UK voting intention polls, seat projections & calculators. Independent tracker | Westminster • Locals
London, England
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Westminster Voting Intention:
Labour: 28% (+1)
Reform UK: 23% (=)
Conservative: 20% (+2)
Greens: 9% (-2)
Liberal Democrats: 8% (-2)
Restore Britain: 7% (+2)
SNP: 3% (=)
Others: 2% (+2)
Via: BMG Research
MOE: ±2.5%
Field Work: 23-24 Sept changes w/ 25-26 August
25
81
384
36,274
Conservatives moving into a fairly comfortable second in the 7 poll seat average
Projected House of Commons seats to 25 Sep 2026
Labour 288 ▲22
Conservative 121 ▲22
Reform UK 98 ▼50
Lib Dem 71 ▲5
SNP 32 ▼1
Change vs 30 days ago
pollcheck.co.uk
1
12
59
2,268
Westminster Voting Intention:
Labour: 27% (-1)
Reform UK: 24% (+1)
Conservative: 21% (=)
Liberal Democrats: 11% (+1)
Greens: 7% (-1)
Others: 4% (=)
SNP: 3% (+1)
Plaid Cymru: 2% (=)
Restore Britain: 2% (=)
Via: @Survation
MOE: ±2.8%
Field Work: 22-23 Sept changes w/ 9-10 September
4
11
55
2,288
Council by-election result: Queen's Park, Brighton and Hove, 24 September 2026.
Green gain from Labour.
Green 50.1% (+26.1)
Labour 35.3% (-15.7)
Reform UK 7.0% (new)
Conservative 4.3% (-3.1)
Liberal Democrats 3.3% (-1.3)
Changes on 2023. No Independents and others candidate stood (13.1% in 2023).
Brighton and Hove council: Conservative 5, Labour 31, Green 12, Ind and others 6.
1
4
21
1,461
Council by-election result: New Bradwell, Milton Keynes, 24 September 2026.
Labour hold.
Labour 54.2% (+19.6)
Reform UK 23.4% (-3.0)
Green 9.3% (-12.4)
Conservative 8.5% (-2.6)
Liberal Democrats 4.6% (-1.5)
Changes on 2026.
Milton Keynes council: Conservative 12, Labour 19, Liberal Democrats 20, Reform UK 9.
2
18
78
9,306
With 3 MRPs out yesterday, how do Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet seats fare across them?
All three have Yvette Cooper losing to Reform UK
Three Shadow Cabinet members also lose to Reform: Victoria Atkins, Richard Holden and Rebecca Harris.
The Chancellor, John Healey, holds Rawmarsh and Conisbrough by two points in YouGov's model and loses it to Reform UK by under half a point in the other two.
2
4
22
6,613
Westminster Voting Intention:
Labour: 24% (-1)
Reform UK: 23% (=)
Conservative: 19% (+1)
Greens: 13% (+1)
Liberal Democrats: 12% (+1)
Others: 6% (=)
SNP: 2% (-1)
Plaid Cymru: 1% (=)
Via: Find Out Now
MOE: ±1.9%
Field Work: 23/09/2026 changes w/ 16-Sep
8
12
39
5,583
NEW: MRP from @ElectCalculus and @FindoutnowUK on behalf of @RestoreBritain
Figures without tactical voting:
Labour: 24.4% / 261 seats (−151)
Conservative: 19.7% / 145 seats (+24)
Reform UK: 21.3% / 127 seats (+122)
Lib Dem: 10.5% / 53 seats (−19)
SNP: 2.7% / 31 seats (+22)
Green: 10.5% / 7 seats (+3)
Plaid Cymru: 0.9% / 6 seats (+2)
Restore Britain: 7.1% / 1 seat (+1)
Others: 2.9% / 1 seat (−4)
Changes w/GE2024
Via: Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now MRP for Restore Britain. Fieldwork 4-11 September 2026, n=5,549.
5
9
47
6,233
With tactical voting:
Labour: 25.3% / 288 seats (−124)
Conservative: 19.6% / 165 seats (+44)
Reform UK: 21.9% / 84 seats (+79)
Lib Dem: 10.2% / 61 seats (−11)
SNP: 3.0% / 18 seats (+9)
Green: 9.1% / 7 seats (+3)
Plaid Cymru: 0.9% / 7 seats (+3)
Restore Britain: 7.1% / 1 seat (+1)
Others: 2.9% / 1 seat (−4)
Changes w/GE2024
40
36
184
32,563
New Westminster MRP:
Labour: 28.0% / 272 seats (−139)
Reform UK: 24.2% / 153 seats (+148)
Conservative: 19.7% / 85 seats (−36) L
ib Dem: 10.7% / 69 seats (−3)
SNP: 2.9% / 40 seats (+31)
Plaid Cymru: 1.0% / 8 seats (+4)
Green: 9.9% / 3 seats (−1)
Others: 3.7% / 0 seats (−5)
Changes w/GE2024
Via: @Survation MRP for 38 Degrees.
