"You out of your mind?!" - Dominic Cummings. Research segmentation networks values poll data. Also at: @charliemansell.bsky.social @CharlieMansell@union.place

London
BREAKING: Richard Branson of @VirginTrains reveals temporary staff member who combed CCTV for #traingate footage
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Charlie Mansell retweeted
Final CNN polls in 2024: • MICHIGAN: Kamala 48-43 • WISCONSIN: Kamala 51-45 • PENNSYLVANIA: Tied 48-48 🔗 cnn.com/2024/10/30/politics/…
CNN polls TEXAS: 🔵 Talarico 49-43 MICHIGAN: 🔵 El-Sayed 49-42 KANSAS: 🔵 Hamilton 49-45 MAINE: 🔵 Jackson 49-45 Likely voters
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Charlie Mansell retweeted
“Trump’s approval is lower than any president’s heading into a midterm since Harry Truman. It’s nearly 10 points lower than it was in 2018, when Republicans lost the popular vote by almost nine points but held the red-state Senate races. Back then, Republicans held those states by rallying Mr. Trump’s supporters. A majority of voters approved of his performance in the key red states, like Texas, Tennessee, Indiana, North Dakota and Missouri. This time, winning just the voters who approve of Mr. Trump won’t be anywhere near enough. It wouldn’t even be enough in a state like South Carolina, let alone the top-tier Senate battlegrounds. With Republican-leaning voters outright disapproving of Mr. Trump, this time they really do stay home or even cast a ballot for the other party. If that happens, Democrats could win by a larger margin than we’ve seen in recent memory.” Source: @Nate_Cohn @nytimes (nytimes.com/2026/10/29/upsho…)
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Charlie Mansell retweeted
🗺️ Explore our new interactive European party atlas with 1,544 different parties. 🇪🇺 europeelects.eu/parties/
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Charlie Mansell retweeted
CNN's new polling as Democrats leading the Senate races in Texas (+6), Michigan (+7), Kansas (+4), and Maine (+4)
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Charlie Mansell retweeted
👩‍⚕️Today we celebrate the International Day of Care and Support. Women perform more than three-quarters of all unpaid care work globally, 3.2 times as much as men. Paid care work is also predominantly done by women, and remains undervalued, with low wages and precarious working conditions. We fight for the full recognition and valuing of both paid and unpaid care work. This means closing the gender care, pay, and pension gaps and ensuring accessible, affordable care services. This is essential for our societies to function. Source: International Labour Organisation, Care Work and Care Jobs for the Future of Decent Work: ilo.org/sites/default/files/… @PES_Women
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Charlie Mansell retweeted
Tony Blair listing the differences between compassionate conservatism and normal conservatism. (December 2005)
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Charlie Mansell retweeted
New More in Common Poll Modelled Out: 🌹LAB: 304 Seats (-107) 🌳CON: 162 Seats (+41) ➡️REF: 78 Seats (+73) 🔶LDM: 70 Seats (-2) 💛SNP: 4 Seats (-5) 🌍GRN: 4 Seats (=) 🐉PC: 7 Seats (+3) ⚪️OTH: 3 Seats (-4) 🦁RES: 1 Seats (+1) 🌹Labour Largest Party (+/-) Change from 2024 Election ***Feel free to ask for any constituencies***
New More in Common Poll: 🌹LAB: 28% (=) 🌳CON: 24% (+1%) ➡️REF: 23% (+1%) 🔶LDM: 11% (+1%) 🌍GRN: 7% (-1%) 🦁RES: 5% (=) 💛SNP: 2% (-1%) 🐉PC: 1% (=) ⚪️OTH: 1% (=) (+/-) Change from last More in Common Poll
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Charlie Mansell retweeted
🇮🇱Preliminary Knesset Results - by Bloc (99.0% counted) 🔵Netanyahu Bloc: 53 🔴Opposition Bloc: 48 🟢Arab Parties: 19
🇮🇱Knesset Results (99.0% in) - Likud gain 1 seat at the expense of Shas 🔵 Likud: 27 🔴 Yashar: 21 🔴 Together: 12 🟢 Joint List: 11 🔴 Democrats: 8 🟢 Ra'am: 8 🔴 Yisrael Beteinu: 7 🔵 Otzma: 7 🔵 UTJ: 7 🔵 Shas: 6 🔵 RZP-Zehut: 6
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Charlie Mansell retweeted
Great news for London - especially for South London (the best bit of course) with the Bakerloo Line extension! 🚇
Today's budget is good news for Londoners, including: ➡️ The Bakerloo line extension & West London Orbital ➡️ Cross-channel services to Stratford International ➡️ Help with energy bills for 2.7m homes Labour in power, delivering for our capital.
