The Other Side of Every Trade: DDC
$DDC trades at a $12.7M market cap against $251M of bitcoin (2,899 BTC). 0.05x.
I've spent some time looking at the details and working out why. What's happening:
• A July 2025 convertible that converts at 94% of the lowest close of the prior ten days, no floor, first lien on the bitcoin. ~$17M is still outstanding. At Monday's price that's 83M new shares against 59M in issue. The holder converts, sells, waits for the low to reset, converts again.
• The share count went 8.3M → 56.8M in thirteen months. The bitcoin went 3.3x. Bitcoin per share is down 43%.
• Stock down 66% since an H1 print that cut liabilities by $50M. On Monday bitcoin rose 6.6% and DDC fell 9.6% on 72M shares. The balance sheet improves and the equity doesn't notice, because it isn't the equity's balance sheet anymore.
Management's side of the table:
• 875,000 Class B shares issued to the CEO at par for $14,000, eight weeks after the note. Vote raised from 10 to 100 a share. 75.5% of the vote for less than a used car.
• A warrant pool that resets every year to 25% of the count, strike at the board's discretion. Grants struck at $0.16 while the stock was at $10.
• A second evergreen registered in August. A $10M buyback with zero shares bought.
• Norma Chu ran equity research at HSBC before this. The three independent directors are the entire audit, compensation and nominating committees. They approved all of it!
They either didn't understand what they signed in the summer of 2025, or they understood it and built themselves a position the terms can't reach. Both are bad and disqualify the equity for a minority holder.
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