A sweeping account of the origins of wealth & inequality “Unparalleled in its scope and ambition” — Washington Post “An optimist’s guide to the future” — The Guardian “A sweeping overview…reminiscent of Sapiens” — FT “A great historical fresco” — Le Monde Int’l Bestseller Best Philosophy and Ideas Books 2022 — The Times Yaesu Book Award 2023 (Grand Prize) — Japan Author of the Year 2022 — CITIC Publishers, China “Masterful” — Lewis Dartnell “Completely brilliant and utterly original” — Jon Snow “Astounding in scope and insight” — Nouriel Roubini “A page-turner, a suspense-filled thriller, mind-bending puzzles and profound insights!” — Glenn Loury

In the current @EJ_RES ‘Roots of Cultural and Linguistic Traits' by Oded Galor, Ömer Özak, Assaf Sarid doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueaf117 @RoyalEconSoc #EconTwitter

How did culture evolve? What shaped the mosaic within and across societies? Ancestral migration, socioeconomic change, ecological mismatch, and prehistoric diversity shaped adaptation, from @GalorOded, @Marc_Klemp, and Daniel C. Wainstock nber.org/papers/w35656

Food for thought! "Cultural Evolution" by Oded Galor, Marc Klemp, and Daniel C. Wainstock. "What gave rise to the mosaic of cultural expressions across the globe? Why are some societies more culturally diverse than others? This study develops a unified theory of cultural evolution, characterizing the forces that have governed this process over the course of human existence. The research advances the hypothesis that population movements and socioeconomic transformations generated a mismatch between inherited cultural traits and prevailing ecological and societal conditions, setting in motion an evolutionary process governed by adaptation-based vertical transmission, horizontal diffusion, and fitness-based evolutionary selection. The theory generates novel testable predictions concerning the origins of the global cultural mosaic and the cross-societal variation in cultural diversity. First, greater ecological distance between ancestral environments generated greater cultural distance across societies. Second, prehistoric differences in ancestral diversity contributed to divergent adaptive capacity and greater cultural distance. Third, societies descended from more diverse prehistoric populations exhibit greater cultural diversity despite convergence induced by adaptation to a common environment and societal norms. Drawing on measures of cultural distance and diversity derived from folkloric and musical traditions among ethnic groups, visual representations of common concepts, and the dispersion of norms, values, and attitudes, the empirical analysis lends credence to the predictions of the theory." ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp12928…

Food for thought: A good summer read! "The Journey of Humanity: The Origins of Wealth and Inequality" by Oded Galor. "Why are humans the only species to have escaped—only very recently—the subsistence trap, allowing us to enjoy a standard of living that vastly exceeds all others? And why have we progressed so unequally around the world, resulting in the great disparities between nations that exist today? Galor’s gripping narrative explains how technology, population size, and adaptation led to a stunning “phase change” in the human story a mere two hundred years ago. But by tracing that same journey back in time and peeling away the layers of influence—colonialism, political institutions, societal structure, culture—he arrives also at an explanation of inequality’s ultimate causes: those ancestral populations that enjoyed fruitful geographical characteristics and rich diversity were set on the path to prosperity, while those that lacked it were disadvantaged in ways still echo today." amzn.to/4cFpD4e

Many of you sent me messages or left comments with more papers linking economic growth and directional selection. Thanks very much! Oded Galor, @GalorOded, reminds me, in particular, of his paper with Ömer Özak, @OmerOzakEcon, in the AER, “The Agricultural Origins of Time Preference,” which links pre-industrial agro-climatic conditions favorable to higher returns to agricultural investment with a persistent positive effect on long-term orientation today. This is at the core of yesterday’s discussion. Omer Moav, @Omer_Moav, posts a short review of recent findings: warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/econom… and a discussion of the relation with Gregory Clark’s (@GregoryClarkUCD) “A Farewell to Alms.” I apologize to Gregory for not mentioning his book (which I use when teaching undergrads!). There was no deeper motivation than wanting to keep the post short. Unfortunately, X is not the best platform to acknowledge everyone’s contributions. Radoslaw Stefanski (@stefanski_radek) and Alex Trew follow a similar line of argument in “Selection, Patience, and the Interest Rate” in JPE: Macro, arguing that endogenous selection on patience helps explain falling interest rates. It also predicts a long transitional rise in savings rates, generating transitional growth. After all, selection is the ultimate driver of economic growth. We do not see much increase in the income per capita of squirrels. Without evolution, there would be no technological improvement or sophisticated division of labor (yes, among some animals, there are degrees of cultural improvement or division of labor, but nothing that sustains long-run growth). The discussion is only whether directional selection made a difference over the last few thousand years. Paul Novosad, @paulnovosad, draws my attention to “Cognitive Endurance as Human Capital” in the QJE by Christina Brown, @christinalbrown, Supreet Kaur, Geeta Kingdon, and Heather Schofield, who show that schooling may build human capital by expanding the capacity for cognition. In particular, they document that the experience of effortful thinking itself, even when devoid of any subject content, improves general cognitive capacity. So, yes, practicing the five declensions of Latin and the three voices of Ancient Greek is probably a much more useful allocation of time than “At Lincoln Elementary, we inspire every child to become a confident, curious, lifelong learner ready to thrive in an ever-changing global community.” There are many more papers and books, but I do not want to overextend myself. I only want to point out to young students and researchers what a vibrant field economics is. Check the webpages of Oded, Ömer, Omer, Gregory, Radoslaw, Alex, and everyone I cited here, and you will find dozens of fascinating papers. Also, on a personal level, I have had the good fortune to interact a bit with Oded and Omer. Both are true scholars in the best sense of the word, curious about the world and seeking to get things “right,” not just another publication. I do not always agree with their readings of the evidence, but even when I do not, I learn an immense amount from them. And guess what? It seems that time is vindicating their views.

