This is, without a doubt, the best poll for Collins this cycle. She not only leads Jackson, but builds a 3-point edge while nearing 50%. The total domination of the airwaves by Collins seems to have paid off, with her outrunning the state’s D+8 generic ballot by 11.
Susan Collins pulls ahead for the first time in a NY Times/ Sienna poll: 🔴 Collins: 49 🔵 Jackson: 46 Here are some of those Collins voting Dems:

Last edited Sep 24, 2026 · 1:25 PM UTC

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Replying to @ElliscbIV
The recent changes to NYT's polling methods and their problems are very evident in this polling. Maine is especially vulnerable to big polling errors from them.
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Replying to @ElliscbIV
A D+8 gcb in Maine seems unbelievably red. It's definitely possible but it would be an outlier among most states
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Replying to @ElliscbIV
It'll be interesting to see how the corruption scandal impacts her, because it is very real and on the front page of every paper in Maine.
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Replying to @ElliscbIV
Collins has a 3% favorable here. In what world is that true? She’s been 15-20% unfavorable in other polls. Also the generic ballot in this poll is equal to what Harris won by. With Canada tariffs and gas prices, Maine is still as bullish on R as two years ago? That’s what you’re telling me?
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Replying to @ElliscbIV
Umass poll just came out and has Jackson up
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Replying to @ElliscbIV
A D+8 Maine means the wave almost completely passes the state. In an environment where the country is shifting almost 10-14 pts left I doubt it
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What are your thoughts on the other three poles release today that show her losing?
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Replying to @ElliscbIV
And not even 5 hours later a poll comes out with Jackson up +5. A poll that meets NYT’s criteria uml.edu/news/press-releases/…
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Replying to @ElliscbIV
This was conducted before the ProPublica story dropped.
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Replying to @ElliscbIV
A plus 3 favorable for collins? Yeah its an outlier. Im confident shes aint that in Maine
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Replying to @ElliscbIV
She's a reliable vote in the senate for Israel. That's all you need to know.
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Replying to @ElliscbIV
It’s one poll, but I still think Jackson is favored to flip this seat.
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Replying to @ElliscbIV
Throw it in the average
🚨 New UMass Lowell poll for Maine has dropped. SENATE 🟦Troy Jackson - 48% 🟥Susan Collins - 43% GOVERNOR 🟦Hannah Pingree - 49% 🟥Bobby Charles - 38% 650 LVs | 08/28-09/14 Link: uml.edu/docs/2026-Sept-Maine…
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Replying to @ElliscbIV
now post the UMass one
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