“As AI starts displacing white-collar labor (in other words, as opex on token spend replaces opex on humans)”
Only Robert can communicate complex issues with this clarity. 🐐
These are devastating charts. Europe is cooked.
The European tech industry has always lagged America’s. But AI turbocharged the gap, and it’s growing by the day.
As AI starts displacing white-collar labor (in other words, as opex on token spend replaces opex on humans), a growing share of European GDP that used to get reinvested in EU economies will instead flow to US frontier labs and hyperscalers. Euros that used to go into the pockets of the continent’s top-quartile workers will instead be converted to dollars and accrue to the retained earnings of Anthropic, OpenAI, NVIDIA, Google, and Meta.
For European tech companies, there’s no catching up. They’re not even playing the same game, let alone competing on the same field. US hyperscalers are projected to spend over $1 trillion on capex every year for the next three years; OpenAI and Anthropic are going to raise—and burn—hundreds of billions of dollars each.
Meanwhile, the EU—with its onerous regulatory burden, high barriers to entry, weak capital markets, and entrepreneurial brain drain—has:
- zero prominent frontier labs (no, Mistral doesn’t count)
- no organic hyperscalers
- minimal data centers construction, much of it owned by US companies simply trying to comply with EU data regulations
- a startup ecosystem comparable to that of a tertiary US market, at best
The continent that once gave the world steam engines, steelmaking, automobiles, synthetic fertilizer, X-rays, aspirin, nuclear fission, jet engines, and even the World Wide Web isn’t even on the map for the most disruptive technology innovation of our lifetimes.
An entire continent’s economy doomed to the permanent underclass.
It’s tragic. And it’s a tragedy entirely of their own making.