After listening to Dr. Pratosh's talk, I started thinking about how often we underestimate human behaviour when predicting the impact of technology.
Let us look at some unexpected outcomes of technologies from previous decades.
1. What happened to watches when mobile phones came?
2. Music is almost free on the internet. Why do people still go to concerts?
3. What happened to theatres when TV and then streaming services came?
4. A PC and a speaker can play a prayer. Why do people still go to temples and want a human to recite it? Even in a temple, you don't need AI to replace the priest. A speaker can already do it.
5. When COVID made WFH the norm, there were predictions that offices would become unnecessary and commercial real estate would collapse. Commercial real estate was certainly affected, but offices didn't disappear. Many companies later brought people back to the office.
The problem with many technology / human behaviour predictions is that we reduce human behaviour to functional utility. But people value much more than the function itself.
People don't consume only for utility. They consume for status, identity, belonging, experience and, of course, FOMO.
People don't go to university only for knowledge. They go there for the status of the institution, the people they meet, the network and the experience.
The same is true of brands. If everything was based on utility, a ₹1 lakh luxury watch shouldn't have more value than a ₹1,000 watch that tells the same time. But humans don't make choices like that.
We tend to make our predictions rationally, but human behaviour doesn't always follow the same logic.
This is why I am not sure we can predict what will happen to humans when AI takes over intellectual work simply by looking at what AI can replace.
AI may make knowledge and code abundant. It may make many existing jobs unnecessary.
But will human curiosity, restlessness, status seeking, peer pressure and the desire for experiences go away?
I believe we are better at adapting to the future than predicting it.
Dr. Pratosh at IISc Bengaluru tells his students that rapid advances in AI are commoditizing intellectual labour.
He raises an unsettling question: if companies stop recruiting on campus in the next 5–10 years—even at India’s top universities—what will the purpose of a university education be ?
A must watch video for everyone in tech