

Crypto Insights Group (CIG) reports that the average blockchain directional fund was down –16.9% last year, while BTC fell –6.5% and ETH –11.5%. That’s clear underperformance. Many strategies still rely primarily on price and market data, missing the context provided by on-chain fundamentals and derivatives signals. A few years ago, Glassnode published a set of model portfolios demonstrating how on-chain data can be applied systematically. Those models, by contrast, outperformed. Averaging roughly +1% on the year. Better data → better decisions. If you’d like to explore these models further, feel free to reach out.

New Beta Release: Glassnode on Snowflake We’ve just released a beta Snowflake environment at Glassnode designed specifically for quantitative teams that need scalable, high-performance access to blockchain data inside their existing analytics stack. This unlocks: - Native querying directly in Snowflake - Faster workflows for research, modeling, and backtesting - Easier collaboration across quant, data, and engineering teams - Enterprise-grade governance and security If this is relevant for your team and you’d like early access or more details, send me a message and I’m happy to connect. #snowflake #quant #crypto

365-day change in balances across crypto entities: Exchanges, ETFs, futures & options markets, and government wallets have each grown or declined by roughly $10–30B over the past year. That may sound substantial until you realize corporate treasuries have increased by approximately $100B over the same period. #BTC #glassnode #MSTR

Glassnode's Chart of the Week is out, with analysis from yours truly. Catch the full breakdown here: piped.video/watch?v=H4K6l_T_…

BTC down 12% this month: Exchange inflows: 23k BTC (↓ pressure) Spot ETF outflows: 23.7k BTC (↓ pressure) Futures contraction: 1.4k BTC (↓ risk) Options expansion: 14.2k BTC (hedging) Corporate treasuries: 5.5k BTC (↑ pressure) #Bitcoin #OnChain #Glassnode