British Columbian, former Quebecer. I sometimes discuss politics (duh). (Real job: dismal scientist)
British Columbia, Canada
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Update: After further analysis of the counting procedure, the most likely final election results appear to be:
62 🔵 47.7%
29 🟠 37.7%
2 🟢 11.0%
0 🔴 1.6%
0 1⃣ 1.5%
NDP strongly favoured to flip Ladysmith-Oceanside, while Cowichan Valley and Kelowna Centre are near tossups.
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You know the whole mentality is broken when a self-described "frontier tech leader" thinks the way to prosperity is direct government backing.
Canada's reflex is to cut down anyone who gets big or thinks big, then wonder why our best companies leave & wonder why GDP & the economy is down.
The Cohere backlash is tall poppy syndrome in action. If we want the future built here, we have to back the ppl building it here.
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Robertson, Fry and 2 MLAs from a party that wants to repeal anti-NIMBY legislation.
I suppose it could be worse (imagine Noormohamed and Hardwick instead of Robertson and Fry), but it's not looking good for housing being more affordable in the 2030s than now.
Good to connect with Mayor-elect Pete Fry, Minister Gregor Robertson and MLA-elect Deep Sandhu.
Housing, transit, public safety and affordability don’t stop at jurisdictional lines, and neither will our willingness to work together for South Vancouver.
The people of South Vancouver expect their leaders to collaborate, and I’m looking forward to a strong partnership with the city and the federal government in the years ahead.
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Not really. CPBC likely won BC by 10 (once the margin tightens a bit at final count), 4-5 points more than the polling average.
On Tuesday:
4-5pt GOP overperformance: GOP 53, Dem 47
4-5pt Dem overperformance: Dem 56, GOP 44
Small mistakes make a big difference when it's tight.
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I gave an exam for the first time in 18 months.
The scores just came in. Yikes!
I've been refraining from weekly quizzes because university students are adults and don't need that much hand-holding, right?
But with homework less effective now, I might have to start doing them.
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My read of polls for U.S. Senate
44 Likely/Safe R (incl. not up)
1 R edge (SC)
2 pure tossups (IA, NE)
6 D edge (AK, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX)
1 Lean D (MN)
46 Likely/Safe D/I (incl. not up)
If GOP defends IA/NE/SC and Dems defend MN:
Dems need 4 "D edge" states for Senate control.
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Raise immigration and reverse zoning reforms meant to allow higher density.
Of course, that'll just screw young people even more, but boomers don't care.
Housing won’t be affordable for decades. What can we do for young Canadians while they wait? theglobeandmail.com/investin…
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I'm teaching a class for the 20th time, and all of my past exams (except for a remote semester in 2020) are posted as practice exams. So there are 18 practice midterms and 18 practice finals.
Student comment in post-midterm survey: "I wish there were more practice problems."
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Election Watcher retweeted
as an AI researcher and a Canadian, I think it's questionable that Mark Carney is "investing" 1.6B of Canadian tax payer money into Cohere
why not grow the tech/AI ecosystem? by investing in application layer, data, neolabs, or generally distributing this bet?
why not expand compute access for Canadian researchers/academic institutions?
why not invest in increasing Canadian presence of frontier labs? this will only expand jobs, education, money, and the ecosystem...
why does Canada need their own pretrain? why not just fund 10 RL/post-training neolabs for that price?
why is the Canadian public left holding the bag for Cohere
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AB referendum official results are out.
Questions 1-9 combined:
Yes 9,258,063 (49.95%)
No 9,275,041 (50.05%)
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Having to spend $1.6M per job is not the win this government seems to think it is.
We’re not waiting for the future of AI to be decided somewhere else. We’re building it here, the right way.
We’re investing up to $1.6B CAD in Cohere, a Canadian company building secure, sovereign AI.
1,000+ high-skilled jobs. $1.7B CAD in new compute in Canada.
Canadian AI. Canadian jobs. Canada strong.
🇨🇦
Nous n'attendons pas que l'avenir de l'IA se décide ailleurs. Nous le bâtissons ici, comme il se doit.
Nous investissons jusqu'à 1,6 milliard de dollars dans Cohere, une entreprise canadienne qui développe une IA sécurisée et souveraine.
Plus de 1 000 emplois techniques bien rémunérés. 1,7 milliard de dollars en nouvelles infrastructures informatiques au Canada.
