If this basic math is still too complicated for some of you Mitch McConnell Republicans, let me simplify it: STOP IMPORTING MASS GROUPS OF DEMOCRATIC VOTERS. It's a bad idea for our party, and therefore for our country. It's still a bad idea even when we Republicans occasionally narrow the share going to Democrats.
Political discourse within our party would sure improve if you guys were half as smart as you think you are.
"Tacit suggestion that AZ got bluer due to Latinos is stupid, given Latino shift to GOP (till now)."
It's only stupid if you don't understand basic arithmetic or overestimate the shift toward the GOP by Hispanic voters.
When McCain entered Congress in 1983, the Hispanic vote in Arizona was small - less than 10% of the total electorate and perhaps closer to 5%. It was just 2% of the national electorate. While no one has any breakdown of how Arizona Hispanics voted in that period, we do know that, nationally, Hispanic voters went ~55% for Jimmy Carter in 1980 and ~65% for Walter Mondale in 1984.
And peaks in a variation are not a shift. Reagan won 37% of the Hispanic vote in 1980; Bush won 44% in 2004; Trump won 46% in 2024. (Carter 56%; Kerry 53%; Harris 51%.) So the small overall growth in the percentage of the Hispanic vote by GOP presidential candidates over the past forty years has been destroyed by the rapid growth in that Democratic group. The faster Republicans run with Hispanics, the further they fall behind because the group has ballooned in size
To put another way, we shouldn't really care much about demographic breakdowns in partisan vote trends when the group in question represents 2% of the total electorate - as Hispanics did in 1980 - but we are forced to care when they reach double digits, as Hispanics first did in 2012.
Consider it numerically. In 1980, Hispanics were 2% of voters and split roughly 37/56 for Reagan/Carter - a Democratic advantage of about 19 point. That's a net DEMOCRATIC contribution to the popular vote of 0.38 points.
In 2024, Hispanics were 11% of voters splitting 46/51 for Trump/Harris - a Democratic advantage of only 5 points, but among a much larger group representing 11% of the electorate. That's a net DEMOCRATIC contribution of about 0.55 points. So even though the margin narrowed sharply (19 points down to 5), the share of the total popular vote that margin represents moved even further in the Democrats' direction.
Get it now?
In other words, Trump fell slightly further behind in the popular vote in 2024 due to Hispanics, despite losing that Democratic group by just five points to Harris, than Reagan did in 1980, despite losing it by 19 points to Carter.
It will sure be a nice day for our party when you Mitch McConnell Republicans learn how to do some basic arithmetic.
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Besides, why give McCain credit for the shift in the Hispanic vote toward Trump in 2024? The former Arizona senator had been dead for six years by the time of that election and he certainly would not have endorsed Trump had he been alive, nor would he have predicted the shift.