Short-term bitcoin:native holders are back above the sell line. Nevertheless, profit taking has stayed light. More on this topic, as well as the levels to watch in this week's Week On-chain. 👇

I’ve been loving the ability to use Glassnode Scouts. Without requiring any coding experience, it backtests individual metrics using machine learning, then shows you example portfolio strategies built around one or two metrics at a time. A really useful way to see which signals actually have predictive value. Here are a few examples 👇

What caused the market to decline? 1. Whale Distribution: Large holders sold more than 180,000 BTC from late December through the end of January, adding meaningful supply to the market. 2. Derivatives Liquidations: Significant liquidations in derivatives markets injected additional liquidity into an environment already facing excess supply and weak demand ~ adding approx. 39,000 BTC to supply. 3. Options Market Sentiment: Options markets have reflected bearish near-term sentiment since August 2025, with downside positioning accelerating in early December. 4. New Investor Capitulation: The share of BTC held by new wallets declined sharply (from approximately 23% to 17% of total supply) indicating selling by newer participants without sufficient new entrants to absorb supply. 5. ETF Outflows: Roughly 82,000 BTC have exited spot BTC ETFs since November 2025, further contributing to net sell pressure.

Crypto Insights Group (CIG) reports that the average blockchain directional fund was down –16.9% last year, while BTC fell –6.5% and ETH –11.5%. That’s clear underperformance. Many strategies still rely primarily on price and market data, missing the context provided by on-chain fundamentals and derivatives signals. A few years ago, Glassnode published a set of model portfolios demonstrating how on-chain data can be applied systematically. Those models, by contrast, outperformed. Averaging roughly +1% on the year. Better data → better decisions. If you’d like to explore these models further, feel free to reach out.

365-day change in balances across crypto entities: Exchanges, ETFs, futures & options markets, and government wallets have each grown or declined by roughly $10–30B over the past year. That may sound substantial until you realize corporate treasuries have increased by approximately $100B over the same period. #BTC #glassnode #MSTR

BTC down 12% this month: Exchange inflows: 23k BTC (↓ pressure) Spot ETF outflows: 23.7k BTC (↓ pressure) Futures contraction: 1.4k BTC (↓ risk) Options expansion: 14.2k BTC (hedging) Corporate treasuries: 5.5k BTC (↑ pressure) #Bitcoin #OnChain #Glassnode

Fascinating to see how Ethereum’s trading landscape has evolved. In 2021, volumes were ~50/50 between CEXs and on-chain. Today, futures dominate, making up ~73% of daily ETH volume. Institutional activity has reshaped market dynamics, and Glassnode tracks it all in one view.

Equity investors have had dynamic Excel data for decades. 📊 Now it’s crypto’s turn. 🚀 With Glassnode’s Excel Add-In, you can pull on-chain + market data straight into your sheets. Dynamic. Customizable. API-powered. DM me to learn more. #Crypto #TradFi #OnChainData #Excel

CIG just dropped their #crypto fund outlook: directional fund index is -8.64% YTD, with some funds down -43%. Brutal. Meanwhile, 4 of 5 @glassnode onchain models outperformed. No tweaking, just a sound framework. If you're managing crypto & not using #onchain data... why not?

Crypto exchanges are expected to hold reserves that reflect trader demand on their platforms. But take a look at this pie chart of current exchange reserves. Is this the allocation you’d expect? I’m shocked by how small the SOL holdings are.

We may hitting ATHs in price, but not in profit-taking. 🟠 Realized Profits 🟠 AVIV Ratio 🟠 Value Days Destroyed …all remain well below peak levels. This suggests we’ve still got room to run in this BTC rally. 🚀 #BTC #Crypto #OnChainData #CryptoSentiment

SOL is seeing: - Larger realized profit declines vs BTC, ETH, XRP - Lower NUPL vs peers - Weaker annualized funding rates Yet usage remains strong & long-term holders are accumulating. Is SOL quietly building the base for its next leg higher? #OnChain #SOL #Crypto #Altcoins

Exchange Risk Scores (%): Gemini: 6% Binance: 7% Coinbase: 11% Kraken: 22% ByBit: 29% Huobi: 49% Crypto.com: 55% Historically, anything above 75% should be considered problematic. DM for details. #Crypto #ExchangeRisk #CEX #CexCrypto

On April 17th at 3:00PM ET: Near-term strategy flipped bullish for the first time since January—when price was at $99K. We re-entered at $84,776. Current Signals: Futures Markets: Bullish Short-term Traders: Bullish Middle-term Traders: Neutral Let’s see how this one plays out

"Using historical data from #Glassnode, I modeled #Bitcoin’s mean price over the next 20 years. Would love to discuss & refine! If you’ve built similar models, share them—let’s compare. #BTC #Crypto #OnChainAnalysis #QuantFinance"

My guess is that the ETF's and legislation brought in institutional investors. Around this time, ETF's were created and the derivatives landscape grew extremely fast. Below is a quick example showing ETH open interest increasing 200% in a 6 month window

This model does not include trading fees. Below are estimated performance metrics since 2023 - Average annual return: 31% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.05 - Sortino Ratio: 1.52 - Drawdown: 15%

Been using 3M annualized funding rate models on @glassnode. Here’s the performance of a portfolio investing only in assets with the largest positive funding rate change over 30 days. The returns clearly show a drastic market shift in early 2024. Message me for details.

Glassnode’s Ethereum-altcoin market cap (ex-ETH & stables) hit an ATH in Dec, yet most tokens are far from their prior cycle highs. Why? Demand is strong, but an oversupply of altcoins dilutes price impact. #eth #Altseason2025 #ALTSEASON #erc20 #crypto

In Aug 2023, Glassnode & Ark-Invest introduced the AVIV Ratio, showing where active investors bought Bitcoin & their unrealized returns/losses. It’s still below 2021 highs, signaling room for growth this cycle. T3 users can get alerts—DM me to learn more! #Bitcoin #Crypto #BTC