On our latest podcast, @nathanlgonzales & @JacobRubashkin discussed our latest congressional projections ahead of November 3.
Senate: D +2 to 4
House: D +2 to 10
NEW | Nine House ratings changes in today's issue of @InsideElections — subscribers got the full readout this afternoon.
All in Democrats' favor, including 3 new districts nudging onto the board: FL-16, TX-9, and WI-1.
There was a looming question on the final night of the Republican Midterm Convention. Was this the overture for a comeback performance, or the closing number of the congressional majorities?
Read the latest.
insideelections.com/finale-o…
We shifted four ratings for increasingly competitive Senate races:
#AKSen Lean R → Tilt R
#OHSen Tilt R →Toss-up
#NHSen Tilt D → Toss-up
#KSSen Solid R → Likely R
🚨 3 of our House race ratings shifted away from Republicans this week:
#FL14 (Castor): Lean R → Tilt R
#MN01 (Finstad): Solid R → Likely R
#TX35 (Open; Casar): Likely R → Lean R
And 5 more races just shifted towards Democrats:
#CA21 Likely D ➡️ Solid D
#CA45 Tilt D ➡️ Lean D
#CO5 Likely R ➡️ Lean R
#NJ9 Lean D ➡️ Likely D
#TX15 Lean R ➡️ Tilt R
NEW | Idaho Sen. Jim Risch maintains a large lead over independent Todd Achilles after Democrat David Roth dropped out, per new Peak Insights poll for the Risch campaign obtained by @InsideElections.
Risch 52
Achilles 18
Fleming 9
Loesby 2
500 LV, 8/11-13, live caller
Which 2026 candidates do YOU think will run for higher office in the future? Are there nontraditional candidates we missed? Whose slate will reign supreme? The @InsideElections crew and @MattKleinOnline had a blast with the first ever 2026 candidate draft:
piped.video/B8fbMLfr1CU?t=1&si=…