CPI day is upon us. In this time of uneven growth, war, and debt, we agree to let the data decide where markets will move next.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's "Inflation Nowcasting" (updated yesterday) shows numbers below estimates of the 17 banks.
This seems promising. If the Fed's information suggests numbers lower than consensus, should we expect CPI to come in low today?
But this could also be a problem. If CPI comes in hot and the Fed expected lower numbers, is a hike more likely?
Personally, I don't think the threshold for a hike has been met. Rates were arguably too high for too long. The bond issue is more related to foreign and fiscal policy than monetary policy. Housing is about 40% of CPI, yet it is the worst data collected: owners' equivalent is theoretical, and data from rental contracts from 6-12 months ago lags terribly. Housing data for August 2026 should reflect market prices for August 2026.
Warsh is aware of the inadequacies of Fed data, and I don't think he wants to make a policy mistake right now. In early July he said this:
"My aspiration is that nine to 12 months from now we're going to be using new technologies to understand what's happening in the real economy in a contemporaneous, real-time way that positions us as central bankers to make better decisions, that we're no longer going to have to rely solely on data that we get from government agencies with mismeasurement problems that have surveys that are no longer relevant."
"My favorite data is upon us, and if we do our jobs, we'll be here a year from now, and we'll say we've discovered data that helps us make better decisions."
August core CPI estimates from those who have shared them: The median is 0.22%.
All 17 estimates (ranging from 0.16% to 0.24%) round to 0.2%.
August PPI components that feed into the PCE were firm, so a consensus CPI might lead to a slightly higher August core PCE.
Fed-funds futures have already shifted to 70% chance of a Sept hike this morning as they do the math.