$BTC | $MSTR | $MPJPY 3350 piped.video/@UncleDividends ビットコイン | メタプラネット| Daily Learning 独立系アナリスト。どの企業にも属していません 私のアドバイスなんて聞かないでください ただの年寄りのおじさんですから

🚨メタプラネット・コミュニティの皆さまへ。 このたび、「Global Metaplanet Trading Hours Market Tracker」を公開したことをご報告いたします!シェア・リポストお願いします!🔁 🌏本トラッカーが、メタプラネットのグローバルな存在感を把握・追跡するうえで、皆さまのお役に立てれば幸いです。 🛠️今後は、定期的にアップデートや新機能の追加を行いながら、このトラッカーを運営していく予定です。 ご要望や「次のバージョンで追加してほしい機能」がありましたら、ぜひコメント欄にお書きいただくか、プライベートメッセージでお知らせください。 その後、どの機能を優先するかを決めるための公開投票も実施する予定です。 🙏また、本トラッカーをオンラインで公開するにあたり、ご協力いただいた MetaplanetDojo @thisisjake_jp さんには、心より感謝申し上げます。 このアップデートとともに 2026 年をスタートできることを大変うれしく思っています。 そして、コミュニティのために本プロジェクトを開発するにあたり、これまで継続して応援と励ましをくださった皆さまに、改めて感謝いたします。2026年も頑張っていきましょう🧡 ご自身のコミュニティに自由に共有してください。誰でも無料でご利用いただけます。 #メタプラネット、月へ!🚀🌕 $MPJPY $MTPLF
どうやら2026年に間に合うように完成できそうだ! メタプラネット グローバル取引時間トラッカー
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Uncle Dividends (配当おじさん) retweeted
Superplanet has a date! Super League filed its definitive proxy today The vote on the Metaplanet transaction is set for 16 October 2026, 10:00 a.m. Pacific, held virtually Great news! Great team! @gerovich @DylanLeClair
Made with AI
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Really sharp analysis by Zoro. He has been staying on top monitoring the movements on SUPERPLANET. This is going to be a very exciting time for Metaplanet. 🎉🚀
This is a massive win for MetaPlanet and a major operational surprise. Moving directly from the August 18 ⁠PRE 14A⁠ to ⁠DEF 14A⁠ filed on Friday, September 25 without an intermediate public ⁠PRER 14A⁠ means the transaction cleared SEC staff review completely clean. The shareholder vote is officially locked in for October 16, accelerating the entire closing timeline by probably 2 months ahead of management’s expectations. Truly impressive execution! @gerovich @DylanLeClair Now instead of a Q4 close, I am expecting this deal to close by the end of October with the ticker changes to $SUPA. Next steps: 1. $SUPA common ATM (small scale) starting November 2. $SUPA preferred private distribution through MetaPlanet Securities to Japan investors by end of Q4 3. $SUPA US preferred public listing by end of Q4 Now, it’s time for a re-rate on Monday! #Metaplanet $3350 $MPJPY
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🚨THIS IS INSANE Japan's 30-year bond yield just hit 4.223%, its highest level ever in history. Japan is now paying over 4% to borrow for 30 years - a historic reversal from decades of ultra low rates.
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Daily Dividends here we go!!!! I love it! 🎉🚀
Strategy is proposing daily dividends on $STRF, $STRC, $STRK, and $STRD, accruing every calendar day, including weekends and holidays, and paid the next business day, with economics unchanged. The proposed changes aim to support price stability, liquidity, and demand.
