Election Simulator Update🚀 National Election Night view (beta) is now live, and it includes: ⭐ 2026 National U.S. Senate map ⭐ 2026 National Governors map ⭐ 2028 U.S Presidential Election Play now → electionenjoyer.com

Trump's approval is the lowest recorded in our polling average since we began tracking, currently 23 points underwater.

Election Simulator Australia is now live! 🇦🇺 electionenjoyer.com/australi…

Head of data science at @VoteHub @ZacharyDonnini says "Democrats yesterday hit all-time highs in our forecast to control the Senate and the House." "Polling looks good for Democrats, but it's different on a state-by-state level, which is normal in midterm elections," he says. "The Rio Grande Valley turned purple in 2024. Trump made big gains; now it's blue. Another key Senate race is Ohio...We have multiple areas of the state, including the affluent Columbus suburbs and the more working-class Youngstown area, that have been red in the past."

You can now play with assembly seats in Election Simulator France 🇫🇷 electionenjoyer.com/france

Which country should come next in the election simulator?

This is, without a doubt, the best poll for Collins this cycle. She not only leads Jackson, but builds a 3-point edge while nearing 50%. The total domination of the airwaves by Collins seems to have paid off, with her outrunning the state’s D+8 generic ballot by 11.

🚨 LAUNCH — VoteHub’s 2026 Early Vote Tracker is LIVE. Track ballot returns and, for the first time, see who we think is actually AHEAD right now, plus what the trailing candidate needs on Election Day to catch up. Rolling out for every battleground Senate and governor race.

Trump now has the lowest net approval of any president at this point or earlier in their presidency since polling began in 1945. It's now more than 10 points worse than both his own first term and Biden's at the same point.

NEWS — The Trump administration is preparing plans to ban U.S. diesel exports for 90 days in an effort to bring down fuel prices ahead of the midterms, per @POLITICO. Trump announced yesterday that he supports a diesel export ban.

Simulate the Texas Governor Election in Election Simulator. What do you think the final result will end up looking like? electionenjoyer.com/texas/go…

to be clear, I am concerned about polls being loaded up for Ds (and I note some of those concerns on a couple of newsy polls in my piece today that otherwise moves a lot of races toward Ds). But we also have to be open to the possibility that this is 2018 on steroids.

At -39, Trump’s numbers here mirror Bush’s approval at the height of the financial crisis.

– Cool news to share! – We're teaming up with @VoteHub here at the @cbsnews Data Desk - for the '26 elex ...Teaming up for analytics, forecasts & all the great work they do - watch this space... Release link here: bit.ly/4heS0rJ

RATING CHANGE — VoteHub's forecast moves the Texas governor’s race to Lean Republican. We currently give Greg Abbott a 78% chance of winning: fundamentals remain favorable to him, but his polling-average lead is a relatively modest 3.3 points, narrower than Talarico's margin.

📣 BIG NEWS — VoteHub is officially teaming up with CBS News for 2026 midterms coverage. Through our partnership with the @CBSNews Data Desk, our election data, analysis, and maps will be incorporated across CBS’s platforms, including on election night this November.

We’ve modeled 241,000 Ohio absentee requests tracked by @L2political. If all were returned, we estimate they’d give Brown a 56,000-vote firewall. But the Election Day electorate will be more red, and this pool is far too preliminary to draw conclusions about the final result.

One of the biggest questions this cycle was what would happen after Labor Day, as pollsters shifted toward surveying likely voters. So far, the answer has been clear: our projected national environment has moved sharply in Democrats’ favor.