deputy editor @InsideElections / formerly @NBCNews, @cnn, @cornellsun / say hello: jacob@insideelections.com
Washington, DC
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A big swing in NY-03 against Rep. Tom Suozzi in a district where the parties really disagree on the state of the race and whether Republican Mike LiPetri can improve on his 2-point loss last cycle.
Trump SuperPAC No Going Back PAC drops another $28.5 million across 30 House and Senate races.
#OHSEN $4,932,645
#MISEN $3,763,601
#NCSEN $2,953,076
#FL25 $2,354,986
#NY03 $2,083,891
#NHSEN $1,757,471
#AKSEN $1,709,761
#FL14 $1,648,708
#MI04 $850,960
#IA02 $800,834
#TX35 $783,626
#NC11 $663,951
#GASEN $641,125
#MT01 $624,946
#TX15 $567,094
#WA03 $551,250
#CO05 $383,595
#TX34 $273,125
#KY06 $244,476
#NM02 $235,375
#AL02 $223,834
#IA01 $108,948
#OH15 $92,660
#NE02 $83,174
#OH10 $72,740
#SC01 $56,136
#NJ09 $37,252
#CA13 $2,193
#TX09 $1,544
#MI08 $1,081
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“Given this Court’s two prior orders in
this litigation, our conclusion that this was error should come as no surprise.”
SCOTUS is tired
BREAKING: The Supreme Court stayed lower court orders requiring Missouri to use its 2025 congressional map in November, allowing the state to continue using its 2022 map. The Court cited its earlier stay and concerns about changing election rules after voting has begun.
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Notable - GOP Rep. Bryan Steil going negative on his Democratic opponent, Mitchell Berman, in WI-01.
On paper a promising district for Democrats but Berman is at a significant financial disadvantage.
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Recall that the Talarico camp's position on this supportive PAC is quite negative:
“They are the embodiment of the broken, corrupt political system our campaign is running against, where DC insiders look to make a profit off this movement to take power back for working people.”
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That was back in June.
Also, Moment of Truth said then it aimed to spend $62 million to support Talarico. With 5 weeks left, this $1.6 million is its first foray into the race. texastribune.org/2026/06/09/…
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Really fun episode today with @teddyschleifer about the massive influx of MAGA Inc. money pouring into the midterms, as well as the explosion of untraceable dark money in our elections >>>
piped.video/NGrqv4R-nTY?si=HTAZ…
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That UNH Vermont poll had just 48% of voters aged 50+ and 27% aged 18-34. If you believe that’s what the actual electorate will look like in November, I have some oceanfront property in Burlington to sell you.
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Jacob Rubashkin retweeted
Here's an eye-popping graph, illustrating the steep slope of national GOP money pouring in for Ken Paxton in #TXSEN:
SLF-backed Texas PAC is up to $68.5M in ad buys, surpassing Talarico's $56M, per @AdImpact_Pol.
texastribune.org/2026/07/20/… via @TexasTribune
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So rather than GOP trying to boost a non-Peltola Democrat into the general to hurt her, this was in fact Dems boosting a non-Peltola Dem into the general so he could drop out at the last second and ensure that the Republican who finished after them got pushed into the general?
Remember this group from the #AKSEN primary?
Senate Majority PAC, the top Democratic super PAC in Senate races, donated $300K to it on Aug. 6, per a new FEC filing.
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Is "Advanced Targeting Research" a real polling firm? They have a bare-bones website with stock images, there are no actual people attached to it, and all three "reports" on their site link to the same pdf.
Not to mention their Idaho poll doesn't pass the smell test.
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People *really* have to start thinking for more than five seconds before they boost every single "poll" they see come across the timeline.
If something seems off, something is probably off.
The strategies for reading public polling are the same you should take when assessing internals. There’s nothing magic about either — ultimately it’s all just polling. A few easy q’s:
Do I know this pollster and do they have a track record?
Are they using a sound methodology?
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NEW | Private and public polling shows a close race, statewide and at the congressional level. The environment is bad. It's not a swing state anymore, but in 2026 it's still worth watching.
Florida Gov: Likely Republican ➡️ Lean Republican
insideelections.com/governor…
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NEW | Nine House ratings changes in today's issue of @InsideElections — subscribers got the full readout this afternoon.
All in Democrats' favor, including 3 new districts nudging onto the board: FL-16, TX-9, and WI-1.
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Do think it’s important to keep in mind that there’s a clear division of labor happening between CLF and Trump-world. While the Trump PACs are spending in more Republican territory, CLF’s buys so far are in the center of the battleground and still include offensive targets.
Amazing: Trump's super PAC is spending or reserving TV ad time in 17 House districts that Trump carried by more than 5 points, per ad tracking data we obtained.
That includes 6 districts he won by double digits.
The map is expanding big time:
newrepublic.com/article/2155…
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It’s not a great sign for Republicans that they have to spend to defend deep into their own territory and that those seats are at risk. But one of the advantages of their financial strength is that isn’t coming at the expense of the center of the battleground. They can do both.
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