You need to understand that bond yields aren't coming back down. Here's why 5% is the new normal: - Debt supply is exploding as the US needs $2.1 TRILLION this year alone - The old buyers are gone as central banks are selling & foreign appetite is fading - Price-sensitive private investors now set the price, & they demand 3% more to lend for 30 years than in 2020 There's only one real fix: Tax hikes & spending cuts. Good luck finding a politician willing to to that...

Sep 25, 2026 · 11:06 AM UTC

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Replying to @puckrin
This is why sovereign default and political collapse are routine events throughout history. Politicians will spend more and more until a big enough crisis causes them to lose complete control.
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Yep. Slowly, then all at once
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Replying to @puckrin
YCC + inflation would work.
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Yep. Debt monetisation
Nic
@puckrin
Sep 24
Don't panic. There is a final plan to address the surging yields. And it involves the Fed. Debt monetisation is the end state. You don't own enough hard assets.
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Replying to @puckrin
Even with tax hikes & spending cuts, I don't think the problem can be solved unless they slash spending by 99%. The problem isn't just the present debt. It's all the future promises they have made to people, which amount to $100 trillion or something absurd like that.
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There is literally nothing stopping this. Apart from the final end state:
Nic
@puckrin
Sep 24
Don't panic. There is a final plan to address the surging yields. And it involves the Fed. Debt monetisation is the end state. You don't own enough hard assets.
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more replies
Replying to @puckrin
So we should just keep buying US Equities 😂
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Hard assets better longer term escape plan
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Replying to @puckrin
We have a real fix at home: Massive spending and printing
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Replying to @puckrin
Another solution would be if the stock market crashes
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Replying to @puckrin
it should be noted that 6-7.5% is normal
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Replying to @puckrin
“5% is the new normal” may be too certain. The more durable shift is in who sets the marginal price of U.S. debt. As Treasury supply rises and less price-insensitive official demand retreats, private investors require more compensation to absorb duration. Recent Fed research finds the Treasury market has indeed become more price-sensitive. The question is not whether 5% lasts forever. It is how high the clearing yield must be for the next dollar of debt to find a buyer.
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Replying to @puckrin
This is exactly why precious metals are becoming ever more popular. The higher rates rise, the more the government has to print, devaluing the value of existing dollars. More people are turning to hard assets to protect themselves financially. They can't print more gold and silver.
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Replying to @puckrin
Term premium repricing is the whole story. Duration buyers got burned in 2022 and now demand real compensation. Every auction tail keeps the curve steepening. Front-end carry looks fine, the long end is where cushions vanish.
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Replying to @puckrin
Taped it on our US leg: the 10-year closed Sep-24 at 5.16%, its highest close since Jul-6 2007. The level is real. A new normal means staying there, and one print doesn't grade that
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Replying to @puckrin
If 5% really is the new normal, M&A adjustments aren't finished. Plenty of private company sellers still remember yesterday’s multiples while buyers are financing at today’s cost of capital. Something eventually has to give.
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Replying to @puckrin
BS. You hike taxes and you reduce tax receipts. It’s been proven over and over.
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Replying to @puckrin
1980s rates hit 19% There was Little Social Media then for Fear Mongering. Not saying you are but many do for $$$ and have a subscribe button. IWe knew times were tough It took me 6 months to find a min wage cook job. I had 3 yrs experience. Tons of restaurants closed.
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Replying to @puckrin
The sovereign tbill buyers have been gone for a long time. Interest rates are rising to prevent currency debasement as high oil raises price of everything. The buyers are banks nothing has changed there.
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Replying to @puckrin
1D thinking won’t get you there my man
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Replying to @puckrin
7% will be the normal soon.
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Replying to @puckrin
Money supply will expand at an ever more rapid pace BITCOIN
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Replying to @puckrin
Heavy burden of lots of boomer debt
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Replying to @puckrin
Totally agree. Simple math. @puckrin what impact do you expect for cryptos?
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Replying to @puckrin
Austerity didn't help Europe reduce their debt. Not sure why it would lead to a better outcome here. What we need - and it's basically impossible - is to spend rationally and build stuff we actually need. If the spending creates sufficient supply, demand stays w/o inflation.
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Replying to @puckrin
Cut waste fraud and abuse as well. Sadly no senators their as well as they are in on in.
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Replying to @puckrin
No way market can gain if this is true.
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Replying to @puckrin
We’re in for an exceptionally painful crash and subsequent deflationary period. It will be tragic, especially since it could have been avoided through fiscal responsibility.
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Replying to @puckrin
When YCC?
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Replying to @puckrin
5.8 % yields ARE the NORM, low yields were ABNORMAL
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Replying to @puckrin
fed bought 360B in us notes even more than during corona...its public info
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Replying to @puckrin
It's the new norm, because historically that's about the average price.
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Replying to @puckrin
Any comparison of any rates to the period from 2010-2020 is not worth it. That was an outlier period. Compare to 1990-2008.
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Replying to @puckrin
Bro. Stop. The market never lies. If was real issue it would be down 3-5%
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Replying to @puckrin
Re real fix. This can't be fixed with policy only affordable and abundant oil. That's not going to happen. Stagflation is actually normal albeit not desirable.
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