Iran is exploiting Trump’s insanity to appear rational and pragmatic to the world and it is working.
IRAN WAR ANALYSIS: Over the last 24 hours, we have seen a chess move from Iran that is very notable, and worth highlighting in terms of what some of Iran’s key underlying goals are as the Iran War likely continues well into 2027.
You may have noticed that after the markets closed yesterday, there were MULTIPLE stories immediately released that showed that Trump:
- Decline the Iranian “peace deal”
- Will keep the blockade of Iran
- Will likely return to war post-midterm
You ALSO may have noticed the flurry of headlines that the United States and Iran met for multiple hours (indirectly) at the UN General Assembly this past week.
One of the KEY goals for Iran during the War is to keep global opinion on the side of Iran. Many people, especially those in the United States and the West, viewed Iran through the lens of propaganda and misinformation.
“These crazy jihadis want to nuke the entire world and cause Armageddon!”
… That’s just not REMOTELY compatible with their behavior during this war. You don’t need to “like” the Iranian government, I certainly don’t, but a rational person viewing this conflict objectively can see that, largely speaking, the Iranians have behaved in a very rational, strategic, and pragmatic manner.
And the world has NOTICED.
This is a key reason to why the “peace deal” offer being made from Iran was so significant.
It was never a “real” offer. It was the same exact offer that has been put forth by Iran a million times now, and has resulted in zero forward progress:
U.S. lifting of blockade
UP FRONT release of Iranian frozen assets
Ending of the war “on all fronts”
This has always been a nonstarter for Trump. Particularly the up front release of frozen assets.
But by publicly making this offer… by publicly giving Trump this “off ramp” in the lead up to the midterms, they paint TRUMP as the barrier to peace.
“Iran was willing to end this war. We TRIED everything we could”.
That is the messaging Iran can return home with to sell to their citizens. We tried, we were reasonable. It was the United States that refused to let you return to normal life.
By making this offer publicly, they can further the narrative both domestically inside of Iran, as well as around the world that IRAN is the rational actor, and TRUMP is the reason why the war must continue.
You make not like it… But that’s a savvy move.