It is a Stock Picker's Market. Tweets Are Not Financial Advice

Orlando, FL
Q2 2026 Investor Letter is out. DM if you would like a copy. This past quarter felt a lot like running on a treadmill: plenty of activity, but we didn't actually go anywhere. Domestic indices were driven by an extremely narrow focus on AI and semiconductor names, largely at the expense of the rest of the economy. However, with the Iran conflict moving to the backburner (notwithstanding the recent headlines) and oil prices cooling from their highs, I expect this extreme market concentration to finally break. As market breadth begins to widen, it creates a highly constructive environment for our multi-asset portfolio going forward. YTD Sharpe Ratio: 1.20; since July 2022 Sharpe: 1.42
Q1 2026 Investor Letter is out. Despite the volatility following the outbreak of the Iran war, the portfolio delivered a 12.3% return compared to -4.6% for the S&P 500. Key highlights include: - Portfolio Resilience: Navigating the quarter with a modest 2.15% max monthly drawdown and a Sharpe Ratio of 2.80. - Strategic Themes: Why energy security, the renewed defense mandate, and U.S. fiscal fragility remain my core focus areas. - Risk Management: Tactically raising the cash position and maintaining active hedges as we navigate the ongoing uncertainty. DM me if you would like a copy of the letter.
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Claudification @agnostoxxx
I JUST GAVE AI $10,000 OF MY REAL MONEY TO INVEST IN THE STOCK MARKET I told my AI Agent to beat the stock market over the long term and don't get me a huge tax bill doing it This is what the AI bought for me: $1,470.88 of Nvidia $NVDA $1,176.58 of Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM $1,176.56 of Amazon $AMZN $1,176.54 of Microsoft $MSFT $981.36 of Eli Lilly $LLY $980.64 of Broadcom $AVGO $783.23 of Google $GOOGL $30.65 of Google $GOOGL $24.69 of Visa $V $24.69 of Eaton $ETN $24.68 of Intuitive Surgical $ISRG $2,100 of available cash I will keep you all updated going forward on how this goes 🫡
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A contrarian pick, for AI-like return in real estate. $STWD (Starwood Property Trust) has an asymmetric setup for a possible ~50% total return over the next 12 months If Treasury yields peaks and then declines back within the next year, then a combination of the current 13.3% div yield + rerating back to above its undepreciated book value ($19/share) results in close to 50% return for this best of breed lender. True Multi-Cylinder Engine: Unlike pure-play lenders exposed to a single-sector, $STWD operates across commercial lending, infrastructure, and owned real estate. Built-in Counter-Cyclical Hedge: Its Special Servicing and Investing arm actually benefits when market volatility rises, collecting servicing fees that insulate cash flows when traditional credit tightens. Office Risk Is Overblown: U.S. office makes up less than 8% of its total asset base, with the balance anchored in residential, industrial, and essential infrastructure. Unmatched Dividend Track Record: Management has maintained its quarterly dividend for over 17 yrs without a single cut through multiple rate cycles. Collecting a 13.3% cash yield while waiting for a yield-driven rerating could deliver an equity-like upside with institutional downside protection.
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B-A-N-A-N-A-S .... Republic
Trump: "Only I can make this promise to you: If the Republicans win the House and Senate, I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of America for $5,000"
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Banana Republic
HUNTER BIDEN TO LAUNCH $LAPTOP MEME COIN, SOURCES SAY -- WSJ HUNTER BIDEN'S $LAPTOP MEME COIN TO LAUNCH SEPT. 9 ON COINBASE-AFFILIATED BLOCKCHAIN, SOURCES SAY -- WSJ HUNTER BIDEN, FOUNDERS OF $LAPTOP TO HOLD 30% OF 1B TOKENS ISSUED, SOURCES SAY -- WSJ ANOTHER $LAPTOP ALLOTMENT TO GO TO PEOPLE WHO LOST MONEY ON solana:6p6xgHyF7AeE6TZkSmFsko444wqoP15icUSqi2jfGiPN, AMONG OTHERS, SOURCES SAY -- WSJ
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Multiples Capital retweeted
Sometime a chart talks to you.
