Editorial Director & Senior Policy Fellow @ECFR | Formerly @OpenSociety @NewStatesman @TheEconomist | Also at: bsky.app/profile/jeremycliff…
Berlin, Germany
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Initial thoughts by @jana_puglierin and me on the European significance of the AfD’s landslide result in Saxony-Anhalt, and what happens next:
ecfr.eu/article/beyond-saxon…
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Jeremy Cliffe retweeted
Tune in to hear our discussion with @markhleonard on Turkey as a pivotal state and why it is a unique “embedded outsider” — and what Europe should do about the challenges and opportunities ahead. This is based on our recent @ECFR paper with @Evreki
New week, new podcast!
Mark Leonard and Aslı Aydıntaşbaş explore Turkey’s unique position in European and global politics. How aligned—or misaligned—is Turkey w/ its Western allies? What role does it play in Ukrainian & Black Sea diplomacy? ecfr.eu/podcasts/episode/tur…
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1/1 Marine Le Pen is running for the French presidency in 2027.
For Europe, that means preparing for the possibility of a France very different from the one it knows today, write @celiabelin, @JeremyCliffe, @CamilleLons and Constance Victore. A 🧵
buff.ly/TYm5Gd0
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In polls for the next federal election AfD is now top in West Germany, including here in Germany's largest state. Given that NRW has more residents than the entire former East, it's simplistic to keep blaming the AfD's rise on disgruntled Ossis
NORDRHEIN-WESTFALEN | Sonntagsfrage Bundestagswahl Forsa/Kölner Stadt-Anzeiger
AfD: 24% (+2)
CDU: 22% (-4)
GRÜNE: 18%
SPD: 14% (+1)
LINKE: 12% (+3)
FDP: 3% (-1)
Sonstige: 7% (-1)
Änderungen zur letzten Umfrage vom 22. April 2026
Verlauf: whln.eu/BTWBundeslaender
#btw29
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Europe is under attack from three sides – but the EU and Nato are unfit to defend us. This is why a European security council is needed. My latest @guardian
theguardian.com/commentisfre…
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Ich freue mich sehr, am Tag der Deutschen Einheit mit dem Bundesverdienstkreuz ausgezeichnet zu werden.
I am delighted to be awarded the Federal Cross of Merit on German Unity Day.
Eine echte Überraschung - Quite the surprise.
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AfD now fully 10 points ahead of CDU/CSU in national polling...
Sonntagsfrage zur Bundestagswahl • INSA/BILD: AfD 29,5 % | CDU/CSU 19,5 % | SPD 13,5 % | GRÜNE 13,5 % | DIE LINKE 10,5 % | FDP 4,5 % | BSW 3,5 % | Sonstige 5,5 %
➤ Übersicht: wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
➤ Verlauf: wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.h…
ALT Säulendiagramm der Sonntagsfrage zur Bundestagswahl von INSA für BILD
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Thanks @thomaswright08 for mentioning my @CarnegieEndow paper on the AfD's foreign policies in this sharp piece for The Atlantic: "Trump is betting on the wrong Europe"
theatlantic.com/internationa…
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The UAE built its power by turning itself into a hub that binds it to every great power at once. The war with Iran has tested this strategy and is forcing a rethink in Abu Dhabi, writes @Cinzia_Bianco. @ECFRMena
ecfr.eu/publication/little-v…
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Hello world, meet Germany‘s equivalent to @NYCMayor Mamdani - Elif Eralp who just won a landslide victory in Berlin for @dielinkeberlin. She is on the course to become Berlin‘s first mayor with immigrant background, and the second Turkish speaker after Ernst Reuter.
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Both exit polls in Berlin's state election put socialist Left party comfortably ahead of rest. If reflected in results, will put @ElifEralpBerlin in strong position to lead next state government if she can do deal with Greens + SPD. AfD looks to be underperforming its polling.
Die Prognosen der ARD/ZDF (infratest dimap/Forschungsgruppe Wahlen) um 18:00 Uhr zur Landtagswahl in #Berlin
CDU 20% / 20%
SPD 12% / 12%
Grüne 15% / 15,5%
Linke 24,5% / 26%
AfD 16% / 13,5%
BSW 5% / 5%
Sonstige 7,5% / 8%
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Meanwhile exit polls in Mecklenburg–Western Pomerania put AfD narrowly ahead. But what a catch-up over the course of campaign by SPD's Manuela Schwesig, v likely securing her another term and (if she wants it) prospects of SPD chancellor candidacy in 2029. Disaster for CDU.
Die Prognosen der ARD/ZDF (infratest dimap/Forschungsgruppe Wahlen) um 18:00 Uhr zur Landtagswahlen in #Mecklenburg-Vorpommern:
SPD 35,5% / 36,5 %
AfD 37,0% / 38,0%
CDU 5,5% / 5,0%
Linke 7,5% / 6,0%
Grüne 5,5% / 5,5%
BSW 5,0% / 4,8%
Sonstige 4,0% / 4,2%
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Turkey has become an embedded outsider: a middle power that builds strategic autonomy from inside the Western system—because that is where its leverage comes from, writes ECFR´s associate senior policy fellow @asliaydintasbas and @Evreki international relations professor at Özyeğin University
Read full policy brief here: ecfr.eu/publication/an-outsi…
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Thank you @ZNConsulting!
📌 The full #EUinfluencer2026 ranking on X is now live.
For 10 years, #EUinfluencer has mapped the voices shaping Europe’s conversations.
Explore this year’s complete Top 50 below, congrats! 🏆znconsulting.com/euinfluence…
#10YearsOfEUinfluencer
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Jeremy Cliffe retweeted
📌 The full #EUinfluencer2026 ranking on X is now live.
For 10 years, #EUinfluencer has mapped the voices shaping Europe’s conversations.
Explore this year’s complete Top 50 below, congrats! 🏆znconsulting.com/euinfluence…
#10YearsOfEUinfluencer
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Jeremy Cliffe retweeted
Congratulations to the X #EUinfluencer2026 Top 10:
10. @VanberghenEU
9. @TomMayerEuropa
8. @Suanzes
7. @TheresaAFallon
6. @DaveKeating
5. @davcarretta
4. @SariArhoHavren
🥉@JavierBlas
🥈@JeremyCliffe
🥇@tconnellyRTE
#EUinfluencer #10YearsofEUInfluencer 🏆
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Jeremy Cliffe retweeted
Macron confirms Tusk’s warnings from yesterday as he says the Russian threat “has intensified” and calls for civil preparedness, better protection of critical infrastructure against potential Russian attacks
🔴 "La menace hybride russe à l'égard des Européens et de la France s'est intensifiée", déclare Emmanuel Macron dans son discours à l'Élysée, avant d'ajouter : "La nature de l'agressivité russe en Europe change". #canal16
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Jeremy Cliffe retweeted
4/4 The key shift is from setting targets to making the transition work in people’s everyday lives. National, regional and local governments will have to show that climate policy can improve life now, while strengthening Europe’s economy, resilience and ability to act.
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3/4 Our authors argue that restarting the green transition requires a better political strategy:
-bring climate policy closer to voters
-deliver visible benefits sooner
-distribute costs more fairly
-broaden the pro-climate coalition
-link decarbonisation to European sovereignty
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Jeremy Cliffe retweeted
All votes counted in Sweden. The opposition gets 176 seats in the Riksdag, the four "Tidö"-parties supporting the current government 173. Now Magdalena Andersson has the difficult task of forming a government. This is what it could mean for Europe. ecfr.eu/article/after-tido-w… @ecfr
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