Oil is still on its way to $200.
Since the last update, global money supply has grown by another $1.5 trillion.
That means demand destruction, let alone a global recession, is still far away.
Oil is on its way to $200.
The main reason is that global money supply still shows no real demand destruction, let alone a global recession.
Global money supply is basically all the money moving through the world economy. Look at 2022, when inflation and rising rates pushed it sharply lower.
There is an oil shortage. Oil prices will rise, inflation will rise, and interest rates will rise. As more money goes toward servicing and paying down debt, less money circulates through the economy, pushing global money supply lower.
If the Middle East escalates quickly, $200 could come very fast. The attack on Riyadh airport is worrying. But even if the conflict keeps dragging on, oil will still reach $200.
Look at the post below. The oil market is extremely tight.