This is why I believe the
#Commanders should prioritize an offensive head coach in the next hiring cycle
We've talked enough about the offensive line and skill positions... but I'm worried that the inability to stick to an offensive vision is stunting Jayden Daniels' growth
Caleb Williams struggled enormously with adapting to Ben Johnson's offense. But Ben is a terrific head coach, and Caleb has developed into a top MVP candidate
One of the main reasons the Commanders moved on from Kliff Kingsbury was to incorporate more under-center offense, with the belief that would further develop Jayden as a quarterback
How's that worked out?
The Commanders were in shotgun on 74.4% (2nd) of plays with Kliff. That usage has dropped, although it's still close at 66.1% (6th) with Blough, and many of the team's best moments have come when they abandoned their under-center offense
The team was only under center 10.9% (32nd) of the time with Kliff — they're up to 27% with Blough, although that's still only 30th in the league
But this is where the problem truly lies...
When under center, the Commanders are DEAD LAST in EPA per play. They lose 0.3 points relative to the expectation every time they get under center
And to make matters worse, their under-center EPA/pass falls to -0.54 (31st). So these numbers aren't skewed by their general inability to run the ball — they're actually helped by their rushing numbers.
The key difference is that without Kliff, the Commanders' shotgun EPA/play is +0.01 (15th), nine spots below their +0.07 (4th) mark with Kliff
In other words, the "development" piece isn't occurring, given the offense's general inefficiency under center, and the shotgun reps aren't as effective as they were
As always, there's plenty to talk about. O-line, receiver, coordinator, injuries, etc... but a great play-calling head coach presents a consistent vision that is established and expanded over multiple years
Jayden was in a scheme that was initially effective but wasn't great for QB development. But now that he's changed offenses, the returns haven't been what they were expected to be. In fact, the team probably never would've changed offenses if they knew this was what was in store
An offensive head coach — if they are the right guy — doesn't let that happen and maximizes an MVP talent like the one that plays in Landover
#RaiseHail