Worst start to the year for #NASDAQ ever!! No chance #Fed raises FF to 3.25% by Dec23 (as priced by mkt now). Too much damage too quickly combines with record bond mkt collapse. Another -10% on equity, and we'll see real breakage/Fed reversal. "Inflation" has already peaked.

Apr 30, 2022 · 10:12 PM UTC

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Replying to @DTAPCAP
Inflation has peaked?? We havent even seen the effect of China's current lockdown yet... Congress is waaaay more concerned about inflation than bond prices, and the Fed will have to contend with them if they abandon their mandate
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We will see effect of lockdown soon enough.
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Replying to @DTAPCAP
it's not the Fed's job to pump stocks. i think people have forgotten that... they only pumped stocks because they wanted to create inflation, now it has gotten out of control... they want asset prices lower
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Democrats will care at some point soon. Otherwise will cement their burial in mid-terms only 6 months away.
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Replying to @DTAPCAP
I think inflation will stay. What if China's intention is to break the global supply chain knowing what insues after Russia. Communists care less about its own people, and will not care about the global economy.
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China vapor lock in play now. More to come.
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Replying to @DTAPCAP
YTD fails to take into account how insane 2020 and 2021 were for Nasdaq... It's down 20% but still WAY above pre-COVID.
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As someone mentioned, maybe just need to see this back down another 20 pts. Jamie puts his foot down at 100.
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Replying to @DTAPCAP
But why 10%? sounds arbitrary. Could take another 20 or 30% drop for the fed to capitulate considering the circumstances.
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Yes. Arbitrary...just a rough estimate where panic in DC sets in.
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Replying to @DTAPCAP
Out of interest which resources do you use to get the 3.25% figure? Is this just Fed projections?
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FFz3 futures ticker.
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Replying to @DTAPCAP
I mean…nasdaq is up what, 130% in the last 5 years? How about 10 years?
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Ya. I know. People forget.
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Replying to @DTAPCAP
Totally agree
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Replying to @DTAPCAP
1/...at the end of 2021 the market capitalization of the NASDAQ represented 60% of the value of all US stocks ($32T/$54T) ... in 2001 the ratio was 20% ($3T/$14T)... moreover, NASDAQ stocks have never had any real "earnings".. ...this $29T increase in value seems relevant to me
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Replying to @DTAPCAP @JohnEDeaton1
Ah yes. Perfect for my crypto buys. Please drop more. Just a bit more 😈
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Replying to @DTAPCAP
@chamath said a 3600-3800 sp500. I wonder how close he’ll be.
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Replying to @DTAPCAP
December of 23??? 3% already priced for this xmas.
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Replying to @DTAPCAP
Bingo. Fed was looking for plausible deniability on this one: didn’t want to raise going into midterms and get blamed for Dems loss. So they dot-plotted aggressively and talked the market into tightening. See ma, no hands.
Replying to @DTAPCAP
At this point we are in a place that is worse than the Great depression
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Replying to @DTAPCAP
I would have more respect for you & others of this opinion if you just admitted the stuff you are invested in or peddle requires a lot of free and easy money to survive...... just admit it and we can get to the heart of the matter
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Replying to @DTAPCAP
We need a BAD Recession to dampen inflation. Fed needs to let ultimate pain happen to taper demand. Deny it all you want that's what needs to be done. They can do it and should! I hope they do.
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Replying to @DTAPCAP
5% mortgages already impacting housing sales.
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Replying to @DTAPCAP
Unfortunately we need this market crash and economic depression, we need housing and energy prices to correct and get back to a form of normalcy, I stand to lose a lot but it’s what must happen to avoid a long stagnant economy. Fed not rising rates will only cause long term pain
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Replying to @DTAPCAP
Not quite, 10% would not be enough. They will pause, then pivot. Either way, Fed is irrelevant at this point. .50 rates and massive balance sheet. They couldn’t stop 2008, 2000, Europe 2015, Japan last 30 years. The fed are borderline irrelevant
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Replying to @DTAPCAP
My base case isn’t that inflation has peaked My base case is that there’ll be pockets of rolling inflation (like rolling blackouts) in different industries, commodities, components & regions The FED is poorly equipped to quantify or identify rolling inflation Deer+Headlights
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Replying to @DTAPCAP
Do you really think FED puts stock holders over the lower class masses? If inflation continues chances for civil unrest could rise. If average Joe and Jane can't pay the regular bills, it will become dangerous, don't you think?
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Replying to @DTAPCAP
You are wrong. FED gotta do what they gotta do.... it will crush risky portfolios and that's okay to tame inflation (which has NOT peaked)
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Replying to @DTAPCAP
Yet FED does not even seem alarmed by this. They really intended to destroy the market.
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