The suggestion that the Conservative Party has somehow recovered sufficiently to contemplate winning the next general election outright simply does not correspond with the scale of what happened to it in 2024, or with what has happened since.
After fourteen and a half years in government, the Conservatives left office with the country carrying an enormous burden of public debt, an electorate deeply divided and an economy that had endured years of political and economic upheaval. Whatever excuses may now be offered for individual events during that period, the judgement of the electorate was devastating.
Labour’s landslide was not produced by some enormous surge in the Labour vote. Labour secured 33.7 per cent of the vote, while the Conservative vote collapsed to just 23.7 per cent. The Conservatives fell from 365 seats in 2019 to only 121 in 2024. Millions of people who had previously voted Conservative either stayed at home or transferred their support elsewhere, including to Reform UK.
And the decline did not end on election night. The Conservatives emerged from the election with just 121 MPs and, since then, a further 21 have walked across the floor and defected to Reform. On that mathematics, 121 minus 21 leaves them with only 100 MPs today. Those MPs who crossed the floor are no longer Conservative MPs; they are Reform MPs. There is nothing constitutionally preventing an elected Member of Parliament from changing political allegiance while retaining his or her seat.
That is an extraordinary position from which to claim that the Conservative Party has somehow rebuilt itself sufficiently to win an election outright. It was reduced from 365 MPs to 121 and, following those subsequent defections, is now down to around 100. At the same time, the Conservative electoral coalition that disintegrated in 2024 has fragmented across Reform, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and those who simply chose not to vote Conservative at all.
No one has simply forgotten fourteen and a half years of Conservative government or the circumstances in which it ended. You cannot suffer a defeat of that magnitude, lose such an enormous proportion of your parliamentary representation, see further MPs walk across the floor to Reform and then simply declare, within a single parliamentary term, that the party is once again ready to govern.
That is why Kevin Hollinrake’s declaration that the Conservatives are now the “least hated political party” is so revealing. Being able to say that fewer people actively dislike you than before is not evidence that those who abandoned you have returned. Nor is it evidence that the trust destroyed during the Conservatives’ final years in government has somehow been restored.
The fundamental question therefore remains: where is the evidence of this supposed Conservative recovery? Declaring themselves ready for a snap election is one thing. Rebuilding the enormous electoral coalition they lost in 2024 is quite another.