You need to understand that bond yields aren't coming back down. Here's why 5% is the new normal: - Debt supply is exploding as the US needs $2.1 TRILLION this year alone - The old buyers are gone as central banks are selling & foreign appetite is fading - Price-sensitive private investors now set the price, & they demand 3% more to lend for 30 years than in 2020 There's only one real fix: Tax hikes & spending cuts. Good luck finding a politician willing to to that...

Yikes. The MOVE Bond Volatility Index is SURGING. It's just hit it's highest level since March. IYKYK...

Wow. Consumer Sentiment numbers just released show the declines since January last year. Republicans have seen the biggest % fall over that period. Inflation expectations also jumped from 4.0% to 4.6%. Toxic mix for the midterms.

Never thought I would see this: "Trump says he would be OK with China building cars in the U.S." That would put a nail in the coffin of US automakers. All you need to do is see how popular they are globally. Here in the UAE, they're 50% of the cars. In Asia, they dominate. Even in Europe, they are swarming the competition.

The US Energy secretary is begging oil company CEOs to "voluntarily" restrict diesel exports. Desperate times man.

US mortgage rates are exploding! Yesterday, the average 30-year rate jumped to 7.45% as bond yields surged. Just 7 months ago, it was 5.99%. That’s a 1.46% jump since February. For a $400K home loan, that’s ≈$390 more every month to borrow the same amount. The homeowner ladder is being pulled away before our eyes.

Central banks are not just hoarding gold, they are building a parallel system. From offshore RMB clearing and 22 consecutive months of Chinese gold additions to NATO members quietly moving reserves out of North America, the dollar escape route is already active.

The fact that even Trump is concerned about the Yen tells you something. He personally told the Japanese PM that he's worried about it Apparently more Bessent intervention is coming. ANYTHING to stop the government selling those treasuries to support the currency.

ANOTHER record in the Japanese bond market. 30yr yields just broke all-time-highs at over 4.2%. 10yrs ago, the yield was near zero. The country's debt load is finally catching up with it as the bond vigilantes are in control. The BoJ is in a tough spot.

Don't panic. There is a final plan to address the surging yields. And it involves the Fed. Debt monetisation is the end state. You don't own enough hard assets.

Scott Bessent has abandoned his previous 3,3,3 target in favour of the more ambitous 5,6,7 - 5% 10yr rates - $6 / gallon diesel - 7% mortgage rates

Wow. That didn't take long. Oracle shares are completely TANKING on the news that they've declared "force ​majeure" on these datacentre payments. The loans were already trading in distressed territory a few days ago (see below). Cracks in the AI trade are opening up.

SoftBank has now closed the biggest junk bond sale in history. $11.1B borrowed at up to 9.75% annual interest. Debt that was sold by Citigroup to index funds. All for SoftBank to further leverage its bet on OpenAI. I'm sure there is nothing to be concerned about here.

30yr US treasury yields have broken a new 22 year high. Yields are now 24bps higher than when the Treasury announced the buybacks last month. Today, the $6B of buybacks will commence. Another drop in the ocean against $40 TRILLION in debt.

Bessent doing his part to stop the treasury selloff with $6B buybacks.

The Trump-Xi meeting is underway. This comes as China's trade surplus with the US last month hit its highest level since Trump's return. - Bilateral gap +44% YoY - Exports to the US +34.4% in August - Surplus near $806bn so far this year Who's really winning the trade war?