周末 AI 圈齐声谈「放缓」,有人直接喊别装怂
这几天 OpenAI、Anthropic 这边都在谈同一件事:前沿模型跑太快了,得踩刹车。
有人说进度本身就是警告;有人传 OpenAI 也在考虑放慢研发。中文圈已经开始传「三大巨头周末齐声要放缓」。
接着 David Sacks 出来怼:你们自己就是前沿,别装怂。
这话一下子把温度拉高了——不是讨论要不要安全,是质疑「嘴上减速、手上油门」是不是在演戏。
把事情拆开看,其实有三层:
1. 实验室在说风险:能力涨得太猛,监管和安全跟不上。
2. 产品还在狂推:新模型、新功能、额度、算力叙事一个没停。
3. 舆论开始撕裂:一边信「真的怕了」,一边骂「说给监管和资本市场听的」。
所以这场「放缓」争论,核心不是技术名词,是信任:
你到底是在保护用户,还是在抢规则制定权、顺便公关?
AI 已经强到能改代码、建网站、当助手;可服务端还在刷 overloaded,安全线又有人离职喊停。
嘴上减速容易,让人信你减速很难。
你更信「真踩刹车」,还是「表演式放缓」?
Dario has written that we need to “pace the frontier,” and Sam has agreed. People may be surprised by my response: go ahead.
You guys are the frontier. By any reasonable metric — market share, revenue growth, model capability — the two of you have a duopoly on frontier intelligence. You’ve also claimed the lead is widening because of recursive self-improvement.
I don’t see what you see in the lab. If the unreleased models are scary enough that you think you should slow down, I support your decision to be responsible.
But stop pretending you need anyone else’s permission. Stop pretending antitrust law has to be suspended so you can form a cartel. Stop pretending you need a regulatory approval process that supersedes product liability. Stop pretending METR is independent when it is intertwined with Anthropic’s investors and staff. Stop pretending you need those same evaluators to police competitors who aren’t even at the frontier.
Most of all, stop pretending the motivation to slow down is purely altruistic. You face massive product-liability exposure if your products enable a truly damaging cyberattack. The market already punishes models that behave in unpredictable or unauthorized ways. After the Hugging Face episode, it is simply good business for OpenAI and Anthropic to trade some raw power for reliability and predictability. Call it alignment if you want. It is also just giving customers what they want.
Pacing the frontier would also create breathing room for a more intelligent conversation about regulation than Bernie Sanders’ “shut it all down.” China is very unlikely to join a global agreement, as you know, and that has to be taken into account as well.
So go ahead and pace the frontier. You are the ones setting it. The easiest way not to build superintelligence is for you to agree not to build it. Demanding your preferred regulatory framework as the price of that will look like blackmail of the public and the political system. So just do it.
If you do, you’ll buy goodwill for the next conversation. If you don’t, we’ll know this was just another bid for regulatory capture — or an election-season psyop.