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Your 401(k) is going to 8 figures just in time for a Starbucks latte to cost $100 ☕️ 🚀 h/t @erik_ywr
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Banana Republic
Breaking: Kalshi issued its first-ever lifetime ban to George Santos after the ex-congressman allegedly made bets on his own attendance at a Trump speech on.wsj.com/4qJWDOC
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Interesting ... Treasury yields rose today, dollar strengthened, crude surged - and someone forgot to tell gold about it ... up 1% 💪
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Two notable gold market updates out of China: 1. Retail Paper Gold Ban Takes Effect Chinese banks permanently closed retail paper gold trading as of July 24th. Shifting retail capital away from leveraged derivatives and into 1:1 physical bullion should provide a far stronger structural floor for prices long term. investingnews.com/china-halt… 2. June Imports Hit a 2-Year High China’s gold imports surged to approximately 173 metric tonnes in June, the highest monthly total since March 2024. Lower international prices sparked aggressive retail dip-buying and commercial bank restocking ahead of new licensing rules. kitco.com/news/article/2026-…
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So much for the deluge of Korean degenerates posts all over X ... Americans showing no one can out-degenerate us.
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What most bears miss about the US market. @erik_ywr is a fantastic thinker.
OUT NOW- WHAT IF IT'S STILL EARLY? @erik_ywr on: - why he expects S&P MELT-UP to 10,000 by 2027 - earnings growth ENORMOUS (bears are in denial) Apple🔊shorturl.at/pBZoA Spotify📽️shorturl.at/wLuvi YouTube📽️rb.gy/c6tb88
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Multiples Capital retweeted
From Matt Levine's money stuff -- according to finance professor Baolian Wang, 12% of the profits of the S&P 500 last quarter came from $GOOG, $AMZN, and $NVDA marking up shares in private investments.
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Gold looking attractive again. Prices have dipped into negative territory Year-to-Date. Not an investment advice
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Fully expect gold to whipsaw more while market and fed debates on interest rates for a month or two, and then hopefully off to races in the mid to long term
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From the liquidation flows in gold to the supply-side dynamics impacting copper - Goldman Sachs' Head of Metals Trading, Tony Kim, breaks down the pricing action behind the main commodities. A macro update: 👇 youtu.be/RR0BF-5wgWI
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Defense theme intact
Trump on Taiwan: When you look at the odds, China is very, very powerful, big country. That's a very small island. Think of it, it's 59 miles away. We're 9500 miles away. That's a little bit of a difficult problem. Taiwan was developed because we had presidents that didn't know what the hell they were doing. They stole our chip industry.
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A subtle way for Buffett to message shareholders not to write off Greg Abel just because he isn't another Warren Buffett. Killing two birds with one stone... masterful Buffett.
Greg Abel had Warren Buffett speak at start of the 2026 Berkshire Hathaway AGM. Buffett spent most of it praising Tim Cook, seated a few rows behind next to John Ternus. Since 2016, Berkshire’s $35B initial investment officially grew to $185B. “About 10 years ago, we made a commitment to move 10% of Berkshire Hathaway resources and turn it over to a person who was not well known at the time. We did that by roughly spending $35B to buy stock in Apple. We turned that money over to Apple to essentially make Berkshire look good without any work by us…which is our preferred way of operating. Ten years later, the $35B — counting dividends, realized appreciation and unrealized appreciation — has turned into $185B pretax. And I didn’t have to do a damn thing. Our largest holding is still Apple [$60B+]. When Tim Cook went into the top position at Apple [in 2011], he succeeded a legend. Steve Jobs. Everyone in America knew his name. Not many knew Tim’s name. Steve did these marvelous things, developing products and he had an untimely death. Everyone asked who would run the company. […] How would you like to step in the shoes of Steve and come through with [Cook’s record]? It’s one of the miracles of American business management. Anyway, thank you Tim.”
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Interesting to see the recent price action in $MGM, is the market finally waking up to the massive valuation gap? ​Trading at ~6.0x EV/EBITDAR (using standard rent multiples) ​Private Reality: The Northfield Park exit closed at a ~9.4x implied EBITDAR multiple ​Sector Anchor: Current buyout offers for $CZR setting a peer floor at ~9.5x. Management is effectively shorting this spread, divesting regional assets at 9x+ and buying back it's own shares, outstanding shares down 50% over last 5 years. #ubercannibal
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If a regional "racino" is worth 9.4x, what is Bellagio and MGM Macao worth? $MGM
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