Realizing more how the Bitcoin/crypto market is about liquidity. MMs will drive price to the max area of pain for lev. retail apes. People like Trabucco will keep drinking your milkshake.
If weโre gonna go higher, need to create a period of disbelief/uncertainty at a minimum.
For what itโs worth, my base case is that we consolidate/range till EOY, carve out a regime of mixed-negative funding rates/premium, before bullish Q1.
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Part of the reason why the ETH/BTC chart did so well today is because the high gas fees prevented selling. Today high gas fees were a feature, not a bug!
As Bitcoin is institutionalized we have to think in their shoes.
If funds have been hesitant to take on risk EOY because theyโre sitting on large uPnLs for 2021, shall we expect them to be willing to take on risk (Bitcoin is viewed as risk-on whether you agree or not) in Q1?