Fieldwork 20 August – 4 September 2026, n=8,124.
2
6
33
1,995
Notable seat loses:
Yvette Cooper, Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley: loses seat to Reform
Robert Jenrick, Newark: Loses to Conservatives
Danny Kruger, East Wiltshire: Loses to Conservatives
Suella Braverman, Fareham and Waterlooville: Loses to Conservatives
Sarah Pochin, Runcorn and Helsby: Loses to Labour
Although the MRP does not name individual candidates, so personal vote isn't captured
Looking at the YouGov MRP further:
North West: Labour 57 of 73 seats, Reform UK 6. Labour hold 88% of their 2024 North West seats, against 39% in the West Midlands and 6% in Wales.
Greater Manchester: Labour 24 of 27. Reform UK are second in 18, and four Labour seats are within two points of Reform UK.
London: Labour win 51 of 75 seats, down 8 from 2024. The Conservatives take six seats from Labour in central, north and west London, but lose Romford and Hornchurch and Upminster to Reform UK, finishing on 13. Reform UK win four seats in the east: Bexleyheath and Crayford, Dagenham and Rainham, Hornchurch and Upminster, and Romford.
Greens win 9 seats: the 4 they hold, plus 5 from Labour, each by five points or less.
Wales: Plaid Cymru 15, Reform UK 14, Labour 2, Conservatives 1.
Scotland: SNP 40, Labour 7, Lib Dems 5, Conservatives 3, Reform UK 2.
Changes w/September 2025
Fieldwork 23 August to 18 September 2026, n=14,000
12
8
66
22,969
Looking at the YouGov MRP further:
North West: Labour 57 of 73 seats, Reform UK 6. Labour hold 88% of their 2024 North West seats, against 39% in the West Midlands and 6% in Wales.
Greater Manchester: Labour 24 of 27. Reform UK are second in 18, and four Labour seats are within two points of Reform UK.
London: Labour win 51 of 75 seats, down 8 from 2024. The Conservatives take six seats from Labour in central, north and west London, but lose Romford and Hornchurch and Upminster to Reform UK, finishing on 13. Reform UK win four seats in the east: Bexleyheath and Crayford, Dagenham and Rainham, Hornchurch and Upminster, and Romford.
Greens win 9 seats: the 4 they hold, plus 5 from Labour, each by five points or less.
Wales: Plaid Cymru 15, Reform UK 14, Labour 2, Conservatives 1.
Scotland: SNP 40, Labour 7, Lib Dems 5, Conservatives 3, Reform UK 2.
Changes w/September 2025
Fieldwork 23 August to 18 September 2026, n=14,000
1
3
18
20,702
NEW: YouGov MRP
Labour 241 (+97)
Conservative 130 (+85)
Reform UK 123 (-188)
Lib Dem 71 (-7)
SNP 40 (+3)
Plaid Cymru 15 (+9)
Green 9 (+2)
Others 3 (=)
Changes w/ September 2025 MRP
@YouGov MRP for The Times, fieldwork 23 August to 18 September 2026, n=14,000
22
52
314
229,071
The Council Control page has had a refresh - and now every council has it's own page with ward vote data, by-election date, and councillor names
Check out the Council Control map: pollcheck.co.uk/council-cont…
Or a specific council: pollcheck.co.uk/councils/bir…
6
8
1,231
Approval Ratings (NET)
Andy Burnham: 10% (-1)
Kemi Badenoch: 1% (0)
Ed Davey: -7% (+3)
Rupert Lowe: -13% (-2)
Nigel Farage: -27% (+1)
Zack Polanski: -27% (+2)
Via: More in Common
Field Work: 18-21 Sept changes w/ 11-15 September
2
29
1,228
Modelling the latest More in Common poll:
Notable that Reform are below LD on seats here
But at current levels, even 1pp change in polling can cause large amounts of seat changes, especially between Reform/Con
42 of Reform UK's 65 seats would be won by under five points, against 58 of 171 for the Conservatives.
In the 125 seats where the two parties are first and second, 41 are separated by under five points and 18 by under two
One point from the Conservatives to Reform UK would give Reform UK 90 seats and the Conservatives 149; one point the other way would give Reform UK 45 and the Conservatives 188.
8
16
102
20,305
Westminster Voting Intention:
Labour: 26% (+1)
Conservative: 23% (+1)
Reform UK: 22% (-1)
Liberal Democrats: 11% (+1)
Greens: 8% (-1)
Restore Britain: 6% (=)
SNP: 2% (=)
Others: 1% (-1)
Via: More in Common
MOE: ±2.1%
Field Work: 18-21 Sept changes w/ 11-15 September
16
36
139
26,862
