I've been compiling #bitcoin price predictions made by a number of the accounts I follow who I give 'weight' to their opinion. Here is my current analysis. Overall average of their predictions at the end of the tweet series: (ps please let me know of others I've missed) 👇

If you are wondering what state of the fiat experiment we are at, it's the one where they are saying the quiet part out-loudly and proudly in a last ditch effort to normalize the only escape route the government is willing to take.

I’m going to be brutally honest here. A part of me didn’t want to publish any of this. I’ve been asked repeatedly to use some of this sentiment data to trade, and I’ve often urged people not to. I’m a long-term HODLer myself, and I've seen how painful it can be to try to time your Bitcoin buys. But I find myself in an interesting position. Because some of the sentiment data I’ve been sitting on has been extremely high-signal. Historically, buying during low readings has produced stronger returns than buying during high readings. That’s a big claim. So it deserves scrutiny. But the longer I’ve spent with this data, the more confident I've become that I’m sitting on something valuable. So today I’m going to share the strongest (though slightly counterintuitive) signal I’ve found so far. Not greed. Not fear. Desire. How badly the crowd WANTS Bitcoin to pay off. I’ve tracked tons of different emotions in Bitcoiners’ language, using data spanning most of the past decade. I've learned a lot and seen many positive correlations, but this one stood out above all others. I’ve talked about desire before. But today, I want to show you what Bitcoin’s returns looked like after the highest and lowest readings historically, and why that matters for Bitcoin today. sentimentsully.substack.com/…

From @jvisserlabs newsletter today. Regarding AI Slop, great point IMO. Maybe AI slop silver (or slop?) lining is that it will make us more intolerant of all sorts of slop(py) thinking and writing and ideas. "Mediocrity has a long human history. We have produced generic articles, consensus research, repetitive presentations, corporate jargon, forgettable entertainment, pointless meetings and recycled opinions forever. We simply produced them more slowly, at considerably greater expense, and often with impressive credentials attached. I have oftened described how boring I found school. Maybe the problem was never that I couldn’t pay attention. Maybe I just had a low tolerance for human slop."

NEW: $15 trillion BlackRock says AI agents may choose to save in #Bitcoin for "long-term value preservation" 👀 "These findings ... point to a potential AI-native monetary architecture in which stablecoins serve as transactional money and bitcoin as a store of value." 👏

Pretty incredible datapoint

Bitter Muppets at it again.

I don't know how old this tweet is. Someone had it posted in my men's groups, but dang I've never seen a more TRUE & SPOT ON TWEET ever! Alex is obviously on another level & most people I know have learned things from him. Apply this wisdom!!! Bet on yourself! Outwork everyone & watch them call you lucky :)

The US dollar is National Fiat Currency with an Infinite supply. #Bitcoin is International Energy Money with a Fixed supply. -------- Understanding and applying the differences is world-changing.

Something orange this way comes. - - - BTW this is a teaser. Teaser for what? You'll find out come Halloween 🎃

This is just the side effects from repeated policy failures on so many levels. Zero reason that a functioning society should allow this dude to be able to do shit like this for literal years.

RT @carlabitcoin: Stumbled across our 2022 highlight reel on YouTube and forget how completely unhinged our old videos were 💀 creating cont…

Gold only has to lose 10% of it's market value to Bitcoin for Bitcoin to go absolutely bonkers.

For 45 years interest rates steadily declined as global bond markets believed in twin pillars of late 20th century capitalism: 1. Central banks have inflation under control 2. Moore's law and the attendant productivity boom will last forever Nation states took advantage of this conceit by ballooning their national debts with very little to show for it beyond ineffective welfare programs and completely needless wars. Now the time of reckoning has come. Even at rock bottom interest rates interest on the US debt (as an example) is already a meaningful chunk of the US budget (equivalent to all defense spending). As interest rates rise and more debt needs to be rolled, along with brand new issuance, the cost of borrowing is going to skyrocket for nations. This then flows on to all other debt markets such as the housing market which further suffocates national economies. Right now governments are trying to shuffle the deck and pretend a major bond crisis isn't on their shores, but this can only last so long. Exacerbating all of this is the global political climate shifting dangerously toward more socialistic policies across the West. The only potential savior to this looming crisis is an enormous and imminent productivity boom from AI. This cannot be ruled out, but even if productivity is improving rapidly in bits (such as coding) it will flow into physical industries much more slowly. It is unlikely to save us from the bond crisis to come. Whatever happens, we're likely in for a period of massive currency uncertainty and volatility. Exactly what Bitcoin was made for.

