Prediction markets just leaked the entire Spotify Wrapped a day early. In October, prediction markets leaked the Nobel Peace Prize winner the night before the announcement. This month, the same trick leaked Spotify Wrapped’s top artists. Just like Nobel site, The Spotify Newsroom blog is run on WordPress. If you know where to look, you can query when they upload new images to the media library. Anyone who studied previous years would know that Spotify uploads the Wrapped graphics there before the blog post going live. So if you’re watching that feed, you can see tomorrow’s “big reveal” today, and trade on it before any public announcement. All year, Spotify’s streaming numbers are public, so most of the prediction markets on the event were already trading above 90%, but one ranking was a big surprise. Drake was on track to finish as the #3 artist globally, ahead of the Weeknd by over 2 billion streams. On the leaked graphic, he suddenly shows up at #4. This is likely tied to Spotify’s recent lawsuit over botted streams. It looks like they filtered out a huge chunk of Drake’s streams. The market on Drake was trading >95% yesterday morning and then began to dump and this image hit the site and traders discovered it. I got rinsed because I assumed the streaming numbers were static. Turns out Spotify can (and did) rewrite the data. Spotify wrapped officially drops tomorrow, but if you take a quick online web scraping course, you can figure out the whole list a day early!

Kalshi Virgin out, Kalshi Cuck in

brotherr, your team over there has spent literal years soliciting hit pieces on polymarket for *wash trading* and *rebate activity* that was significantly less egregious and arguably non existent when compared to what kalshi seems to be very accepting of today.

Last time Kalshi incorrectly settled a sports market, a UFC fight in April, they doubled down on the incorrect resolution, didn't claw back money from the losing side, and didn't even pay the rightful winner. So what changed in Michigan-WMU last night?

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CFTC Chair Michael Selig appeared unfamiliar with the products he is regulating during Thursday's Innovation Advisory Committee meeting. He incorrectly claimed that contracts such as the “mention markets” that President Trump’s former teleprompter operator traded were not offered by U.S.-regulated exchanges. ingame.com/cftc-chair-selig-…

kinda crazy that the big boss said that the Tele Prompter insider trading case was off shore.... when it was you guess it.... the green exchange

? AP: “On Kalshi, the price of a “yes” contract on Bass winning the Los Angeles mayoral election rose two cents, from about 63 cents to about 65 cents, within fifteen minutes of Median’s post.” + Median’s WI poll showed a 20pt Hong lead in WI. Kalshi was at 97c before she lost!

Reading through the paid quote tweets is sad. This account showed that Kalshi’s markets are getting manipulated for profit by artificially moving the BTC price over short time frames. That’s it. Take note of the disinformation crew replying to this slop.. John Wang Effect

??

Every mention markets success story ever: Trump said “expose” when the strike was actually “exposé” and somebody bonded Yes for 700k shares so I bought them all now I own a yacht.

“The two cities in the U.S. where Kalshi users are profitable are NYC and Chicago!! It’s because the citizens are smarter there.”

Considering most of the PnL gains here come from institutional market makers’, retail PnL on Kalshi after fees is likely even more negative than on OSBs.

The craziest part of the "debunking" is that the analyses Kalshi attacks for inflating retail losses actually massively *undercount* them. They mostly tally taker losses to makers and exclude fees, which are enormous and paid almost entirely by retail takers

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LeBron James and the Last Decision -- LONG THREAD WARNING-- Since we're at the eve of the decision, I figured I would summarize my thinking on this market. It's a pretty difficult one! It's very easy for someone to zero in on one or two points and form that as the single basis for the reason LeBron would pick team A or team B. My goal is not to push people to one option or the other, but just to get my thoughts out there and plant my flag before the announcement drops. I can hopefully look smart, but more likely to end up looking dumb because it does feel very open-ended. TL;DR I believe LeBron James is most likely to select the Miami Heat. Below is my long thread explaining, in narrative form, how I arrived at this. I feel Miami satisfies enough clusters of what he needs. But it is not a recommendation to buy or bet Miami at a particular price point -- being most likely might only mean 35%? 40%? I do not know if anyone can get more than 50% confident on a particular option here without inside knowledge. It's interesting to me that Kalshi has surfaced Miami as the leader versus more conventional wisdom about Cleveland or Golden State. If we get it right, it's a cool moment for prediction markets. Hopefully it doesn't mean insider trading but I digress. Also not me slamming the book buying tons of shares in the 40s and 50s. Unsure who that is or if they know more, I think the decision is probably kept tight enough that there's no inside info ... I don't think any winner would truly surprise me short of Mystery Team XYZ. You can form a case for any winner after-the-fact like "of course he chose Cleveland, its home!" "of course he chose Golden State, its steph! its close!" etc. Uncertainty is very high. Thread below.

It’s a real travesty we’ve been robbed of how Senegal would have dealt with all of this

Kalshi has now changed the brackets of their Maine Senate Exact Outcome market twice. It started out as: Graham Platner wins Then they changed it to: First Dem Nominee: Graham Platner, General Election Winner: Dem And now they changed it to: Democratic Party wins.

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Live right now breaking a big prediction market manipulation story from this week. Join the stream!