Senior Fellow @BrookingsFP. Contributing writer @TheAtlantic, Formerly Biden NSC, Author of All Measures Short of War, co-author of Aftershocks. Views my own.
Washington DC
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Some news. I have a short Penguin special (just 25,000 words) coming out as part of a @LowyInstitute paper series on April 28. It's called Inflection Point: Biden, Trump, and the Future World Order.
It's partly a memoir with reflections on my time in the Biden administration and partly an analysis of Trump's second term.
The key argument is that there are now two America's: 1) an internationalism that focuses on a post-neoliberal global economy, strategic competition and tech, and 2) an America First movement that builds on Trump's second term.
These two Americas will compete for the foreseeable future but never destroy the other. The world will need to hedge against this volatile fluctuation.
Pre-order here. Just $6.99 for the Kindle version and $10 for the paperback.
penguin.com.au/books/inflect…
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Tom Wright retweeted
“A future American president may promise to build a new and improved international order. But Xi and Putin will have little reason to accept the restraints Washington wants to restore,” @thomaswright08 argues: theatlantic.com/internationa…
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1/ Joint press conferences have been a common feature of past state visits by Chinese leaders to the White House, including Jiang Zemin (1997), Hu Jintao (2011), and Xi Jinping (2015). (There wasn't one during Hu's 2006 visit.) The absence of one this week will be notable. (🧵)
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My latest
“A future American president may promise to build a new and improved international order. But Xi and Putin will have little reason to accept the restraints Washington wants to restore,” @thomaswright08 argues: theatlantic.com/internationa…
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My latest for @TheAtlantic -- The Makings of a Prewar World.
Putin, Xi, and Trump have each acted in ways to undermine and destroy the postwar international order. It cannot be rebuilt or replaced until all three have left the stage (at the earliest). The task of the next president will be to stop the deterioration, preserve the peace, and inject some stability into world affairs.
Gift link: theatlantic.com/internationa…
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Tom Wright retweeted
Interesting. A kind of EU+IP4 mtg. EU "informal" mtg w/ Australia, India, Japan, ROK.
HRVP noted EU has security & defense partnerships with 🇦🇺🇮🇳🇯🇵🇰🇷; agenda: multilateralism, Europe-Asia security linkages, economic security.
(last yr, EU informal mtg had 🇮🇳🇧🇷🇲🇽)
Appreciated meeting my European Union colleagues this afternoon in New York #UNGA81
Discussed India-EU cooperation, multilateral issues and current developments, including in the Gulf, Ukraine and Indo-Pacific.
#UNHighLevelWeek
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I used Claude to produce a graphic mapping global conflicts, rivalries and alignments. Some thoughts here on what it all means.
substack.com/home/post/p-216…
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Thanks @thomaswright08 for mentioning my @CarnegieEndow paper on the AfD's foreign policies in this sharp piece for The Atlantic: "Trump is betting on the wrong Europe"
theatlantic.com/internationa…
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Tom Wright retweeted
"AI systems can be very smart and very dumb at the same time, and eventually they can jailbreak."
Listen to Elham Tabassi in conversation with @kyleichan and @thomaswright08 on @BrookingsInst's The Current podcast: brook.gs/4xBi5as
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Re-upping my piece for @TheAtlantic from Saturday on Trump and the AfD in light of yesterday’s regional elections in Germany.
theatlantic.com/internationa…
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EXCLUSIVE: Read my interview with Treasury Secretary #ScottBessent and USTR #JamiesonGreer after meeting Chinese vice-premier He Lifeng in New York 👇
Separately, senior US official told me the two sides did not reach agreement on extending the Busan truce.
ft.com/content/d29d769e-039c…
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Interesting piece, esp given the source, that comes v close to calling for a change in government in Israel.
The collapse in public support for Israel could trigger a financial and economic war against the Jewish state. The architecture for it is already taking shape.
My latest: fdd.org/analysis/2026/09/06/…
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I’m starting a substack as my main platform for writing about geopolitical developments and, increasingly, the Democratic debate on the future of U.S. foreign policy. Subscription is free. Please join me there. Today, I start out with some thoughts on the Greenland deal as well as posting my new piece for @TheAtlantic on Trump’s support for the AfD. substack.com/@thomasjwright/…
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My latest for @TheAtlantic
Donald Trump says he wants a Europe that is more capable of defending itself—but the populist movements he is championing advance a different agenda, @thomaswright08 argues. theatlantic.com/internationa…
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There's been some speculation (see below) as to whether the Trump administration will have a giant Chinese flag draped over the Eisenhower Executive Office Building in the White House complex. This often happens for state visits although a AI search says Trump did not do it for King Charles' state visit in his second term. It may be symbolic but worth watching to see if he does for China what he did not do for the UK.
Trump is racing to get the White House ready for Xi Jinping—and he keeps talking about it.
The North Portico scaffolding is coming down, @ddiamond reports today. The new helipad is finished.
“Everybody’s fighting for tickets,” Trump said of demand for seats at the planned state dinner, but the new ballroom won’t be ready in time.
Which leaves the really important question: Are we getting the giant Chinese flag on the Executive Office Building?
Obama did it for Xi in 2015. Trump's White House did the same for Macron in 2018 and Scott Morrison in 2019.
If so, it could produce one of the most surreal images of the entire visit.
For more on what to watch out for on Xi's visit: juliangewirtz.substack.com/p…
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You could also insert "Russia", "Ukraine", and "China" here in place of Iran.
White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, on Marco Rubio: "“The reason that the American people perhaps don’t see Secretary Rubio as front and center on Iran is because he really does have the rest of the world to worry about ... (cont.)
nbcnews.com/politics/trump-a… via @nbcnews
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Important and sobering article by Seth Center on the lessons of the 2024 US-China talks on AI safety and what to expect now. nytimes.com/2026/09/16/opini…
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Okay, so now we find out if the fears were justified or not. I hope I was wrong.
BREAKING!!! 🗳️ The U.S. Congress has just passed sweeping Russia-Iran sanctions legislation championed by the late Sen. Lindsey Graham.
The bill now heads to President Trump’s desk and is expected to be signed in the coming days.
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Adversary alignment cont.
14 Russian spy satellites moved over a US military base in Saudi Arabia two days before a devastating attack by Iran.
The timing & sequencing of the spacecraft gave them access to a large spectrum of data which, sources say, helped Iran conduct some of its most precise attacks against US assets. @tamaraqiblawi reports.
cnn.com/2026/09/16/world/vid…
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Tom Wright retweeted
With @thomaswright08 on this. Belief that lack of authorities is the missing ingredient for Trump to put more pressure on Russia is triumph of hope over experience. Believe bill is well-intentioned but given track record more likely to be abused than used.
I respect those who signed this letter supporting the Russia sanctions bill but find it extraordinary that it does not even address the main concerns with the bill, which is that it does not mandate new sanctions on Russia (it largely codifies existing measures and introduces a all purpose waiver) but will give Trump sweeping new tariff powers that he can use against the EU and others. nationalinterest.org/feature…
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