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Uncle Dividends (配当おじさん) retweeted
CAPITAL GAINS PAY THE YIELD @tjando92 points me out that capital gains pay the yield I agree, appreciation is the source but It isn't the mechanism, and that's where the cost hides An unrealized gain isn't cash. To fund a cash obligation with it, you have to monetize it: - Sell coins - Issue stock - Or borrow Take the simplest case Sell coins to pay the coupon, no operating income Measure what the common actually owns: coins per share, after converting the preferred's dollar claim into coins at the prevailing bitcoin price Then bitcoin has to compound at roughly the coupon just for the common to stand still. How close to the coupon depends on how often the dividend is paid On a 13% coupon: 13.0% if it's paid once a year in arrears, 13.8% monthly, 13.88% if it's paid every business day That spread is the whole of the timing argument, and it collapses fast Paid once a year, the gap between paying at the start of each period and the end of it is 1.94 percentage points, r/(1−r) against r Monthly it's 0.16. Every business day, 0.008. Past weekly the convention stops mattering and the hurdle is simply e^r − 1 So it's an identity of a particular model rather than a universal law, but the faster an issuer pays, the less room that model leaves you What isn't in the equation at all: treasury size, coin count, time horizon. They cancel out. Only the coupon and the payment schedule survive The mechanics are the interesting part Each period you burn coins to pay, and the only thing working for you is that a fixed dollar claim shrinks in coin terms as price rises. Break-even is where those two exactly offset Both live instruments have been climbing that curve STRC went from one payment a month to two in August; same monthly total, two dates, which puts its 12% at 12.7% SATA pays a cash dividend every business day, the first US-listed security to do so, which puts it at the continuous limit: its 13% needs 13.9% Note the direction. Paying more often, in arrears, moves the hurdle up rather than down, because the cash leaves earlier. It is a rounding error at these frequencies, but it isn't free Both are variable rates managed around par, and because both frameworks take the trading level as an input, a weak price can lead to a higher rate. When that happens, the hurdle rises precisely when it is hardest to clear Funding it by issuing more preferred at par doesn't escape it either, because the claim compounds at the coupon At SATA's frequency the two stop being different questions: selling coins and issuing more preferred break even at the same 13.88%. They only look like different problems if you assume a single annual payment made in advance Two ways under the line. Trade at a premium and issue stock At Strive's 1.32x the modelled hurdle falls to about 6.7% over twenty years (6.1% at ten, 7.1% at thirty) That's the issuance premium doing the work, not an assumption that bitcoin appreciates faster and a premium is the first thing to go in a drawdown Metaplanet's modelled $300M at 14% is a $42M annual bill. BIG is the cash premium it collects selling bitcoin put options, and it has run at 2.24% of stack value over the last 12 months, about $81M at today's price. With bitcoin completely flat, that's +470 coins in year one, and net common coins up about 30% over 20 years. In that same twenty-year model, bitcoin can fall about 4.2%/yr before the structure stops accreting. Take the weakest of those four quarters annualised instead and it is still about -1.1%/yr That's the argument. Not that appreciation doesn't pay the yield. That leaning on it alone sets a hurdle at or just above the coupon, 13.9% a year for SATA as it stands today, for as long as that coupon is in place, and you don't get to choose whether you clear it
Replying to @metaplanero
Bitcoin's capital gains pay the yield ultimately. That's openly the business model. You have fundamentally failed to grasp it.
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Uncle Dividends (配当おじさん) retweeted
When @phongle was asked why Strategy didn't just raise the $STRC dividend to help it reach par, he noted it wasn't necessary and that buybacks were a much better tool. More importantly, he highlighted that a higher dividend is a direct drag on common equity. That really underscores the massive structural advantage Metaplanet has in this space: operating with roughly half the cost of capital of its US peers over the long term, COMPOUNDED. While US peers are stuck paying 12%–13% coupons, Metaplanet’s ~6% $SUPA Uridashi preferred private distribution and ~6% MARS listing on the TSE will be running hot soon. Reference: Strategy CEO Phong Le Explains the STRC Recovery & Strategy's Future in Bitcoin: piped.video/B319sulgWXM?si=gtDW…
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This morning’s lvl3 Data for Metaplanet from Moomoo
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Uncle Dividends (配当おじさん) retweeted
1/ Every bitcoin treasury preferred has the same problem The dividend is cash. Bitcoin is not So where does the money actually come from? For the two that exist today, their own filings answer it... The business doesn't cover the bill 👇
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Wow this is a must have for dividend enthusiasts no? 😎
Digital Credit ETF just dropped. Starting with two variable rate securities, so far.
