In one quarter, open-weight models went from about 30% to a record 78% of the tokens on Vercel's AI Gateway.
That's just the one gateway, on a record day, and of course these tokens aren't 1:1 revenue. But the direction of travel is hard to miss. When you can just download the model, the margins move to the infra and inference layer.
A token starts to cost what it costs to serve, and the value moves to whoever runs the model best: fastest, cheapest, at the quality the job needs.
For Europe, this changes the equation. As long as the best AI was a closed API, "European AI" meant renting capability from a few US frontier labs, served from their infrastructure.
Open weights change that. The models doing most of the work (the "Work Horse") can now run on hardware Europe controls, under European rules. That doesn't directly make Europe competitive on its own. Where the models come from still matters, and unfortunately Europe has very little compute to run them on (more on that at a later time). But the question has moved from "who builds the model" to "who runs it best."
Looks like today may be a record day for token volume % of open models on Vercel AI Gateway:
🟦 Open 78.4% 🟨 Closed 21.6%
While spend 💲 usually tells a different story, #3 and #4 today are Moonshot AI & DeepSeek. Adding Z.ai, their combined spend surpasses OpenAI (#2).
(Do note that's the spend for inference of the model across providers (mostly in the US), not revenue going directly to the open weight labs.)