ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS FOR THE BIGGEST HIGH TFR CHRISTIAN GROUPS IN THE WEST BY JAMES
A note on projections: current growth is conserved, population estimates range wildly, and retention rates possibly aren't factored in. I would assume lower figures—always better to be conservative with expectations. I am more pessimistic than James, and note my doubts!
- By 2100, you may expect 12 million Anabaptists (Amish, Mennonites, and others like Hutterites), almost entirely in North and South America. My own take: growth will slow in the transitional period between depopulation and rapid Anabaptist growth, as the agrarian model becomes less tenable with less available cheap land, and switching occupations leads to contact with the rest of society, which lowers retention and fertility. The current Amish model relies heavily on the Amish being too culturally distinct by the time they choose to be baptized, and needing years of catching up to fit into western society.
- Also by 2100: 25 million Traditional Latin Mass (TLM) Catholics. However, even the naive extrapolation is possibly considerably lower, because current estimates of TLM suggest a shaky range of 500,000 to 5 million worldwide. You may be familiar with SSPX—they're TLM. A more conservative projection would have them at a couple million.
- Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus host about 2-3 million high fertility groups, which, by my own vibe, would be likely to at least double or triple by 2100. These groups are composed of: (1) 500k-1m Old Believers, (2) 1 million high TFR groups attached to the Russian Orthodox Church, and (3) 500k-1m unregistered Baptists and Pentecostals, many of whom also live in the rest of Europe, especially Ukrainians.
All of these groups genuinely have fertility rates in the 4+ range. They are the real deal!
- Other groups include Laestadians (mostly Finland + USA), the Dutch Bible Belt (stagnating), the Quiverfull movement (Anglosphere), and others, but none of them are large enough to break the 1 million count. They are usually in the tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of adherents.
Of course I will give it a go.
As a note all of this is abject extrapolation. There is literally no way to predict the future with a high degree of certainty.
But just going of current growth rates we are looking at 10-12 million high fertility Anabaptists in the Americas (North and South by that time).
Nunitoria has written articles on a projected 25 million TLM Catholics by the end of the century (and the majority of practicing Catholics in the west) given their current growth. Again this is extrapolations. Some current estimates say currently only 1 million Trad Catholics, a recent article I read yesterday said it could be as high as 5 million.
We will know more when a study on them is released at the start of next year.
Russia/Ukraine/Belarus also have an order of at least 3 million fast growing high fertility Whites already (this may be a large underestimation). 1 million unregistered Baptists and Pentecostals. 1 million high fertility Old Believers. And at least 1 million high fertility groups attached to the canonical ROC. Additionally you have Quiverfull in the US which is anyone's guess as to how big that is. You also have a multitude of smaller high fertility groups whos retention rates are questionable for example Laestadians in both the Nordics and the US. In the US renetion seems good but numbers are smaller at approx 50k.
These are most of the larger groups that will give you an idea. Obviously it may be substantially less than 50 million. No one really knows. But there are very positive dynamics, owing to the Tradionalist Christian belief of "as many as God sends", outlined in various passages of Scripture.