IA canadienne. Emplois canadiens. Un Canada fort.
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Ugh… It’s like the best thing that Eby did.
And that stupid tax cut and increased subsidies to seniors still to come.
“We’ll fix this province, but only after making our problems worse.”
Welp it didn't take long for the first bad decision from this new government
ctvnews.ca/vancouver/video/2…
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Quebec adopting standard time and Ontario still changing its clock would be hilarious in the summer.
Samedi il s’agit fort probablement de la dernière fois qu’on recule l’heure au Québec.
Dans les dernières années, le Parti Québécois a pris position à plusieurs reprises pour remettre en question le changement d’heure. Les études démontrent que cette pratique est contre-productive pour la santé et qu’elle posait des difficultés d’adaptation aux enfants.
Notre intention est d’agir correctement et intelligemment : nous allons donc entendre tous les spécialistes pour valider ce qui semble être un consensus selon lequel cette pratique est contre-productive, mais également pour être certain de bien préparer le terrain et de bien déterminer s’il serait préférable d’opter pour l’heure d’été ou pour l’heure normale. Ces consultations débuteront dans les prochains mois, ce qui nous permettra d’entendre les experts dans une courte commission parlementaire.
Chers parents qui en ont pour plusieurs semaines à gérer la réaction de leurs enfants à ce changement d’heure, ceci est probablement la dernière année durant laquelle nous nous imposons de telles contraintes inutiles. Nous invitons la population à suivre de près nos travaux.
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BoC seems worried about another episode where a transitory shock becomes permanent, as high energy and import prices are increasingly passed on.
But with core inflation at 2% and the persistent trade conflict with the US, it's not at all obvious this is the right call.
This morning the Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 2.5%, up 0.25 points. Its first hike since 2023. It now projects inflation averaging 3% in 2027, a full point above its July forecast.
Announcement: bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-…
MPR: bankofcanada.ca/publications… #cdnecon
ALT Line chart of the Bank of Canada target for the overnight rate from 1994 to October 2026. The rate peaked above 8% in 1995, fell to 0.25% in 2009 and 2020, rose to 5% in 2023, was cut to 2.25% by late 2025, and was raised to 2.50% on October 28, 2026. A grey band marks the estimated neutral rate range of 2.25% to 3.25%, with the midpoint of 2.75% dashed.
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At least Netanyahu isn't getting a majority, but ugh...
Breaking: this is turning into a dramatic election night in Israel.
It began with all three major television networks projecting the Zionist opposition bloc ahead of Netanyahu’s bloc by three seats. Hours later, the picture has shifted dramatically. Netanyahu’s bloc has been steadily gaining ground and now leads the Zionist opposition by three seats according to channel 12. The overall size of the opposition, including the Arab parties, has not changed significantly. 70 => 68.
Likud officials are now claiming that Netanyahu has won a majority of the Jewish vote, adding that “the night is still young.”
Likud is briefing journalists that it expects Netanyahu’s bloc to finish with 55–57 seats. That would still leave him short of the 61 seats needed for a governing majority, but it would represent a significantly stronger showing than anything suggested by the pre-election polls or the initial exit polls.
The counting continues.
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The BC herding was insane. While results weren't disastrously off - polls missed the final margin by 4-5 points on average - they were so tightly bunched that no poll in the last 3 weeks was closer than 3 points off.
Within <=3 weeks of the election, it tends to be more predictable what particular pollsters will say about particular races and that's not a good thing, actually.
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0th percentile!!!
I wonder what the number for Canada is. The last two weeks' elections told us that, at least in BC, people are grumpy and throwing out incumbents left and right.
People in rich countries are unhappy. In the US they're truly miserable.
Sentiment fell more in the US since 2019 than any other country.
US sentiment at the 0th percentile of pre-COVID history, others generally around 25th percentile.
And our economy doing better than most!
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The Law Society of BC strongly supports DRIPA and is very woke in general.
Not sure if the @Conservative_BC is trying to build goodwill, or if this foreshadows them caving to the judicial establishment.
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This beats Trudeau's 2019 song, whose first verse was mistranslated to something like "Take off a high hand for any hand" in French, by a country mile.
The final campaign ad from Israel’s Yashar! party, led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, who is seeking to replace Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister.
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