KB’s Week 2 Sunday NFL Prop #1 🏈
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Chris Olave “O” 5.5 Receptions
Olave is the clear No. 1 option for Tyler Shough, with consistent volume whenever they’ve shared the field. He has cleared this line in 7/11 games with Shough, and across their last 3 starts Olave has piled up 28 receptions. In Week 1, he caught 10 of 13 targets for 182 yards as New Orleans erased a 21-point deficit against Detroit. Olave is now averaging 6.9 receptions & 10.2 targets per game with Shough at QB.
In Week 1, Olave ran 55 routes and saw 13 targets for a 24% targets-per-route rate while accounting for 50.3% of New Orleans’ air yards. He also posted a 29.3% first-read target share with an 18-yard aDOT, showing he was consistently one of Shough’s first options.
That role was already established last season. Olave finished 2025 with 156 targets and 100 receptions, while Kellen Moore has done a great job moving him around the formation. Olave has lined up in the slot on roughly 42% of his routes, with Moore using motion and condensed formations to create free releases on hitches, outs, crossers and intermediate routes.
His usage last season was ELITE amongst all WRs:
📈 9.75 Targets Per Game (5th Best)
📈 6.3 Receptions Per Game (7th Best)
📈 1,816 Air Yards (7th Best)
📈 30 Third Down Receptions (3rd Best)
That versatility should be important against Baltimore. Jesse Minter played 77% zone coverage in Week 1 while leaning heavily on nickel and dime personnel. Olave has been more productive against zone than man over the last two seasons, averaging 2.36 yards per route run against zone compared to 1.94 against man, giving Shough opportunities to consistently find him underneath.
Baltimore allowed plenty of WR volume last season, giving up 13.0 receptions per game to the position, 31st in the NFL, while allowing an NFL-high 21.4 WR targets per game. In Week 1, Keenan Allen caught 6/6 targets while Alec Pierce and Josh Downs combined for another 6 receptions. Allen did most of his damage underneath, which fits Olave’s usage, as 53.9% of his targets have come in the short area of the field.
Even if Marlon Humphrey sees plenty of Olave, New Orleans can move him into the slot or across the formation to prevent Baltimore from simply matching one corner with him all afternoon.
New Orleans enters as an 8.5-point road underdog, so Shough could be forced to throw throughout the second half. If Olave continues commanding around a quarter of the targets, a much more normal passing workload than last week should still put him in position for another 9-11 target game.
Olave was limited Thursday with a hamstring issue, but there’s no indication he’s expected to miss Sunday. He left the Detroit game twice with a leg issue, returned both times and caught 3 passes for 70 yards afterward, so we’ve already seen him produce through discomfort. He also wasn’t listed on Wednesday’s injury report, making this feel more precautionary for now.
Olave has established himself as Shough’s go-to receiver, Moore continues finding ways to get him open, and Baltimore’s zone-heavy approach should give him opportunities underneath. With New Orleans likely needing to throw, we like Olave to stay heavily involved and record 6+ receptions.
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