Trump approval now at -22.4, his low point for the term and now lower than at any point in his first term, even after Jan. 6. By comparison, he was at a "mere" -11.6 at this point in 2018.

Sep 23, 2026 · 5:21 PM UTC

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The string of bad data continues for Republicans with Democrats making further gains in FLIPR today: natesilver.net/p/nate-silver…

FLIPR 2026 midterm election forecast

Silver Bulletin's prediction for every Senate, House, and gubernatorial election in 2026.

natesilver.net
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Replying to @NateSilver538
What I don't understand is how to square this data with the fact he got elected twice, and narrowly lost once? Is timing just everything?
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Replying to @NateSilver538
-22.4% was yesterday. Trump's approval is now at -23.0%, an all-time low and double his disapproval going into the 2018 midterms.
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Replying to @NateSilver538
Lower than Jan. 6?! Trying to overthrow the US government is bad but $7 diesel is apparently worse 😂
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Replying to @NateSilver538
Glad the public finally realizes how badly Trump fucking sucks. A good time to come to that realization since we're in a very important election cycle.
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Replying to @NateSilver538
Republicans are screwed in the midterms. Vote anyway so they can’t cheat.
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Replying to @NateSilver538
Dear Little Natey, This says far more about the pathetic, fully politicized polling than it does Trump. There has been zero--ZERO---change in GOP support for Trump (usually around 93%). You can't get those numbers with that big of a lock. But you knew that.
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Replying to @NateSilver538
Trump would be so mad if he could read this
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Replying to @NateSilver538
These midterms are going to be apocalyptical for MAGA, nothing short of an extinction level event.
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Replying to @NateSilver538
Well, that gives me some hope that the nation is finally returning to sanity.
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Replying to @NateSilver538
This says more about the polls than Trump
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Replying to @NateSilver538
Approval ratings are dog shit. It doesn’t matter. If it did, he wouldn’t have been elected twice.
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Replying to @NateSilver538
Absolutely 100% deserved. In fact, it should be lower.
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Replying to @NateSilver538
If he bans every news network that reports the true ratings... the WH press room will soon be empty....
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Replying to @NateSilver538
Trump’s poll numbers, economy, and his cognitive abilities, are worse than Biden’s ever were. Wild. What a time to be alive.
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Replying to @NateSilver538
Lower approval from gas prices than the attempted overthrow of democracy 🤷🏻‍♂️
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Replying to @NateSilver538
Sure Nate
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Replying to @NateSilver538
It’s bizarre that people don’t understand how Talerico could be favored in Texas when Beto lost by 2 in 2018 and Trump is twice as unpopular now. At some point it’s just math.
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Replying to @NateSilver538
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Replying to @NateSilver538
@realDonaldTrump is a filthy, vile disgusting pedophile who molested @IvankaTrump her entire childhood.
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Replying to @NateSilver538
Fake
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Replying to @NateSilver538
LOL! Take your fake polls and shove it up your ass! You’re one of the worst pollsters in history
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Replying to @NateSilver538
It's reasonable to doubt the validity of anyone poll but here's a graph from the times showing hundreds of polls by dozens of organizations since the beginning of this administration.
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Replying to @NateSilver538
Can you change the y-axis on these charts? No one is ever getting to +50 or +90. Could see the differences more dramatically if it was scaled in some.
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Replying to @NateSilver538
Sure Nate, keep at it. Maybe one day you won't be one of the least accurate pollsters out there.
Rasmussen Reports
@Rasmussen_Poll
Sep 23
Trump Overnight Presidential Job Approval - is in Single overnight approval for last night: 47.32% And his approval moves up again today in our 5-day avg.
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Replying to @NateSilver538
Well deserved
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Replying to @NateSilver538
This is entirely because the price of gas is high. Not even the fact that Trump directly caused it is relevant, just that gas is high in general If he wasn't dumb enough to raise the price of gas, voters would not punish Republicans for all of the other horrible things this term
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Replying to @NateSilver538
Just proof that no one loves high gas and oil prices? Gas prices is the tipping point basically
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Replying to @NateSilver538
My god. Trump’s even more unpopular than Trump.
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Replying to @NateSilver538 @sorrogrande
Slip… slip… slip!!!
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Replying to @NateSilver538
I still love him tho 😩 let’s get gas back to 3.50 and rhe approval will bounce back
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Replying to @NateSilver538
On one hand if the polls are really inaccurate it's foolish to blame Nate Silver predictions for being wrong. garbage in, garbage out. But on the other hand, you can think hard about how much predictive value these models actually have relative to just polls + basics + vibes
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Replying to @NateSilver538
Polls brought to you by Maddow and other leftist dreamers.
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Replying to @NateSilver538
Wow, Donald Trump 47 is worse than Donald Trump 45! He must be so proud!
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Replying to @NateSilver538
HE WORST REPUBLICAN IS 10X BETTER THAN ANY DEMOCRAT. END OF DISCUSSION. We are very poised to win both Senate and House- VOTE!!!!
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Replying to @NateSilver538
How else can he make up for all the bloodbath in the CRE 😂🤣
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