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够早的怕起不来😅起床了可以来听我们聊聊二级
Can broad altcoin rallies return? Where's value actually building?
The Next Cycle: Investing in a Changed Market with @Arthur0x (@DeFianceCapital), @Mapleleafcap (@FoliusVentures), @zaheerebtikar (@Plasma) and @avifelman.
Wed 7 Oct · 9:15 AM · MEXC Stage
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$HYPE won...?
Binance EN: Binance Will List Hyperliquid (HYPE) with Seed Tag Applied
币安重要公告: 币安将上线 Hyperliquid (HYPE) 并打上种子标签
HYPE MarketCap: 23.4B
(Auto match could be wrong, 自动匹配可能不准确)
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Just picked up a book vs reading AI slop this past whole month
my god real human writing reads so fucking good, it never felt this discernible before
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Jason Kam retweeted
绝大多数上一代互联网生意基本都有first mover advantage 因为有network effect 且边际成本接近零; 但是LLM的生意可能是个later mover advantage, 虽然first mover 可能会有economic of scale 但是边际成本巨大且很有可能是凸性的现在看来.. 这个和过去有economic of scale的颠覆性创新生意又不同 (电力/汽车)
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idk man think Doubao by Bytedance and whatever Tencent come up with are as well positioned as Muse is when it comes to distribution altho they are behind af on the models front
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Revitalizing the pitch aggregating aspect of @bidclubai w/ update coming soon (thx to Jev)
CT, who consistently puts out good long-form pitch content on this site (stock & token) that we should track? I have a list of 60+ atm but open to a lot more. If you have lists as well would love to see it.
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Open to other suggestions. A couple of shows I listen to didn’t make the cut — too much high-level chatter / VC-oriented / promotional / noisy. Looking for more substantive single-name pitches / liquid ideas.
Also open to feature ideas.
GM. With the next crypto bull market upon us, BidClub now tracks five more shows alongside @1000xPod:
- @theempirepod
- @0xSteadyLads
- @Delphi_Digital
- @goodgamepodxyz
- @MarketBubble
Six months backfilled. 89 episodes now live. New episodes added automatically every hour.
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HERE'S ANTHROPIC NET ARR: Anthropic Gross ARR reported to be $65B in July '26 and at $10B net new ARR / month you get $85B Q3'26 and $115B Q4'26.
If you remove:
- Meta ($5B ARR)
- Payout to AWS Bedrock / GCP (20-25% API volume assume 20% take rate
- 2% of all API volume is Chinese labd distilling.
You get to:
$62B Net ARR Q3'26
$82B Net ARR Q4'26.
At 20x EV/ARR that implies $1.3T Q3'26 numbers and $1.6T Q4'26.
Makes the pre-IPO price of $1.4T on @prestocks make sense.
Anthropic pre-IPO gamesmanship post. Pure speculation but sharing as curious for thoughts.
Anthropic shifted from gross to net ARR accounting and stripped out both Meta and Chinese distillation from their $65 billion ARR number. Meta speculated to be over $5 billion in ARR so taking them out means they can easily weather it when Meta turns them off shortly after being public, which is widely expected. Also decreases the odds of Meta turning them off, watermelon quality dependent. All smart.
Then release Fable 5.1 so OpenAI feels confident releasing Astra. Vibes here on Astra are really good btw. I think that Astra was probably better than Anthropic was expecting.
Now there are whispers that Anthropic has solved Navier-Stokes, which would be super impressive.
Anthropic probably releases Fable 5.2, which should be better than Astra unless something is awry, sometime before the IPO. Likely also planning on showing a significant reacceleration in ARR in September which will of course leak to the press.
Grok 4.7, Meta’s Watermelon and ChatGPT 6.1 all likely coming in the next 6 weeks as well. All those labs are confident about their roadmaps in a way I have not seen in the last 18 months. And we will see about Gemini 4. Competitors get a vote in all these plans.
Grok Bot feels like the best agentic harness yet for enterprise use cases and Instinct is a promising agentic harness for consumer use cases. Should see variations of both from competitors soon. Grok Bot remains transformational for my use cases.
And all this is happening into a continued acceleration in overall AI demand.
Wild times.
As an aside, I think Krishna might turn out to be an exceptional CFO. His former Blackstone colleagues speak super highly of him. Going to be important as communicating clearly to Wall Street if they decide to shift their compute from inference to training will be difficult to digest the first time. Probably worth studying Amazon’s invest and then “check-in” margin strategy from 2010 through maybe 2016, which investors eventually understood.
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So hmm what's that enshrined $HOOD memecoin that's gonna buy HOOD DAT style and do other cool stuff with tokenized stocks and blessed by all the KOLs and mgmt?
