Bear markets pale in comparison to bull markets, both in market movement and duration. A good reminder for every long-term investor.

Sep 22, 2026 · 11:48 PM UTC

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Replying to @PeterMallouk
This is the type of stuff that NEVER gets posted during a secular bear market but is always put out in the later innings of a secular bull. Total real return was 0 from 1962 to 1982 and from 2000-2013. Its coming Peter.
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Replying to @PeterMallouk
Absolutely
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Replying to @PeterMallouk
Bear mariets are the best moment to re-build your Portfolio with outstanding businesses at bargain price. I personally enjoy such red days. Made most of my profits navigating them.
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Replying to @PeterMallouk
Long-term perspective makes downturns easier
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Replying to @PeterMallouk
The losses are held amongst wage earners.
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Replying to @PeterMallouk
A 5 year bear market would be interesting
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Replying to @PeterMallouk
Past ≠ future, but long time horizons still help smooth out the noise, even if the next cycle looks different! 😎
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Replying to @PeterMallouk
except all of those numbers were printed in a time before our debt to GDP ratio was more than 100% so... not really comparable to now
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Replying to @PeterMallouk
Teaching class to young Engineers in 09 Bear. Waiting to start I asked: Everyone contributing to their 401K? Young guy stood up and said we all stopped because we are sick of loosing money. I replied in 20 years what you lost will not matter. What you put in at a low price will!
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Replying to @PeterMallouk
Somewhat deceptive looking. The 'lost decade' from 2000 to 2010 had no growth. If you retired during this period without a pension you'd be in rough shape without a hefty portfolio.
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Replying to @PeterMallouk
The difficult part is remembering this while you’re actually living through the bear market. Long-term investing requires surviving the periods when long term suddenly feels very far away.
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Replying to @PeterMallouk
You’ve never experienced a real bear market.
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Replying to @PeterMallouk
You need to adjust for same time Period every $1 increase in the M2 is a $1 decrease in value. Otherwise you’re just looking at nominal rates.
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Replying to @PeterMallouk
I think this hides a key aspect - take the 2008 sell off. The S&P500 high of Oct 2007 was taken out some time in 2013 meaning a little over 4 years or so. The subsequent bull market is basically calculated from the bottom and is bound to appear longer than the bear market.
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Replying to @PeterMallouk
"Getting hit by a car pales in comparison to 15 years of physiotherapy"
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Replying to @PeterMallouk
Now show this chart with inflation, dollar debasement, money printing and all the other crony shit Washington has done
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Replying to @PeterMallouk
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Replying to @PeterMallouk
Spent some time thinking about this. Most including me see the bear market length as not when it starts gaining again. We see it as when the market get back to its previous value or more important when our portfolio surpasses its previous peak. Both are much longer periods.
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Replying to @PeterMallouk
These numbers are deceiving. You can’t go down 600% only 0-100… you can get crushed 80% and then again and then the 600% isn’t as big as it looks. Look at penny stocks.
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Replying to @PeterMallouk
You mean to say historically* Past performance is not an indicator of future movements. The world is changing and I believe the stock market is about to undergo a large likely financially violent change.
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Replying to @PeterMallouk
Nice chart. Don’t be a bear long term
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Replying to @PeterMallouk
Bulls run 5.3 years and average +254%. Bears last barely a year at -31% and people still trade like they're the same size threat
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Replying to @PeterMallouk
Really appreciate this style of market commentary. Clear explanation, useful context, and no unnecessary distractions. You and @salutemekhalil are both great follows.
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Replying to @PeterMallouk
Dumb bull always makes more money than the over thinking bear that is scared to take risk.
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Replying to @PeterMallouk
The hard part isn’t knowing, but staying invested when the bear market makes that feel impossible.
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Replying to @PeterMallouk
If you go into a -50% bear market with a full index/beta allocation it could easily take 10+ years to reach previous highs. This is why I would be a stock picker right now and stay away from heavy AI and mega cap exposure.
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Replying to @PeterMallouk
Being a delusional perma bull is not merely a meme, it’s literally the optimal and most +EV way to play the game
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Replying to @PeterMallouk
Yes, I agree with you on the S&P 500. I would argue that crypto bear markets are longer than bull markets. But hopefully that changes one day.
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Replying to @PeterMallouk @charliebilello
I see these charts but also see that bears will kill you in a microslice of time. Bulls will take much much longer to recover and the climb is harder. Eg a 50% bull market drop requires a 100% rebound to get to break even.
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Replying to @PeterMallouk
max spy bear market is 2.5 years, then mid 1.5, so max pain perhaps about 2 years drop hodl
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Replying to @PeterMallouk
this right here is all the evidence you need to realize that ignoring all people that push bear market fears 24/7 will give you better peace of mind
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Replying to @PeterMallouk
Recoveries from bear markets are painful
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Replying to @PeterMallouk
Show it in dollars adjusted to monetary dilution.
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Replying to @PeterMallouk
Yes but how do you define long term? in a short period of time it can wipe of half of the previous 10 years of gains.
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Replying to @PeterMallouk
I’m definitely not calling this a confirmed bull market yet. The better move for me is staying flexible and letting the market prove the trend.
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Replying to @PeterMallouk
Sure, just take care when you jump in.
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