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8 months ago i publicly exited crypto markets, at that point I had received enough confirms that we would have had 6/12 months of bear market, the initial plan was to reenter the market not before q4 2026 or when it would have signaled a trend inversion.
That was when most people were still in and bullish.
Now I'm reading a lot of people on CT waiting for market bottom in Q4, these are people that roundtripped most of their gains, exited only recently during the last dip, so now they are hoping to have an extra leg down to at least being able to reenter with a greater number of BTC and ETH.
So I'm not so sure that we will have that happening, a summer rally would be one of the most hated rally probably at this point.
Sidelined ?
Yes.
"Never marry your bags" is the motto that basically everyone in crypto has been hearing hundreds of times.
And yet, we periodically end up marrying our bags.
Even if it's not meant to be a specific token, we end up marrying a narrative, even marrying crypto as a whole.
"If I don't make it in crypto I'm fucked up"
"The economy is rotten, there are no asymmetric opportunities apart crypto"
"I need to lock in, and yolo"
This is all part of a culture that has been injected into crypto but was not native to it.
It was injected because it's functional to the guys that manipulate the market to keep a few hundreds thousands of guys around the world, sticked to their pcs for months/years, draining them emotionally and energetically.
"There are huge opportunities, and chances to make money", "find your hedge", and motivational stuff like this, vomited by some larping kol that is more broken than his followers.
It's true, there are opportunities, but how asymmetric are they ?
The asymmetry has become completely thinned out the moment the market began to be competely manipulated, the whole memecoins cycle exposed that, a narrative created ad hoc to give the illusion that there were people making millions out of a few hundreds $ of "investments" while the plain truth ( pumpfun data ) was that after a few months just the 0.01% had made significant gains, the vast majority of people had lost money.
But losing money is not the worst part.
The mental health and emotional damage created by being 24/7 attached to charts, x, tg alpha, discord, doubts, "what ifs pain", fumblings, roundtripping, fomoing, every single emotion of this kind creates damage that stacks up, so it's no surprise that even people that might have made a good amount of money in crypto end up spiritually devastated ( you can ask @Innerdevcrypto if you don't trust me ).
And there is not a magic switch to fix that, money doesn't help.
Binding your energetic state to a token performance, linking your emotional state to a chart ( wake up to a green chart -> good mood , wake up to a -20% wick -> bad mood ) is the worst thing you can do.
The moment you realize that's happening you should immediately step back.
Consider also that most of this market performance is plainly manipulated, so a few guys there are sucking not just money from people, but their spiritual energy.
Guess who they are.
Altcoins have been dying for years, and they sadistically had so much fun in sending them further down 90% in a single 5 mins wick, creating mass suicides, depressions, etc...
So yeah, it's very possible that dead altcoins are gonna be the next toy they will use to pump the market after everyone has been annhilated, reset everything, get back creating fomo, and the emotional slaughter house game starts from scratch.
As I said a few days ago, I've gone mostly stabled and sidelined for the first time in 4 years.
The liquidation they created a few days ago was something big, much bigger than CT pretended it was imo.
And I still think that the broader effects are yet to be seen in our market.
For the first time in 4 years we have a divergence between macro and crypto markets, and I'm pretty sure this is one of the reasons.
"gold gains are gonna rotate to Bitcoin"
"hold steady lads, altszn is incoming"
While I think these 2 statements are technically correct, because M2 liquidity is gonna increase in 2026, this doesn't mean that will happen without pain.
So I prefer watching the things from the sidelines here, for the first time in 4 years, and I must admit that it feels good.
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BREAKING: Vitalik states that @Pumpfun has killed memecoins by turning new retail investors entering the crypto space into degenerate gamblers and with no real-world use, the industry will die fast.
He also stated that @pumpfun has been a net negative to crypto since it was released in 2024 by draining the $crypto ecosystem and turning retail into gamblers not investors.
He also said the platform is setup like a slot machine you keep clicking until your fully drained - pump ultimately wins but retail loses.
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Unpopular opinion, but I’ve long thought that airdrops are a thing of the past.
The amount of time people spend farming airdrops compared to what they actually receive has made the whole process cumbersome.
Plus, there are better ways to reward people long-term than just giving them a lump-sum airdrop.
It's sad that you can't recommend airdrop farming to anyone anymore, you either get rugged by endless delays (Opensea), complete incompetence (MegaETH) or by outright cancellations (Abstract).
It's a path to poverty unless you find something like Variational before the hype (you won't)
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Luca no longer needs Web3, and therefore no longer needs Abstract.
Through the Pudgy Penguins community, he built a real company that now sells plush toys and merch in physical stores.
The question is whether he will thank that community for buying enormous amounts of merch and if so, in what form.
I already treated Abstract as finished a long time ago. That is not the end of the story for me. Abstract was just one product of Igloo. Companies can pick a wrong product.
Because PENGU cannot be airdropped a second time, I see only one serious way left to reward the community: an Igloo IPO, with shares going to supporters.
On XP, they might drop a final badge that locks each person’s tier gold, diamond, obsidian, etc. and use that tier as a multiplier when allocating shares.
I think that would be the best way to reward the community and offset the money people burned on Abstract transactions, games, and marketing campaigns. If they do not do something like that, they will not win people’s trust back.
Otherwise maybe Luca simply does not care about Web3 anymore and will keep going in Web2 and IRL. We’ll see which path he actually chooses.
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Guys I'm sorry that Abstract rugged your farm, but please now my timeline is just about Abstract grief, don't wanna start muting people...
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it’s uncanny how accurate the “crypto conference pullback” is
like everyone is suddenly reminded how cringe everything and everyone is
it happens every time though and we always go up anyways.
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Want to sell @AbstractChain account Diamond tier 1.
4 866 390 XP, 51 badges.
DM for offers. I'll trade it for KFC bucket or Hotdog.
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Okay, Abstract is dead and I guess I’m going down with it.
Day one user. Spent the last two years here and 99.99% of my funds on Abstract.
So if anyone’s looking for a community guy who’s loyal to a fault and somehow manages to ignore every red flag in front of him, my DMs are open.
You don’t find idiots like this every day.
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So did Blast start the domino effect of L2s shutting down?
I swear there are still way too many out there that don’t even make $50 in revenue a day
More to come imo
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Imagine opening a pizza shop called @AbstractChain . The place is amateuristic; the service is terrible, and the pizza tastes horrendous. Hardly anyone in their right mind would order anything there.
You then create a massive rewards campaign. Every order earns points and you go ALL IN on telling customers they are going to want as many of those points as possible. You constantly tease what's coming, boast about the future with very bold statements about rewards, announce partnerships, and tell everyone you're building the future of pizza.
People keep coming back. They eat terrible food they otherwise wouldn't touch. Some even spend ridiculous amounts of money because you've deliberately made collecting points the main reason to consume your products.
And it works. The place is busy. Money pours in. From the outside, it looks like people must really love your pizza. But the demand isn't for the food at all. It's demand you've created through the huge expectations attached to your incentive system. And you keep and keep and keep dangling carrots.
An eternity later, almost 2 years to be exact, the revolutionary pizza never arrives. The promised rewards never come. Customers are furious, and you close the restaurant and go:
"We appreciate our customers but they will get nothing. Thanks for playing and spending millions and millions while we kept dangling carrots. You made a ton of teams including a lot of scammers a whole lot richer."
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