BW financial advice is to rebalance my hype.
Bobby said they'll aggressively buy when hype is undervalued.
which way ct man
HYPE at $92
Hyperliquid Strategies has continued its aggressive accumulation of HYPE. Over three weeks, it added 4.28M HYPE ($385M), 1.4% of circulating supply and 7.5x what the Assistance Fund bought.
What stood out, however, was HYPE's weakness despite this bid, with price falling from $89 to $76. Even positive news, such as Kraken's HIP-3 announcement, had little effect. Aggressive DAT buying with weak price action indicated a lack of marginal demand beyond PURR, with holders distributing into its bid.
That made the range around $80 extremely important. 33.4M HYPE, 11% of circulating supply, changed hands inside it as sellers took profits into PURR's bid, with PURR's additions over those three weeks equalling roughly 15% of Hyperliquid's spot volume. A downside break with the main buyer stepping away would have been reflexive, likely the end of this move to the upside.
Instead, the opposite happened. HYPE reached all-time highs, sellers are exhausted, and Hyperliquid Strategies is better capitalized than three weeks ago, with cash up to $245M and a 1.24x mNAV.
For the near term, HYPE looks very positive.
Still, there is one thing I want to point out. Over the course of covering HYPE, the asset has very clearly shifted from an undervalued value play that the majority of our industry was sidelined on to very much consensus. It is clear we are pricing in a lot of growth, as revenues are down almost 50% since August last year while price is up 2x. Within crypto, a lot of optimism is now baked into the price of HYPE.
The counterpoint is that TradFi, the marginal capital, will allocate to HYPE because it expresses all the key themes of crypto (perps, spot, lending through portfolio margin, stablecoins through AQAv2), and other assets (e.g. ETH, SOL) have reached much higher multiples.
Both can be true. How you position depends on your outlook and how much risk you are willing to take. But if you entered lower on the thesis that HYPE was fundamentally undervalued, much of that valuation rerating has already happened. As the risk profile changes, it may be worth rebalancing to realise some of those gains while remaining positioned for further upside from growth and TradFi flows.
Hyperliquid