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ACS released the 2024 5-yr microdata sets. Here is updated TFR by language spoken at home in the US, ranked from highest to lowest.
Anything with 'languages' in the name is a mess, but the trimmed average should give a rough idea of what the TFR is for smaller languages.
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The full MICS reports are out. Interestingly, the TFR among Roma is slightly higher in urban areas (3.4600) than in rural areas (3.3950). Urban Roma also have a higher TFR than several countries in SSA. Their adolescent birth rate (ages 15–19) is also higher than Afghanistan’s.
MICS TFR:
2013–14: Albanian 2.3 | Roma 3.7
2019–20: Albanian 2.3 | Roma 3.6
2025: Albanian 2.1 | Roma 3.4
Roma fertility remains substantially higher, with just a 0.3 drop over 11–12 years. Albanian TFR has also held up relatively well, all things considered.
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Here is the fertility rate of Canada's Indigenous groups from 2006 & 2021.
2021 numbers:
Inuit: 2.57
Status Indian: 1.82
Métis: 1.23
Non-status Indian: 1.13
Don’t First Nations and Inuit also have large families too with Nunavut consistently reporting the highest fertility rates in Canada? What about the Metis communities (half-European, half-Amerindian)?
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Iraq reported 1,026,242 births in 2025, around 1.3% more than in 2024. The TFR declined slightly to 2.74 (2.77 in 2024). The TFR tends to be higher in the south and lower in Baghdad and the central regions (no data for the Kurdish provinces).
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Fertility Rate map of Argentina by Province in 2025. Overall, the TFR was 1.04, ranging from a low of 0.74 in Jujuy to a high of 1.42 in Misiones. The TFR of the City of Buenos Aires was 0.79. No region had a TFR above replacement.
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Mexico's just-published Encuesta Intercensal (EIC) 2025 contains some interesting baseline data on aging and ethnicity. From 2020 to 2025, the median age of Mexicans rose from 29 to 32, with a rapid contraction of the under-10 population over those five years.
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Here's what fertility looks like around North America.
The list of regions with near-or-above replacement-rate fertility is:
Nunavut
Haiti
South Dakota
That's pretty much it.
A few hours ago, INEGI, the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography, a government agency, published its Encuesta Intercensal (EIC) 2025 (intercensal survey 2025).
Here is the press release:
inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprens…
Page 9 reports the total fertility rate (TFR). INEGI estimates Mexico’s TFR for 2024 at 1.2 (screenshot in Spanish below). Yes, 1.2, only slightly above Japan’s level in the same year (1.15). By 2026, Mexico’s TFR could fall below Japan’s.
I don’t find words to describe this.
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Mexican fertility in free fall!!!
According to the 2025 intercensal survey, Mexico had 130,393,389 inhabitants, 3.5% more than in 2020.
The survey found a TFR of 1.23 children per woman for 2024, down from 1.60 in the 2020-22 period.
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Québec 2025 Update: TFR, births, Fertility hotspots, Great Replacement? and more 🧵
Births(p): 78,200 (+1.0% YoY)
Deaths: 80,450 (+2.1% YoY)
Marriages: 22,711 (-1.5% YoY)
TFR 1.360
Par région administrative:
Bas-Saint-Laurent 1.394
Saguenay‒Lac-Saint-Jean 1.436
Capitale-Nationale 1.374
Mauricie 1.417
Estrie 1.429
Montréal 1.142
Outaouais 1.453
Abitibi-Témiscamingue 1.636
Côte-Nord 1.541
Nord-du-Québec 2.241
Gaspésie‒Îles-de-la-Madeleine 1.415
Chaudière-Appalaches 1.669
Laval 1.410
Lanaudière 1.453
Laurentides 1.476
Montérégie 1.471
Centre-du-Québec 1.705
I will be giving much more interesting data in this thread 🧵
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+ @smy1924 's population pyramid for German speakers in Bolivia, for comparison.
Note that some children in the youngest cohorts are not reported as speaking any language, which explains the narrow base.
Aymaras and Quechuas have seen an big drop in births in recent years, but I also think a lot of their children are not identifying with those ethnicities anymore; it talks more abt a cultural change
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from this 2024 census-based TFR map:
largest cities:
Santa Cruz - 1.5
El Alto - 1.5
La Paz - 1.3
Cochabamba - 1.3
Oruro - 1.6
Sucre - 1.4
Tarija - 1.3
Potosi - 1.8
lowest: Tito Yupanqui (0.9), in the Western Altiplano near Titicaca
highest: Pailón (3.2)
Pailón is likely the most mennonite municipality, with roughly around 40% of the pop. Other mennonite heavy municipalities in the east are around 2.6-3.2. Rural Aymara, Quechua, Guarani, etc speaking municipalities remain high.
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Bolivia municipality-level TFR map.
centro-de-estudios-populi.gi…
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I buried the lede. The white non-Hispanic TFR has passed the overall US TFR, for the first time in recorded history
12-months ending 2026 Q2:
White 1.58
All races 1.56
Hispanic 1.74
Black 1.45
ALT US total fertility rate by race with overall rate, 12-month ending quarterly, 2023 Q1 to 2026 Q2. NCHS Vital Statistics Rapid Release, Sep 17, 2026. @smirkley
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US TFR by race, 12 months ending Q2 2026:
Hispanic 1.74
White 1.58
Black 1.45
Note: Q2 uses the new Vintage 2025 pop base.
ALT US total fertility rate by race, 12-month ending quarterly, 2022 Q1 to 2026 Q2. NCHS Vital Statistics Rapid Release, Sep 17, 2026. @smirkley
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Austria reported a TFR of 1.30 in 2025 (1.31 in 2024), the lowest value ever recorded. Here are the TFRs by national origin (2024 in brackets):
Austrian origin 1.18 (1.21)
Foreign origin 1.55 (1.55), thereof
EU/EFTA/UK 1.32 (1.31)
Former Yugoslavia 1.87 (1.89)
Turkey 1.53 (1.64)
Elsewhere 1.81 (1.77)
Vienna 1.21 (1.22)
Austrian origin 0.98 (1.01)
Foreign origin 1.45 (1.45)
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MICS TFR:
2013–14: Albanian 2.3 | Roma 3.7
2019–20: Albanian 2.3 | Roma 3.6
2025: Albanian 2.1 | Roma 3.4
Roma fertility remains substantially higher, with just a 0.3 drop over 11–12 years. Albanian TFR has also held up relatively well, all things considered.
The newest Kosovo MICS survey found a TFR of 2.1 for the 2023-25 period. While ethnic Albanians had a TFR of 2.1, the TFR in Roma, Ashkali and Egyptian communities was 3.4. Unfortunately, the sample size was too small to calculate the TFR for ethnic Serbs.
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