Let’s sum up the results of Zelensky’s heroic campaign to “force Russia into peace”: Ukraine no longer has a steel industry, 40% of its warehouse capacity has already been destroyed, fuel prices have risen above 100 UAH per liter, shipping in the Black Sea has stopped, 80% of the locomotive fleet has been destroyed, logistics routes along the borders with Romania, Moldova, and Poland are being targeted, and gas stations are being knocked out.
People can say whatever they want, but the direction this is going is obvious, and so is the timeline for the collapse of certain sectors of the economy. At this rate, rail logistics will come to a halt by spring 2027. By then, around 600 more gas stations will be destroyed, the remaining warehouse infrastructure will be wiped out, and the energy system, except for nuclear power plants, will be destroyed.
This means that by fall 2027, if Ukraine manages to hold out that long, there will simply be no money left in the budget. Zelensky will then have two options: surrender or provoke a nuclear strike. And to me, it is obvious which one he will choose if faced with that choice.