Radu retweeted
Strategy tracking day 635
$MSTR now ranked 169th largest US company by market cap. Jumped 141 places in the last 49 trading days. $70.8 Billion market cap.
14th largest publicly traded equity by volume. Yuge day, $6.9 Billion traded.
Passed toothpaste, Target & Carvana in the crosshairs.
For context $CVNA has $4.6B in net assets (vs $MSTR $59 Billion). Carvana is trading at 16x Price to Book Ratio, $MSTR trading at ~1.4x P/B ratio.
Efficient markets hypothesis 🤷♂️
Strategy tracking day 586
$MSTR now ranked 310th largest US company by market cap. Fell 77 positions in the last 27 trading days.
Back in no man’s land of the top 500 US companies.
For comparison sake:
$VG Venture Global, holds $10.7 Billion in Net assets, generated $4.8 Billion in net income last year.
$VG is 73% leveraged on debt relative to their Property / Plant / Equipment assets
Trading at a 3.1x Price to Book ratio.
—————-
$MSTR holds $56B in assets ($53B BTC / $3B cash)
Has $22B in notional O/S Debt / Credit ($6.7B debt / $15B credit)
If you net out the Debt and Pref notional, $MSTR is holding $34 Billion in net capital.
—————-
Twilio $TWLO has $7.7B in net assets, had net income of $250 million, trading at 4.2x price to book, 326 P/E.
AND 55% of Twilio’s net assets are GOODWILL. ($5.2B / $9.5B)
If you back out Goodwill, Twilio has net assets of $2.5 B ($4.3B assets -$1.7B liabilities).
*Goodwill adjusted Price to Book Ratio of 13.2x*
—————
Jabil $JBL, if you back out goodwill and intangible assets has more liabilities than assets, and $1B of net income.
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what's better than buying the bottom is selling puts at the bottom and converting them into shares
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Whenever I take a step back I just can’t help but struggle with existential questions.
What’s the likelihood of being a conscious / self-aware entity on some random planet at the moment AI appears to be taking off?
It’s a strange feeling to have.
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Radu retweeted
2024年4月23日、メタプラネットは1株あたり約48サトシ。
当時約2,083,334株で1BTC相当。同じ株数を持ち続けた場合、今は1株約2,866サトシ。
つまり約59.7BTC相当。約60倍。株数は併合と分割でほぼ相殺。増えたのは1株あたりのBTC。
これらは、Metaplanet Analyticsのウェブサイトで直接確認できるデータです。
#メタプラネット #ビットコイン 3350 #Metaplanet
2024年4月23日時点のメタプラネットは、1株あたり約48サトシ。
1BTC＝1億サトシなので、当時は約2,083,334株で1BTC相当でした。
今は約2,866サトシ/株、約34,892株。保有量の増加と希薄化の両方を見る指標。
興味深い見方だと思いませんか？
#メタプラネット #ビットコイン 3350 #Metaplanet
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If the metric you judge performance by is Bitcoin per Share, they did do well.
Another common retail misconception is that MetaPlanet did well by increasing bitcoin per share. I have addressed bitcoin per share and bitcoin yield below.
Chanos addressed it last year; most of us ignored him as "just not getting it", and @PunterJeff called him a clown all year while mNAV contracted, and grump old Chanos was actually just right.
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Is it?
The reason people buy stuff is to signal/prove to others and even yourself that you "made it".
Once you cross into zillionaire territory, the signal reverses. The more you consume/display, the worse it looks to everyone.
Pretty straightforward.
There’s something almost comical about Elon being worth an absurd amount of money and still choosing to live next to the fucking job site.
He could be anywhere on Earth.
Instead he’s in an Airstream helping build the infrastructure for superintelligence.
Say whatever you want about the guy, but he is completely fucking obsessed with building.
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How does this keep happening?
I understand buying and giving up 5-10 years later. I don’t understand why you’d give up after 1.5 years.
We’re only down like 40% from all time highs — least volatile it’s ever been in 17 years.
JUST IN: Public company KULR Technology $KULR has sold all of its remaining 764 #Bitcoin for $58.6 million, and now holds a total of 0 BTC.
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“AI must always serve people”
This seems too extreme. Sufficiently advanced AI shouldn’t endanger people.
Saying it should always serve people is like saying children should always serve their parents.
There are two ways AI progress could go very badly and that we must avoid.
First, we could lose control of the future to AI. This is unacceptable; we are unapologetically on Team Humanity, and AI must always serve people. To ensure that, we need ways to ensure that alignment and safety techniques stay ahead of progress in model capabilities.
Second, we could end up in a world with too much concentration of power. If an extraordinarily powerful AI is used by one person or company to impress their worldview onto everyone else, the results could be extremely dystopian.
Avoiding these two threats requires walking a narrow middle path; for example, one country could gain too much power. Another example is one lab ending up with too much power.
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This is analogous to saying everyone can be famous
Attention is limited and X monetizes attention. By definition, it cannot be universal.
no matter what you think of @elonmusk the truth is that X today is the closest thing we have to UBI for millions of people already and that says more about what the future of work is going to look like
Literally pay attention
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The only way out is through regulation and international cooperation.
The world used to be more cooperative on important issues.
We had the Paris Agreement for climate change for example so we wouldn't blindly keep racing to our demise.
I don’t think we’re going to meaningfully slow AI development.
Why would any company slow down without U.S. government regulation?
Why would the U.S. government slow down if China keeps accelerating?
And even if China agreed to slow down, how could we reliably verify compliance?
Every participant is incentivized to keep pushing forward.
AI is just another train with no brakes.
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The right answer is having a comprehensive regulatory framework for frontier AI development.
Aircraft manufacturers and operators for example are not nationalized, yet they are not free to simply operate under market constraints.
FAA imposes heavy regulations for good reason.
Give Dario, Elon, and Altman two choices:
1. Nationalize all three companies
2. No constraints on any of them
Reject the concept of lifting up the ladder behind them, but if they truly believe what they say, their response will be simple.
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