$ASTS: 🚨BERENBERG RESEARCH CATALYST WATCH: EUROPE’S BIV FOUR IN TALKS FOR MSS
What happened: Bloomberg reported on 7 September 2026 that Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Vodafone and Telefónica are in early talks to form a consortium that would bid jointly for the third of the European Union (EU) 2GHz mobile satellite service (MSS) band the Commission has proposed reserving for a European-controlled operator, and offer direct-to-device (D2D) service to rival Starlink. No decisions have been taken. Under the proposal any bidder must be majority controlled by a European business. Of the remaining two-thirds, one is reserved for IRIS² sovereign services, which do not enter service until 2029 and have limited D2D capability, and one is open to international bidders. Current licences expire in 2027.
Why it matters for ASTS: AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) announced on 6 August 2026 that "integration testing [is] now underway across European countries with leading operators Vodafone, Orange, Telefónica, Vodafone Ukraine and Deutsche Telekom," all four of the operators mentioned in the Bloomberg article. A consortium of Europe's four largest carriers is the natural aggregated buyer of ASTS capacity in Europe, and precisely the carrier-aligned model we discussed in our initiation. The European-control rule excludes SpaceX and Amazon Leo from the reserved third, and SpaceX, which opposes the proposal, lacks independent spectrum rights to offer D2D in the EU.
It addresses the structural risk we flagged: In our initiation, the largest risk to the European MSS catalyst was that Satellite Connect Europe's (SatCo) 50/50 ownership between Vodafone and ASTS would disqualify it from spectrum reserved for EU operators. The Bloomberg report suggests that SatCo would, in fact, need to adjust its structure to bid. A carrier consortium holding the spectrum and contracting SatCo and ASTS for the constellation would offer a clean resolution to this concern, and we view it as a high probability outcome. It also matches SatCo's operator-led design, in which operators keep the customer while ASTS supplies the satellites.
Readacross to the US: The structure mirrors the proposed AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile D2D joint venture, with carriers pooling spectrum and standardising the customer experience rather than ceding the market to Starlink. Carriers organising the same way on both sides of the Atlantic is a strong endorsement of the model that ASTS was built to serve.
The opposing view: This is merely a report of early talks and the consortium may not form. A pooled buyer would also concentrate the counterparty and could cap pricing power, as we noted for the US venture. Deutsche Telekom has a D2D agreement with Starlink and a consortium could source from more than one supplier, though as far as we are aware ASTS is the only one testing with all four carriers. The regulation still has to clear the Parliament and Council, so adoption and any auction remain slow-moving, possibly late 2027 or 2028.
Estimates unchanged: We make no changes to our estimates or $92 price target. We would revisit once the consortium is formalised, the selection rules are final and any supply agreement with SatCo and ASTS is disclosed. This could have a material impact on our estimates given that our base case does not include Deutsche Telekom's subscriber base. The news strengthens our view that ASTS could be positioned as the enabler of choice for carrier-led D2D in Europe. We reiterate our Buy rating.
Valuation: We value ASTS on 15x 2030 EBITDA discounted back.