Good day from
#Brussels. Here are
#my 6️⃣
#impressions on the thinking here about the elections in 🇷🇸 and the country's relations with the 🇪🇺:
1️⃣ The surprise: at the scale of the
#StudentList's win over Aleksandar
#Vučić, and at how quickly he accepted the result.
2️⃣ Good riddance, but no enthusiasm: Brussels is not mourning Vučić’s defeat, and friends of 🇷🇸 are glad. Yet there is no real enthusiasm about how a new government would approach the 🇪🇺. That judgement rests on the campaign promises and on background talks with the List's representatives, including those who came to Brussels claiming contacts and insight into its thinking.
3️⃣ The 🇲🇰/🇲🇪 comparison: the sense is that this is not a 🇲🇰 2017 moment, when the opposition took power on the wings of a civic movement and restarted stalled reforms. So far there is no Nikola
#Dimitrov or Radmila
#Sekerinska on the Student List's team. It is seen to be closer to the 2020 🇲🇪 moment, where it took years, and the 2022
#Abazović government, before Brussels got its post-2023 🇪🇺 boost under
#Spajić.
4️⃣ The von der Leyen–Costa–Kos signals were deliberate: the 🇪🇺's offer targets where the Student List says it wants to move, democracy and elections, rule of law and the judiciary, anti-corruption, media freedom. A minority of sceptics doubt this narrow approach and the 🇪🇺's ability to help, pointing to 🇦🇱.
5️⃣ Foreign policy matters, but not yet: 🇷🇺 🇽🇰 (🇧🇦) will feed into the formal steps, opening the remaining clusters and meeting the interim rule-of-law benchmarks. For now those steps feel far off: parliament must be constituted, a government appointed, presidential elections held. Only once it is clear who decides and what is decided in Belgrade will the real scope for cooperation and accession process show. What matters immediately is hope that Belgrade will let Podgorica go on deciding for itself.
6️⃣ All this fits the 🇪🇺's wider strategy: Brussels could not absorb a sudden, faster Serbian shift on reforms, including 🇷🇺🇽🇰, even if it came. It is focused on the final push on 🇲🇪, the only candidate seen as realistically able to join before this Commission's mandate ends, and without deeper internal 🇪🇺 reform.