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Big update for @ElectIndex
Hello everyone, I’m moving the @ElectIndex Election Simulator behind a paywall as I continue expanding it into a much more advanced election modeling and simulation platform. The simulator is getting major new features, including precinct-level simulations, custom race creation, more control over how elections are modeled, and much more. But this is only the beginning. The current simulator is honestly about 1% of what I ultimately want it to become. I have plans to expand it far beyond its current capabilities, including international elections, more detailed geographic simulations, significantly more customization, advanced modeling features, and many other tools that I want to build over time. ElectIndex is run entirely by one person, and building all of this takes a huge amount of time, development, and resources. If I’m going to continue putting that much work into the simulator and turn it into the platform I envision, the bottom line is that I need to be paid for that work. Moving the full simulator behind the paywall is what makes it possible for me to dedicate more time and resources toward developing it. That said, I don’t want to completely lock everyone out. Until the conclusion of the midterms, the 2026 Election Simulator will remain completely free as a demo, so anyone can still try it out and get a sense of what the simulator can do. After the midterms, another date will be available as a demo. I’m also moving state legislative chamber-level forecasts behind the paywall as part of this expansion. This will allow me to dedicate more resources toward producing and maintaining detailed state legislative forecasts. If you want access to the full simulator, state legislative forecasts, and other ElectIndex Supporter features such as Forecast+, you can become an ElectIndex Supporter here: electindex.com/join You can access the Election Simulator here: electindex.com/simulator Thank you to everyone who supports ElectIndex and helps make it possible for me to continue expanding my business and living out my dreams ❤️
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Here's what Trump's approval looks like on the county level (Green: Approve, Purple: Disapprove) If this was an election, it would be a D+20 LANDSLIDE. Trump is HATED
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The @ElectIndex PREDICTION MAP MAKER is now live Predict control of all 535 races in Congress using either ratings or margin, and get scored after the election results are in. ElectIndex account is required to save your predictions publicly, but the prediction map maker is free
Someone needs to make a website or app where we can predict the winners and get a scorecard at the end of the year based on how well we did.
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RATINGS CHANGE U.S. House: Lean D -> Likely D As generic ballot polls continue to improve for the Democrats, with a Marquette poll showing them up 13, the overall US House rating has shifted from Lean D to Likely D. RT and FOLLOW to stay updated!!!
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RATINGS CHANGES: @DecisionDeskHQ Mississippi: Safe R -> Likely R @VoteHub Alaska: Tossup -> Tilt D Michigan: Tilt D -> Lean D Ohio: Tossup -> Tilt D @TheArgumentMag Kansas: Safe R -> Likely R New Hampshire: Safe D -> Likely D Texas: Tossup -> Lean D @LoganR2WH Florida: Likely R -> Tilt R Louisiana: Likely R -> Safe R Michigan: Tossup -> Lean D Minnesota: Safe D -> Likely D New Hampshire: Likely D -> Lean D Ohio: Tilt D -> Lean D South Carolina: Likely R -> Tilt R South Dakota: Safe R -> Likely R @TheEconomist Florida: Lean R -> Likely R Georgia: Lean D -> Likely D New Hampshire: Likely D -> Lean D New Mexico: Likely D -> Safe D Ohio: Tossup -> Lean D South Carolina: Lean R -> Likely R South Dakota: Safe R -> Likely R @50plus1news Louisiana: Safe R -> Likely R Minnesota: Safe D -> Likely D Ohio: Tossup -> Lean D @ElectIndex Iowa: Lean R -> Tossup @CookPolitical Iowa: Lean R -> Tossup Texas: Lean R -> Tossup @Center4Politics Florida: Likely R -> Safe R Texas: Lean R -> Tossup
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Here's what Trump's approval rating looks like mapped out using density (Purple: disapprove, Green: approve) Polls are showing a D+10 BLUE WAVE year: if we get it, this is why
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🚨 After one of the BEST days for the Dems for polling in a long time, they're now the narrowest of narrow FAVORITES to FLIP THE SENATE according to my neutral forecast The Dems have a 50.1% chance of FLIPPING the Senate vs. the GOP's 49.9% chance. Follow & RT to stay updated!!!
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Here's what the updated RACE FOR THE HOUSE looks like The Democrats are favored in 231 seats to the GOP's 204: FOLLOW and RT to stay updated!!!
🚨 After one of the BEST days for the Dems for polling in a long time, they're now the narrowest of narrow FAVORITES to FLIP THE SENATE according to my neutral forecast The Dems have a 50.1% chance of FLIPPING the Senate vs. the GOP's 49.9% chance. Follow & RT to stay updated!!!
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Here's what Trump's approval rating in Pennsylvania looks like mapped out by density. He's 18 POINTS UNDERWATER John Fetterman has the political instincts of a toddler
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Here's what the map of the U.S's ancestry groups looks like mapped out by census tract Is there anything you see here that's interesting?
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Labor Day is HERE... and with the long weekend, it's also the start of ELECTION SEASON!!! I'm happy to announce that this year, I'm going to be posting THE BEST UNBIASED early voting and poll analysis EVERY DAY until the midterm elections powered by my site at @ElectIndex 🧵
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🚨 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT SIMULATOR LAUNCH 🚨 I've added the European Parliament as well as all non-covered EU countries to my Global Election Simulator. Enjoy!!!
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🚨 LABOR DAY PREDICTIONS 🚨 Labor Day is the TRUE START of election season: and today, I'm predicting the Democrats are on track to win 230 House seats and have a 50-50 shot of FLIPPING the Senate Follow and RT to STAY UPDATED with the best forecasts and data!!!
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Check it out ☺️
🚨 I'm proud to announce the @ElectIndex 2026 EARLY VOTE TRACKER - See every ballot in 35 states as they come in, in real time across the election cycle - Track ballots by party registration and other demographics - And see how a state's electorate would've voted in 2024!!!
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Also worth noting that some of the data for this tracker was sourced from @civicapi, consider dropping them a follow for some of the BEST elections data!!!
🚨 I'm proud to announce the @ElectIndex 2026 EARLY VOTE TRACKER - See every ballot in 35 states as they come in, in real time across the election cycle - Track ballots by party registration and other demographics - And see how a state's electorate would've voted in 2024!!!
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🚨 I'm proud to announce the @ElectIndex 2026 EARLY VOTE TRACKER - See every ballot in 35 states as they come in, in real time across the election cycle - Track ballots by party registration and other demographics - And see how a state's electorate would've voted in 2024!!!
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ElectIndex retweeted
Here's what Trump's approval rating looks like mapped out using density (Purple: disapprove, Green: approve) Trump is SO DESPISED that you can even see it in most RURAL AREAS
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🚨 UPDATED MIDTERM FORECAST With roughly 2 months to go until the midterm elections, my highly accurate forecast predicts that the DEMOCRATS are large favorites to retake the House and have a 50-50 chance of retaking the Senate
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🤯🤯🤯
Here's what Trump's approval looks like mapped out using DENSITY One of the most unpopular politicians of our LIFETIMES
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Here's what Trump's approval looks like mapped out using DENSITY One of the most unpopular politicians of our LIFETIMES
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🚨 POLL FUNDRAISER 🚨 Wedgewood Polls, in collaboration with @ElectIndex is launching a fundraiser to poll both the Nebraska Senate and Governor’s races! Despite Nebraska’s growing importance in 2026, no major pollster has publicly polled either race this cycle. We want to change that. Our goal is to raise enough to conduct a high quality statewide poll covering both contests and give voters a much needed look at where these races stand.
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