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Uncle Dividends (配当おじさん) retweeted
BTC 84,400ドル メタプラ243円(mNAV 0.74)時点 0.75 → 246円 0.80 → 262円 0.85 → 279円 0.90 → 295円 0.95 → 312円 1.00 → 328円 1.05 → 344円
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Uncle Dividends (配当おじさん) retweeted
Time to play catch up in Tokyo $MTPLF $MPJPY
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I just discovered this bitcoin treasury model which has quite a comprehensive selection of parameters for customization. I love it! It's currently available for $MSTR and $ASST , I hope Mocha adds one for Metaplanet in the future. Thank you Mocha. 😍
As I alluded to earlier today, I've spent the last two days working on an exciting feature that captures an important nuance in Bitcoin treasury management. The idea is simple. Every Bitcoin treasury company runs some amount of amplification (leverage) — primarily preferred stock or convertible debt — against its BTC. More amplification means more BTC per share on the way up. It also means the common equity gets wiped out faster on the way down. Until now, the Monster Model let you set a constant amplification target and watch what happened as the dynamic treasury management engine attempted to steer either company towards its target under the conditions set by your other parameters (BTC projection path, $STRC / $SATA growth path, USD management, etc.). But that didn't prevent the modeled company from drifting towards a balance sheet whose equity is wiped out in a crash. Now you can pick a share price you want $MSTR or $ASST to survive down to, and the model solves for the most amplification the company could carry if Bitcoin fell and mNAV collapsed. I call it the defensive amplification target, and it's now fully integrated into the dynamic treasury engine. If the system can run nominally, it does; but if the balance sheet gets stressed according to the parameters you specify, it sounds the alarm and begins taking decisive action. The feature calls for you to give it three things: (1) a share price to defend; (2) an mNAV to assume in the crash; and (3) how far Bitcoin might fall (as a fraction of its power law trend). The model works backward to the maximum liability load that still clears your defensive price, converts that to an implied amplification target, and pulls the company's target amplification down to that implied target whenever your own constant target would be higher. The new feature is off by default, so if you want to experiment with it, you'll need to toggle its checkbox, which you can find in the "Defensive target" fieldset in the Amplification section of the parameter pane. Two things I learned while building it that I didn't expect. → The first: capping the target isn't enough. The model doesn't hold amplification at the target — it accepts anything inside a tolerance band around the target, and only acts decisively to delever when amplification exceeds that band. So the target can read as being exactly where you set it while actual amplification sits at the band's upper edge, above your limit. The defense mechanism has to bind the upper edge, not the center; otherwise the width of the band is amplification you never authorized. At the sensitivities involved, a tolerance of 0.01 (one percentage point) in amplification ratio is worth about a dollar of share price — so your $80 floor quietly becomes a $79 floor. → The second: which dollars count. The model tracks "effective USD" — an internal metric inspired by the extension of the model (which was originally @Strategy-only) to @Strive. The Monster Model defines effective USD as all USD assets plus a user-specified haircut on any third-party perpetual preferreds the company holds. That's fine for normal reporting. But as we saw this summer, perpetual preferred equities are least saleable exactly when the common equity is under the most stress, which is the scenario you're trying to defend against. So the defensive calculation uses pure USD while everything else keeps the effective figure. Two different questions, two different answers. (If you don't like the idea of valuing PPE above $0 even during normal operation, feel free to change that parameter; it's called "Fraction PPE counted in Effective USD" and can be found in Strive's "USD and PPE Assets" section in the parameter pane.) If I'm being totally honest, this new feature is just absolutely sick. Watching the dynamic treasury management logic simultaneously dial back on preferred issuance while ramping up use of the common equity ATM to delever so that it can defend your chosen share price at your chosen power law level is an almost religious experience. This is reflexivity in motion, and highlights the power of modeling treasury companies (and Bitcoin itself) with a non-linear dynamical system. Also shipped: → A break-even mNAV basis toggle. Break-even mNAV marks where issuing common stops being accretive — but "accretive" has two meanings. Gross BTC per share is the one BTC Yield measures, and it ignores liabilities entirely. Net BTC per share counts only what's left after senior claims. Those give different answers, and the model was silently picking one based on which mNAV variant you were looking at. Now the user gets to choose, and the choice is always explicit. This is what I called a semantic bugfix in my earlier post from this morning. → As for the technical bugfix I alluded to — that turned out to be a false alarm stemming from Opus's misunderstanding of some of the nuances of the model's mNAV calculations. Once it understood, the issue became clearer, and the LLM agreed that there was only ever a semantic ambiguity. → The power law reference curves moved from +/- 40% to +/- 50% of trend, which is a more honest benchmark after the drawdown we just lived through. → And a batch of quieter fixes: terminology standardized across the parameter and series documentation, so "selected liabilities" and "USD assets" mean one thing each instead of three. The new changes are live at monstermodels.live. Please let me know if you encounter any issues, and as always, thank you for your support. 🧡 $MSTR $ASST $STRC $SATA $BTC #Bitcoin
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Just activated my Lvl3 order book for Metaplanet 3350. Let me know if you find this helpful I can share it daily. #Metaplanet #メタプラネット 3350
Opening summary data for Metaplanet 3350.
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Opening summary data for Metaplanet 3350.
