𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗜𝗘𝗔 𝗝𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗧𝗼𝗹𝗱 𝗬𝗼𝘂 𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗕𝗮𝗱 𝗜𝘁 𝗜𝘀, 𝗪𝗶𝘁𝗵𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗦𝗮𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮 𝗪𝗼𝗿𝗱
In case anyone still doubts how dire this is, weigh what the
@IEA is doing, not what the screen price says.
Earlier today, the G7 agreed to release up to 100 million barrels of diesel and other reserves to fight soaring fuel prices.
That lands on top of 2026 March, when the IEA carried out the LARGEST stock release in its history, 400 million barrels, after the Strait of Hormuz "self-inflicted shock".
So I had to look at history to understand where we are and how we compare to our past:
The agency has reached for emergency stocks only a handful of times in 50 years.
1. During the 1991 Gulf War, it released roughly 17 to 30 million barrels.
2. During Hurricane Katrina it released 60 million in 2005.
3. 60 million for Libya in 2011.
4. Around 183 million across 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine.
This year alone it has pledged more than those four crises COMBINED, and then came back for 100 million more...
That is the SIGNAL. The IEA pulls opens the pipes only when the fundamentals are actually breaking (or broken), and it has now opened it harder than at ANY point in its existence, twice in only 7 months.
But that is not even the worst part of the release and the crisis: the 100 million barrels is over four months and you get about 800,000 barrels a day (roughly).
The world burns 25 to 28 million barrels a day of diesel and gasoil. Even if EVERY drop released were diesel, it covers only a few percent of demand.
It buys weeks, perhaps a couple of months. It does NOT rebuild a single refinery, and it does not reopen a single closed sea lane.
The honest way to take this is the opposite of how it is sold.
A release this size is a CONFESSION, not reassurance. The people with the clearest view of the supply chain are emptying the emergency tank at record speed, and even that only buys time.
More to releases to come... the crisis is getting wider, deeper and longer.
𝗦𝗜𝗚𝗡𝗔𝗟, 𝗡𝗢𝗧 𝗡𝗢𝗜𝗦𝗘!!