A United States invasion of Canada is unlikely but possible. This is because Trump is a Russian asset and the MAGA cult came to power in the U.S. as a consequence of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2014.
Trump has been cultivated as a Russian asset since the 1980s. Russia modelled its Trump-for-President active measure against the United States on its efforts against Ukraine using Yanukovych – dating from the Orange Revolution in 2004 to the Maidan Massacre in 2014.
Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014. The Putin regime used irregular forces – the Donetsk and Luhansk "People's Republics" – and regular forces – the "little green men" in Crimea who simply removed identifying insignia. This is the pattern of Chekist warfare Russia always adopts.
The United States failed to uphold the spirit of the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances. In 2016, Russia perfected the Trump-for-President active measure and completed its long-term effort to achieve elite capture of the Republican Party. Russia's sponsorship of the MAGA cult paid off.
The ideology of the Moscow empire is rashism: russian fascism. Rashism has all the features of Benito Mussolini's fascism mixed with Muscovy's imperialism: the supreme leader principle, ethnic purity, abuse of religion, forever wars as imperial policy, the brutal colonialism of the "Russian World," etc..
The United States has become the American Oblast of the Russian Federation. Trump has subordinated the U.S. to the rashism of the Putin regime just as Mussolini put Italy under the Nazism of the Hitler regime.
Trump breaks away from U.S. ally Canada to hie towards fascist Russia.
How might the United States go about invading Canada?
Pete Hegseth is radically transforming the U.S. military according to rashist (russian fascist) principles. He's replacing commanders loyal to the Constitution with operatives who are personally loyal to Trump.
The Trump regime is building armed paramilitaries that are outside the rule of law. ICE is attacking Americans in their communities and building concentration camps to transform the United States into an ethno-fascist state where white, Christian males hold perpetual power.
If the United States invades Canada it will do so in a pattern similar to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2014. Irregular forces similar to ICE and a degraded "just following orders" military like the U.S. armed forces are becoming are starting to look very much like Russia.
It's more likely U.S. armed aggression against Canada will look more like the Fenian Raids of the 1860s than the invasion of 1812.
However unlikely, Canadians must prepare for war the way Ukrainians do. Ukraine's volunteer battalions of 2014 should be our inspiration.
When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014, the Ukrainian armed forces were small and somewhat corrupt after the Yanukovych years. Volunteer battalions – many coming straight from Maidan – stopped the Russians in Luhansk and Donetsk.
The Canadian Armed Forces are small but getting bigger. Service members are highly professional and augmenting their capabilities in new combat domains such as drones. Canada's military is expanding reserve formations and garnering much greater support from civil society.
War with the United States is not unimaginable. Canadians are already thinking about the non-zero chance MAGA-aligned armed forces from the U.S. will invade. Inspired by Ukraine, Canada is preparing national defence with unity and purpose.