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Charlie Mansell retweeted
🚨BREAKING🚨 Fox News has shifted the South Carolina U.S. Senate Election from Lean R to Toss-Up.
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The quota is lower under 6 seats so transfers matter much less. Overall the results are quite a bit more proportional and the benefit of being transfer friendly is reduced.
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I did amend our bonus candidate logic so bigger parties in each constituency will get an extra candidate (or 2) but this isn't going to be perfect. And all I got was horrible looking spreadsheet so I have no nice graphics.
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I've run the latest @Moreincommon_ poll through the system but with 6 seats per constituency*: SF 34 DUP 23 UUP 13 TUV 12 AP 12 SDLP 12 GP 1 Ind 1 Compared to 5 seats Un: +9 Nat: +8 Other: +2 *disclaimer and constituency results below
Looking at Assembly results since 1998, very few seats have changed hands directly between a Nationalist and a Unionist recently (since 2011 a UUP gain from SF in E Antrim & a SDLP gain from UUP in LV, both 2017). The 2017 seat reduction was almost entirely at unionism's expense.
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Charlie Mansell retweeted
🚨2026 Generic Ballot Poll🚨 🔵 Democrats - 52% 🔴 Republicans - 40% YouGov 499 Likely Voters 10/23-10/27
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Charlie Mansell retweeted
Crossover confirmed.
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Charlie Mansell retweeted
Very grateful to Community Notes for clearing this one up!
BREAKING NEWS: £100 payment to every household in council tax bands A-D across Wales ✅​‌ As energy bills rise, Plaid Cymru is acting to help families with the cost of living 💚
Community note
The £100 payment for Welsh households follows UK Chancellor John Healey's Budget announcement of the policy for England, with equivalent funding provided to Wales via the Barnett formula; the Plaid Cymru-led Welsh government is passing it on. gov.uk/government/new… bbc.co.uk/news/articles/… bbc.co.uk/news/articles/
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Charlie Mansell retweeted
Vučić announces an assembly of the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) within a month, at which a new leadership will be elected. Vučić himself does not hold any position in the SNS, having resigned as party president in May 2023 and been succeeded by Miloš Vučević. He has nevertheless remained the party's informal leader and has been elected as an MP in the new parliament. Pro-SNS media outlets have been describing Vučić as "the leader of the opposition" since Monday. In the past few days, he has also been posting short videos on social media, accusing the SL of carrying out "revolutionary terror". At today's press conference, Vučić once again accused members of the victorious Student List of "calling into question the very survival of the political scene" through the "terror" they are currently carrying out in Serbia.
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Charlie Mansell retweeted
GB voting intention polls with the Conservatives ahead of Reform UK, by month: July: 0 of 29 August: 1 of 29 September: 4 of 29 (1 tied) October: 8 of 21 (1 tied) Average Conservative / Reform UK share: July: 20.1% / 24.8% August: 19.9% / 24.1% September: 20.1% / 23.0% October: 21.2% / 22.4%
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Charlie Mansell retweeted
🔵 Fox News ratings change US Senate South Carolina Lean R---Toss-up
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Charlie Mansell retweeted
Slightly more here if of interest: edwardteather.substack.com/p…
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