Great question!!
1. I put Tesla as number one, the gold medal, for a reason -- they have the clearest path to winning the most market share because of vertical integration.
2. However, China can make the cheapest cars in the world with price dumping and cheap labor; they will provide AVs to 75% of consumers. Basically, everyone on Earth but the USA--which will block Chinese AVs forever.
3. Uber will have 20+ partners giving them the most AVs globally; most of them will cost under $30-40k -- basically right behind Tesla's cost. In aggregate, that will give
$UBER the silver medal... and their stock will be $500 in ten years.
4. Don't be surprised if Uber owns NURO, LUCID and an Asian low-cost car maker in the next three years. They can buy all these companies eventually with their cash flow. Easy transition for
@dkhos to manage if he goes that way.
5. The company most at risk is Waymo, which is going to need to buy a car company in the next year or two to scale their program and get cars down to $30k. That's why I put them in 3rd place with a bronze medal.
6. The ridesharing pie is going to explode from 1% of rides to 30% of rides... that gives Tesla 12 points of global rides, Uber 11 points and Waymo 5 points -- let that sink in. That's a huge market that one company simply can't own...
7. Regulators will slow AV deployment massively in order to save people's jobs and off-board drivers without causing riots and Waymo being burned in the streets. See China for background on AV deployment being halted.