Weather Double-Header: Polo Hype-Check + LIVE from the Nor'easter in NYC
Followers, hope you are well. First, let's kill the
#Polo hysteria: Hurricane
#Polo has been Category 4–5 strength off Mexico's Pacific coast all week, and yes, it's historic. But the "Polo is coming for
#SoCal" narrative making the rounds? Not supported by any
@NHC_Pacific track data. Polo remains offshore, curving away from the coast, with
#Odalys nearby adding some track uncertainty via a possible Fujiwhara interaction (
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwh…), but nothing in the official cone points toward California. The real
#SoCal story is rip currents, high humidity and rough surf this weekend. That's it. Don't let the hype outrun the forecast. Look at the Euro AI image below, for precipitation for the desert southwest. Again, earlier this week I said most of the action weather wise will be east of
#Socal into the 4 corner states and Texas....and here we are.
On another note, I flew from LAX to NYC to cover this one in person. The nor'easter is genuinely rare: it's forming in late September, before nor'easter season typically ramps up, and it's already been called one of the more unusual early-season coastal storms in recent memory. On the ground: strengthening winds, coastal flooding watches from the Carolinas to New England, gusts up to 50-70 mph, and waves already pushing 12-22 feet in spots. I have posted the
@NWSNewYorkNY graphics of what to expect.
So folks, Is this the first of many this season? Too early to say for certain, as one early storm doesn't guarantee a pattern, but an unusually early, unusually strong nor'easter like this is often a signal that the storm track is already active going into fall. Worth watching closely as we head deeper into the season.
And if this were winter, not September? A system with this structure, strong onshore flow, a full moon tide assist, gusts in the 50-70 mph range, would be a legitimate heavy-snow nor'easter. We're talking the kind of setup that's dropped a foot-plus on Boston and NYC in past winters. Right now, ocean temps are still way too warm for snow, so it's all rain, but tuck this storm's structure away as a preview of what a January version of this could look like.
#ElNino Hype-Check + What Actually Matters Through Fall
The
#ElNino porn is off the chain right now, and a lot of it isn't wrong exactly -
@NWSCPC and
#NOAA are tracking a legitimately strong El Niño developing into winter 2026-27, but the way it's being packaged ("guaranteed wet winter, guaranteed mild") is way ahead of the science. Every news paper and X clickbait posters are spreading their
#elnino fear porn, like this -
nitter.net/ABC7/status/2103263624…
Here's the wrinkle nobody's talking about enough: the polar vortex. Long-range signals are already flagging a vortex that starts strong but could weaken mid-winter raising the odds of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event. If that happens, cold air outbreaks get real. But — and this is the key point — those outbreaks in a strong El Niño pattern typically get funneled east of the Divide, not sustained on the West Coast.
#SoCal tends to stay insulated under the milder Pacific-driven ridge even when the Rockies-to-Midwest-to-East are getting hammered. That's the fly in the ointment for anyone expecting a truly cold SoCal winter off this El Niño. I would follow
@judah47 and read his blog, as this is something to watch as we head thru fall into winter.
And look at the trends already: a massive nor'easter in September? That's not normal-pattern stuff. It's a preview that the storm track is already unusually active heading into fall, worth watching, not ignoring.
Also a PSA........Don't sleep on fire weather either. October is prime Santa Ana season in
#SoCal, if the winds pick up like they typically do, fuels are still dry enough that fire weather risk sticks around well into fall, El Niño or not. A wet winter forecast doesn't cancel out a dry, windy October. I have posted the Euro temp trends out west, and it looks hot the first half of the month.
Bottom line: it's early. Trends are trends, not guarantees. But between the vortex signal, this early nor'easter, and October wind season still ahead in
#socal — don't let the hype (in either direction) get ahead of the pattern. Hot, sticky, and dry can still be
#SoCal's near-term reality even in a "big El Niño winter" headline year.
More later.......
#PolarVortex #SoCalWeather #FireWeather #SantaAnaWinds #WeatherPattern #ElNino2026 #cawx #nywx #njwx
#HurricanePolo #NotHittingSoCal #Noreaster #NYCWeather #BostonWeather #EarlySeasonStorm #StormChasing #WeatherUpdate