If I had to give the simplest, most universal diet plan: 1. Beef (center of the diet) 2. Potatoes (peeled, well-cooked) 3. Fruit (seasonal, local, organic)

Sold bitcoin at 109k and brags. Hasn't (and won't) buy back. Bitcoin currently at 85k. Many such sideliners will help push bitcoin to enormous new highs. Thank you for your service.

Correct, roughly 90% of SpaceX’s revenue this year will be commercial. In Q4, our government revenue will be less than 5%! Federal expenditures are about 25% of the economy, so even if you sold pencils, you’d expect to sell about a quarter of your pencils to the government. This means SpaceX is FAR MORE commercial relative to the average company in America. Gibney is both a liar AND an idiot. Absolute scum of the Earth.

I continue to like both gold and Bitcoin, but especially Bitcoin looks interesting right now. For one we broke through resistance at $80k, targeting $100k. 🧵(1/2)

The World Isn’t Ready to Wean Itself Off QE. The global debt problem, and rising rates across the West, reflect a simple fact: the world cannot wean itself off quantitative easing right now. Ending QE may be the goal, but central bankers seem to be missing the nuance: withdrawing support from bond markets while debt and borrowing needs remain so high can push yields up sharply. Yes, Central Bankers are the problem once again. Before the Federal Reserve claims that America’s AI investment boom has lifted the neutral rate of interest, it should answer a more basic question: why are long-term borrowing costs rising across economies with no comparable AI capex boom? For more than a decade, central banks suppressed bond yields by buying trillions of dollars of government debt and removing duration risk from private markets. Now they are shrinking their balance sheets, allowing bonds to mature and, in some cases, actively selling holdings. Private investors must absorb a vastly larger supply of duration just as governments are issuing more debt. That growing supply puts downward pressure on bond prices and because bond prices and yields move in opposite directions, upward pressure on yields. This is a global term-premium shock. Japan, Britain, Germany, France, Canada and Australia are all dealing with the same forces: persistent fiscal deficits, expanding sovereign-debt supply, quantitative tightening, defence spending, energy security, industrial policy and reduced central-bank demand for long bonds. They do not share America’s hyperscaler-driven data-centre boom. Yet their yields are rising too. AI may add marginally to demand for capital. It does not explain a broad global repricing of sovereign debt. History offers a warning against confusing capex with a durable increase in the neutral rate. Japan’s 1980s investment boom produced immense corporate expansion, property development and industrial capacity. The ultimate result was not a permanently higher r*, but excess capital, falling returns, deflation and decades of near-zero rates. China repeated the lesson at greater scale. It built cities, ports, factories, power systems and housing on an unprecedented scale. Debt surged. But as the return on incremental property and infrastructure investment declined, so did the country’s neutral rate. The lesson is elementary: investment spending is not synonymous with productive investment. A data-centre arms race can raise demand for chips, electricity, construction labour and financing while it lasts. It can also create duplicated capacity, rapid depreciation and weak returns. The neutral rate rises only when the marginal product of capital rises sustainably across the whole economy. Until that is demonstrated, AI capex is an observable boom. A higher neutral rate is an assumption. Sometimes an apple is just an apple: with global debt already excessive, the world needs quantitative easing. I’m sorry. The more immediate explanation for higher global yields is simpler: governments are borrowing heavily while central banks collectively retreat from the bond market. Sometimes an Apple is just an Apple.

Little known fact: BTC has NEVER been beaten by stocks over a 4 year investment duration. Even if you bought the top. In fact, at 42% CAGR, BTC beats the undisputed champion of hedge funds, Renaissance Technologies, who delivered 39% to their investors.