Last night I listened to David Reich’s interview with @dwarkesh_sp on his new Nature paper, “Ancient DNA reveals pervasive directional selection across West Eurasia.” dwarkesh.com/p/david-reich-2 Reich and his team present a method for detecting directional selection in ancient DNA time series, testing for consistent trends in allele frequency over time. They find that hundreds of alleles have been under strong directional selection, including alleles correlated with measures of cognitive performance. I have followed David Reich’s work for over a decade now and cite him in my economic history courses all the time. Nothing has changed my view of ancient history as much as his research, and the research his methods have triggered. His findings also bear directly on another line of work, “Natural Selection and the Origin of Economic Growth” by @GalorOded and @Omer_Moav at the Quarterly Journal of Economics, which proposes a similar mechanism. Reich’s results give a serious empirical boost to Galor and Moav's research agenda. Reich returns several times in the interview to behavior related to what economists call the discount rate (without using such a term). The evidence suggests that humans began discounting the future less with the advent of agriculture, because directional selection favored patience. I’ve long thought modern schooling serves this same function, training people to defer immediate rewards for long-term gains, and that such training is the most valuable trait one can have in daily life. Contrary to the Foucaults and Freires of the world, that schools are boring is a feature, not a bug. I don’t expect anyone at the schools of education to get this.

Loss aversion — losses hurt twice as much as gains — is Kahneman and Tversky’s most famous finding, taught as universal. But @GalorOded and Savitskiy show it varies systematically across populations. Your ancestors’ climate shapes how loss-averse you are.

Every premodern technological surge — Greece, Rome — fizzled into stagnation. Then England's Industrial Revolution stuck. What changed wasn't coal, trade, or institutions. According to @GalorOded and Moav, it was the population itself.

Intriguing new NBER paper, finding "96% of U.S. income inequality arises from variation within groups sharing common ancestral origins, far overshadowing the comparatively small share attributable to differences between these groups." nber.org/papers/w34558

Javier Milei citó en FENOA al fundador de la teoría del crecimiento unificado @GalorOded

What are the roots of global prosperity—and inequality? Join us online for the 2025 #STEG Special Lecture with @GalorOded (@BrownUniversity) 📅 29 April | 🕓 16:00 BST Chaired by Doug Gollin @TuftsUniversity 🔗 Register: steg.cepr.org/events/steg-sp…

📘 'El viaje de la humanidad' (@GalorOded) es una defensa implícita del progreso basado en libertad, innovación y conocimiento. Una lectura esencial para liberales que quieren entender cómo prosperan las sociedades. #LecturaRecomendada #Economía #Liberalismo @EdDestino

We are pleased to announce that on February 19, 2025, Professor Oded Galor was awarded an Honorary Doctorate from Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń. Professor Galor is renowned for his pioneering contributions to economic theory, particularly his unified theory of growth.

What sparked humanity's leap from stagnation to prosperity? What lies at the core of inequality among nations? Insights from Unified Growth Theory, from @GalorOded nber.org/papers/w33288

What underlies differences in cultural diversity across societies? The out-of-Africa migration. Societies whose ancestors migrated farther from Africa show lower diversity in music, folklore, and social norms, values & attitudes. ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps…  #econtwitter (1/4)

Oded Galor’s slim new book—simply breathtaking in scope.

The Decline in Transformative Science This trend has been partly reflected in the transition towards “nano economics” -- the thorough investigation of narrow research questions whose results are self-evident at the outset or inconsequential. tinyurl.com/5t5fshk7

Societies whose ancestors migrated farther from humanity’s cradle in Africa exhibit lower cultural diversity.