Yet he can’t answer this.
Top 10 things to understand before a Scottish independence vote
1. Currency
Day one you either keep using sterling with no central bank behind you, or you launch a Scottish pound. A new pound locked 1:1 with sterling needs hard-currency reserves Scotland does not have. Peg plus a weak fiscal story is how pegs break.
2. Balanced budget
Holyrood balances because the UK still pays pensions, much of welfare, defence and debt interest, and sends a block grant. That stops with independence. GERS 2025–26: notional Scottish deficit about 10.9% of GDP vs about 4.2% for the UK. The Holyrood balance does not travel with you.
3. The dangerous combination
Closing a large deficit and defending 1:1 is the high-risk mix: cuts or tax and FX reserves and high enough rates to stop money leaving. Miss one and the currency, borrowing costs or services take the hit.
4. The gap is mostly spending, not uniquely weak tax
Revenue per person is close to the UK average including a geographic share of North Sea tax. Spending per person is higher. Replacing the transfer means cuts, tax, growth, borrowing or a mix.
5. Borrowing becomes possible and priced
The Holyrood borrowing cap goes. Markets will charge for a new issuer, a wide starting deficit, oil swings and the currency. A hard peg makes that pricing stricter.
6. There will be no lender of last resort
The Bank of England will not underwrite an independent Scotland’s banks. There is no currency union. The ECB will not do it either unless you are in the euro and you would not be, on day one, on sterling.
A lender of last resort is a central bank that can create the currency your banks are short of. If you use sterling and do not have the BoE, no one else can print pounds for you. That is the constraint.
7. A floating Scottish pound is not free
Fewer reserves than a peg, but prices, mortgages and imports can move. Printing your own notes only helps if people will hold them.
8. Oil and growth are not a day-one plug
North Sea revenue is real and volatile. Growth helps over years. Neither replaces the block grant on night one.
9. Banks and deposits sit on that gap
Without a LoLR in the currency you use, a bank run becomes a fiscal and political event: the state must borrow foreign currency or let banks fail. Deposit insurance without a money-printer behind it is only as good as the Treasury’s ability to tax or borrow.
10. The vote is a package
Not “can Scotland be a country” it can. The choice is sterling with no LoLR, or a new pound (peg or float), plus cuts, tax, growth or debt. The UK transfer ends. A 1:1 peg on a hole in the public finances, with nobody willing to print the currency your banks need, is the brittle option.