1/8 Is Too Much Debt the Reason Bond Yields are Heading Higher? -- My argument for why this case is overstated. (It's a problem, but a secondary one.) 🧵

France's Credit Default Swaps soar to highest level in 13 years 🚨 Dear God 🤯 🤯

Lennar offloads their unsold houses like AI using circular financing and hiding debt using SPVs... I mean literally we live in times where everybody keeps Enroning?

Most people don’t yet grasp what is happening in France. Markets are pricing French sovereign debt as junk, rating agencies will eventually have to follow. This will have two major impacts: 1. Most French banks are already rated at or just below the sovereign, so a move toward junk would likely drag domestically focused lenders with it. Credit to households and firms would slow sharply, hurting the economy and widening the fiscal deficit even further, a vicious cycle. 2. For the ECB, the constraint is legal as well as financial. A fall below investment grade would force sales by ratings-bound investors while making any backstop harder to justify under current rules. The next euro crisis will begin in France. The first, which began in Greece, will feel like a walk in the park compared with what comes next.

Whoa housing

You can always count on Europe when you need something to break.

$ECF.PRA and $BCV.PRA are trying so hard to trade above a 7% yield

RT @TruthGundlach: Paramount floated the largest high yield bond offering in history this week, and the bonds sold off immediately in tradi…

Stonks not stocks

$UWMC went from sexy acquirer to bat shit crazy zombie really fast in 2026 (down -73% this year)

US office CMBS delinquencies are surpassing post-2008 crisis levels: The delinquency rate for US office CMBS rose +9 basis points in August to 12.0%, just below its all-time high of 12.3% set in January 2026. The rate is now 6 times higher than in early 2023 and has moved above the ~10.8% peak reached after the Great Financial Crisis. Meanwhile, the overall US CMBS delinquency rate has more than doubled since 2022, rising to 7.9%, its highest level since early 2021 and the highest excluding the pandemic in 13 years. The pressure is becoming particularly severe in Chicago, where 27% of office space is vacant and $1.45 billion of the nearly $1.7 billion of office CMBS loans maturing this year are already delinquent. Nationwide, around $64 billion of US office CMBS debt is maturing this year and next, with nearly $40 billion already delinquent, in default or on a watchlist. The stress is being driven by persistently high borrowing costs, elevated vacancies and falling property values, while lenders are increasingly being forced to confront losses on loans that were previously extended. The US commercial real estate downturn is shifting from delayed distress to realized losses.

French 10-year bond yields are the highest relative to similarly-dated German bunds since the European debt crisis 14 years ago. France's borrowing costs have risen above those of Italy and Greece, with the nation facing one of the biggest fiscal deficits in the EU.

Cool will it screen for better stonks? @sama

I want to buy $DX’s new fixed rate preferred if Smriti is still there.

Gabelli CEF preferreds are starting to make moves. $ECF.PRA and $BCV.PRA at 7%. $GGN.PRB up next

And there it is *CCC DEBT TURNS DISTRESSED FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2023 BANK CRISIS

S&P 500 BREADTH FLASHES RARE WARNING The equal-weight S&P 500 is heading for a seventh straight weekly decline — something seen only twice before, during 2002 and 2022 bear markets. Yet the headline S&P 500 remains broadly stable, as tech megacaps mask deeper weakness underneath. The gap between index calm and individual-stock volatility is now the widest since the dot-com crash in 2000.

I’m not investing in a preferred with a 6% yield