シルバーウィークの連休明け、お帰りなさい。
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シルバーウィークの連休明け、お帰りなさい。
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ストラテジーCEOフォン・リー氏が語る、STRCの回復、デジタル・クレジット、そして今後の展望 ストラテジーのCEO、フォン・リー氏がナタリー・ブルネル氏のポッドキャスト「Coin Stories」に出演した。STRCにとって厳しかった夏、そこから得た教訓、そして世界最大の企業ビットコイン・トレジャリーの今後について幅広く語った。 STRCに何が起きたのか インタビューの大半は、ストラテジーの主力優先株STRCについてだった。STRCは5月下旬から6月にかけて、額面の100ドルから約75ドルまで下落した。リー氏によれば、問題はバランスシートではなかった。約120億ドルのSTRCに対し、同社は約500億ドル相当のビットコインを保有していたからだ。問題はレバレッジだった。低ボラティリティで12%の利回りが得られることから、投資家がビットコインを担保に約6%で借り入れ、その利ざやを狙う動きが広がった。ビットコインが下落すると、こうした投資家はSTRCの売却を迫られた。ある大株主はこれを「ミンスキー効果」と表現した。リー氏も、これほどのレバレッジが積み上がることは想定していなかったと認めた。 対応策:現金、自社買い、そして忍耐 ストラテジーは7月に新たな資本フレームワークを発表し、STRCはその後約98〜99ドルまで回復した。フレームワークの柱は次の3点である。 🔹米ドル準備金の確保(現在約51億ドル、配当約3年分) 🔹STRCおよびMSTRの自社買い枠の設定 🔹必要に応じたビットコイン売却の容認 米ドル準備金の用途は、優先株の配当と転換社債の利払いに限られる。自社買いには別枠の現金を充てる。約67億ドルの転換社債に対し現金は約64億ドルあり、実質的なネット・レバレッジはほぼゼロだとリー氏は述べた。 リー氏は、配当の引き上げは解決策にならないと明言した。利率を11%から12%に上げても価格はほとんど動かず、利率を上げれば現金が流出するだけだ。一方、自社買いは価格を押し上げると同時に配当負担も減らす。また、市場が米ドル準備金をここまで重視したことには少し驚いたという。ビットコイン支持者は同社が保有する84万5,000BTCを裏付けとして十分と考えるが、機関投資家は現金を求めている。 長期的には、機関投資家の保有比率を高めたい考えだ。機関投資家はレバレッジを使う可能性も、下落局面で売る可能性も低いからである。個人と機関の保有比率は、すでに約80対20から70対30へと変化した。リー氏は、STRCが危機を乗り越えたことで、まさにこうした投資家からの信頼が高まると主張した。 プラットフォームとしてのデジタル・クレジット リー氏は、ストライブのSATAをはじめとする競合のデジタル・クレジット商品や、メタプラネット、スマーター・ウェブ、ビットマインの同様の動きを歓迎した。デジタル・クレジット市場は約150億ドルにすぎず、300兆ドル規模の世界の信用市場を相手にしている以上、全員に十分な余地があるという見方だ。最も意外だったのは、STRCがプラットフォームになったことだという。利回り付きステーブルコイン、レバレッジを効かせた高利回り商品、トークン化商品などがSTRCの上に構築されている。リー氏はこれを、開発者がどのモバイルOS上で開発するかを選ぶことになぞらえた。開発者は規模、流動性、信頼性が最も高いものを選ぶ。 MSTR株主、同業他社、そして弱気相場 含み損を抱える普通株主に対しては、利害が一致していることを強調した。リー氏自身の報酬の95%は株価に連動している。MSTRは強気相場でビットコインを上回るよう設計されており、3年以上の保有期間が必要だという。 メタプラネットの報酬を巡る論争については、同社経営陣への敬意を示したうえで、役員報酬は株式数ではなく株価パフォーマンスに連動すべきだと述べた。 ビットコインを売却したり事業を畳んだりするトレジャリー企業が相次いでいることについては、自然な淘汰だとした。米国には約25社のトレジャリー企業があるが、勝ち残るのは2〜3社だろうと見ている。 リー氏は今回の弱気相場を2022年と対比した。2022年は、上場企業がそもそもビットコインを保有すべきかが問われた。今回は、ビットコインの上に構築した商品が機能するかが試され、それは証明されたと考えている。 ロードマップと大局観 今後の方針はシンプルだ。STRCを額面に戻し、ボラティリティを低く抑え、慎重に規模を拡大する。新たな優先株の計画はない。また、STRF、STRK、STRDはまだ強気相場を経験しておらず、現在は割安だと述べた。 最後にリー氏は、ストラテジーを「デジタル資本のJPモルガン」にするという目標を説明した。銀行になるという意味ではない。ビットコイン資本市場の中心に立ち、他社が土台とする商品を生み出し、流通させるという意味である。さらに、ビットコインは伝統的金融に取って代わるのではなく、それを改善するものだと主張した。AIについても、ビットコインと同じくオープンで分散型の方向へ向かうべきだと語った。 $MSTR $STRC #Digitalcredit
Don’t miss my new interview with Strategy CEO @PhongLe. We discuss STRC’s recovery, the outlook for MSTR shareholders, how Strategy is navigating volatility, and its ambition to be the JPMorgan of digital capital. Watch our full conversation. TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Trailer 1:03 AI Needs a Satoshi Nakamoto 8:40 STRC’s Recovery: Buybacks or Higher Dividends? 11:36 What Caused STRC’s Selloff? 14:36 Strategy’s Plan to Restore Stability 20:05 How Strategy’s Cash Reserves Work 22:46 New Financial Products Built on STRC 27:02 Can Bitcoin and Wall Street Coexist? 34:35 MSTR Shareholders and Executive Compensation 40:41 Strategy’s Plans for STRC and Digital Credit 46:21 Why Strategy Wants to Be the JPMorgan of Digital Capital
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I love the name More! Congrats to SWC get more bitcoin gogogo!