$HOOD is undervalued given the potential its chain is showing and wall street is still sleeping on it.
ETH & SOL annualized 1-3 Bn of revenue at their peak while Base did 50-100 mm. HOOD just did a $2 mm day. Assuming DAU & TVL momentum continues it has a chance of annualizing at 300-500 mm (especially if privates are introduced + if memecoins actually start moving stock prices + real projects onboard + HOOD itself forking fomo).
$HOOD's FY26 estimate is ~5.2 Bn topline and ~1.9 Bn in profit. Given the fee is almost 70-80% incremental margins (and let's skip annualization) a 15-25% accretion to EPS is pretty juicy. Not that HOOD trades on PE multiple but don't think wallstreet is baking in perp ramp / crypto coming back either.
This name and $HYPE remain the best beta one can buy as blockchain continues on its multi-decade advance.
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Jason Kam retweeted
试了一下 @Jhy256 老板做的 NBA 实体卡交易平台 @MarketCardsHQ
抽中了一张保罗的衣物卡
还支持实体卡给你邮寄到家，我看台湾的兄弟 @_jimmy_chang 抽了一大堆已经收到实体卡了。
这个东西确实有点上头啊，而且比乱七八糟的 NFT 还是靠谱一些。
网站链接我放在评论区了 ⬇️
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如何利用这两个宝藏网站快速研究美股：
pod-exp.pages.dev/
bidclub.ai/
一个方法是，输入你研究的公司名、人或关键词，找出相关的播客。
这两个网站给出了文本、提炼。
属于高质量一手信息。
目前我对这两个网站的价值挖掘程度成还不到1%。
再次感谢@bidclubai @MapleLeafCap @0xmidman
以及@Jhy256 在前两周播客中的分享，打开了一扇门。
这期播客的嘉宾Jason Kam 分享了自己做的播客podcast文本提取和翻译聚合网站 bitclub.ai，太有价值了！强烈推荐。
nitter.net/MapleLeafCap/status/20…
再次强烈推荐这期播客：xiaoyuzhoufm.com/episode/6a8…
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$HOOD is undervalued given the potential its chain is showing and wall street is still sleeping on it.
ETH & SOL annualized 1-3 Bn of revenue at their peak while Base did 50-100 mm. HOOD just did a $2 mm day. Assuming DAU & TVL momentum continues it has a chance of annualizing at 300-500 mm (especially if privates are introduced + if memecoins actually start moving stock prices + real projects onboard + HOOD itself forking fomo).
$HOOD's FY26 estimate is ~5.2 Bn topline and ~1.9 Bn in profit. Given the fee is almost 70-80% incremental margins (and let's skip annualization) a 15-25% accretion to EPS is pretty juicy. Not that HOOD trades on PE multiple but don't think wallstreet is baking in perp ramp / crypto coming back either.
This name and $HYPE remain the best beta one can buy as blockchain continues on its multi-decade advance.
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A couple more thoughts:
- You could say 300-500 mm lacks imagination even. ETH / SOL really only attracted a couple hundred DAU aping these coins, maybe $HOOD can add another 0 to it, so we really should be thinking about a 3-5 Bn base.
- Wouldn't it be cool if someone launches a memecoin and LP it with $HOOD and somehow gets that hood chain fee as a buyback to gigamoon the memecoin thereby acting as a buyback to $HOOD itself.
- If I were someone like $CFND I'd try to get my shares as tokenized stock on HOOD asap lol.
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Thank you @ShanghaoJin for doing it, I enjoyed.
TLDR / digest here: bidclub.ai/e/168x-2026-08-27…
⚡️关注 168X @168X_Fortune，明晚七点一起进战情室！
🚨 8 月 27 日 19:00，168X 战情室：对话 Herman Jin @ShanghaoJin，AI 空头可以闭嘴了！
Anthropic ARR 降速，所以 AI 泡沫要破了？
Token 越来越便宜，所以需求到顶了？
GPU 买太多了，所以 CapEx 要崩了？
Herman：你们可能从第一步就想错了！
明晚七点，准时收听！
🎙 嘉宾：Herman Jin @ShanghaoJin
🎤 主持人：Mr. Z @168MrZ
🗓 8 月 27 日 19:00 东八区
nitter.net/i/spaces/1yJAPwqOgqoGb
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The financing math points to a rate shock: Dylan’s model has about $11T of CapEx from 2024–2029, with $6T cash-funded and north of $5T financed through credit. Meta raised recently at 5%–6% and would happily pay 8%; Anthropic would pay 20% on incremental debt if that is cheaper than renting capacity from SpaceX. Higher spreads reprice the economy, crush non-AI equity multiples, pressure debt-heavy countries toward default and could eventually produce interest rates in the tens of percent in the 2030s.
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