"We want to deliver MORE Bitcoin per share, MORE growth. We want to be bigger, MORE acquisitions." Smarter Web CEO, Andrew Webley (@asjwebley), speaking at May’s Bitcoin Treasuries Unconference about wanting MORE for the business going forward. LSE: #SWC | OTCQB: $TSWCF | FRA: $3M8
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Bitcoin saying bye guys.. see you later. bitcoin:native
JUST IN: Bitcoin reclaims $87,000
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Uncle Dividends (配当おじさん) retweeted
Don’t bet against Metaplanet. You need 3 lenses at once: how business gets done in Asia (especially Japan), Bitcoin, and Western capital markets. Miss one and the stock looks dumb. One tell: Japan wants STRC-like high-yield preferreds more than the West does. Metaplanet is built for that demand
Overseas investors dumping Metaplanet on recent management comp issues made the classic mistake of viewing a Tokyo-listed asset through a standard Western lens. To foreign investors, it might not look like good corporate governance. To domestic Japanese capital, Metaplanet stock is an economic life raft. Japan’s debt-to-GDP is above 260%. The BoJ is boxed in, real yields are deeply negative, and holding cash in yen guarantees steady purchasing power destruction. Here is Metaplanet's structural moat: - Regulatory Monopoly: Zero spot ETFs approved (earliest in 2028), no liquid domestic alternatives. Even MSTR cannot crack this market due to regulatory hurdles, language barriers, and domestic brokerage integration etc. - Execution Moat: An insurmountable 43,000 BTC head start backed by an 8-quarter track record of income generation with imminent US & Japan prefs. The ONLY multi-jurisdiction treasury company in the world. The ONLY treasury company owns a Type I securities subsidiary. - The Capital Arbitrage: Japan is the world's second-largest developed capital market, sitting on trillions of yen in 0% bank deposits starving for yield. While US peers have to offer punitive 12%+ coupons to compete for Wall Street credit, Metaplanet can tap domestic Japanese liquidity at an ultra-low 5%–6% cost of capital. - The Tax Shield: Spot Bitcoin in Japan is taxed as miscellaneous income up to 55%. Holding Metaplanet stocks is taxed at 20% (and 0% inside a tax-free NISA account). There is literally no real competitor in sight that can replicate this setup in Japan. There is no "Japanese SATA vs STRC" scenario. Western capital traded the governance noise and panic-sold at 0.8x mNAV. Domestic capital is buying the only regulated escape hatch from sovereign debasement. Do you really believe a quasi-monopoly in Japan can stay at sub 1x mNAV for long? Thinking about a few generational companies selling at screaming price in 2022 - $APP, $PLTR, $RKLB, you have another one here. #Metaplanet $3350 $MPJPY $DN3
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In some parts of Asia there is a saying, "Good things no cheap, cheap things no good" 😄
Yikes. A BTCTC below 1x mNAV is often a bargain, but this is not one of those times $DDC.
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